Which blue state legislatures are GOP likely to flip in 2020s/2030s?

[Suburbia]

Regardless of political gerrymandering and political advantages, which blue state legislatures can you see Republicans flipping in the 2020s and 2030s?

I can honestly see CT, NJ and IL....three states with corruption, two blue states where voters don't like to pay high taxes but vote Democratic because the GOP is abysmal.

https://ballotpedia.org/Gubernatorial_and_legislative_party_control_of_state_government

[LabourJersey]

I can't imagine most of these legislatures every going for the GOP under the current alignment. Normally when voters are fed up with the Democratic party in these states they vote for a GOP governor, not GOP state legislators.

[Lord Admirale]

The problem with New Jersey is that its very gerrymandered and it looks like it will only get worse (thanks to Sweeney and Coughlin)

[Skill and Chance]

Except for the Southwest and a couple of the very most urban states elsewhere (HI/MA), it's usually easier for Republicans to control a legislative chamber than to win statewide with the current party coalitions.  Because of this, I would classify almost all of the legislatures Democrats still controlled in 2017 as safe for them for a long time.  Of this list, I think RI is by far the most likely to flip within 20 years because of the potential for a WV-style crack up of the ancestral party machine as the national party moves away from them ideologically. 

The next most likely is probably OR because the problem of geographic concentration of the Dem base in Portland is getting more acute.  Then I would put DE next because of the tight margins in the recent past and the possibility of a Dem collapse outside of Wilmington proper.  I don't see NJ or CT moving right much with the current coalitions.

[Gass3268]

Except for the Southwest and a couple of the very most urban states elsewhere (HI/MA), it's usually easier for Republicans to control a legislative chamber than to win statewide with the current party coalitions.  Because of this, I would classify almost all of the legislatures Democrats still controlled in 2017 as safe for them for a long time.  Of this list, I think RI is by far the most likely to flip within 20 years because of the potential for a WV-style crack up of the ancestral party machine as the national party moves away from them ideologically. 

The next most likely is probably OR because the problem of geographic concentration of the Dem base in Portland is getting more acute.  Then I would put DE next because of the tight margins in the recent past and the possibility of a Dem collapse outside of Wilmington proper.  I don't see NJ or CT moving right much with the current coalitions.

I could see a weakening for the Democrats in RI, but it's too urban for me to see a total collapse.

[S019]

Obviously ME and NV followed by CO
Of Safe D states
CT and maybe IL, just because Dems have a bad name in those two states

[Nyvin]

The Portland Metro makes up over 60% of Oregon's population,  and fast growing areas like Bend are trending left too.    Trump only won 10 State Senate districts in Oregon out of 30 and redistricting will only help Democrats more since all the growth is in the Urban areas.   

Oregon's legislatures could easily go to Supermajority D within 20 years.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

The Portland Metro makes up over 60% of Oregon's population,  and fast growing areas like Bend are trending left too.    Trump only won 10 State Senate districts in Oregon out of 30 and redistricting will only help Democrats more since all the growth is in the Urban areas.   

Oregon's legislatures could easily go to Supermajority D within 20 years.

Actually, it's more like 45% in Portland, but both chambers already are supermajority D, and they could only realistically lose a couple of D seats on the coast. Anyway, in 10 years, I fully expect Salem, Albany, Medford, and Bend to be voting 55%+ D, plus the already stratospheric levels in Portland, Eugene, and Corvallis. Where do new R votes come from? Coos Bay, LOL?

[Nyvin]

The Portland Metro makes up over 60% of Oregon's population,  and fast growing areas like Bend are trending left too.    Trump only won 10 State Senate districts in Oregon out of 30 and redistricting will only help Democrats more since all the growth is in the Urban areas.   

Oregon's legislatures could easily go to Supermajority D within 20 years.

Actually, it's more like 45% in Portland, but both chambers already are supermajority D, and they could only realistically lose a couple of D seats on the coast. Anyway, in 10 years, I fully expect Salem, Albany, Medford, and Bend to be voting 55%+ D, plus the already stratospheric levels in Portland, Eugene, and Corvallis. Where do new R votes come from? Coos Bay, LOL?

I didn't say "Portland" I said Portland Metro.  When I say supermajority I think 67%,  but 3/5th I guess is legally supermajority in Oregon.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

The Portland Metro makes up over 60% of Oregon's population,  and fast growing areas like Bend are trending left too.    Trump only won 10 State Senate districts in Oregon out of 30 and redistricting will only help Democrats more since all the growth is in the Urban areas.   

Oregon's legislatures could easily go to Supermajority D within 20 years.

Actually, it's more like 45% in Portland, but both chambers already are supermajority D, and they could only realistically lose a couple of D seats on the coast. Anyway, in 10 years, I fully expect Salem, Albany, Medford, and Bend to be voting 55%+ D, plus the already stratospheric levels in Portland, Eugene, and Corvallis. Where do new R votes come from? Coos Bay, LOL?

I didn't say "Portland" I said Portland Metro.  When I say supermajority I think 67%,  but 3/5th I guess is legally supermajority in Oregon.

That is for the 3 county metro area. You have to subtract the parts in Washington if you want an accurate Oregon vote share.

[smoltchanov]

Of these - probably Maine, but even that is not so likely.

[MarkD]

I can see Colorado flipping before any of the others on the list.

[LoneStarDem]

CO is a deep Blue State & continuing it's blue trend.

ME: I do see the GOP flipping one or both chambers of the ME State Legislature.