TX Legislature: Theoretical path to majority in state house for Dems

[Doimper]

https://twitter.com/emilshabanovTX/status/1100090614182543360

Wonder if Republicans are going to take a shot at shoring up the gerrymander before 2020.

[_]

Whoever that is should make that path to the Majority a reality and run themselves.

[Boobs]

Can someone post how much each of those 9 Republicans won re-election by? I’m at work so can’t unfortunately. Iirc, everyone had a close race except for Sarah Davis who ironically holds the bluest seat held by a Republican

Bohac (Houston), Shaheen (Plano) and Meyer (Dallas/Park Cities) all won by less than 0.5%. Those are the ones I remember off the top of my head.

The rest won by various margins, usually by less than 5%. There were also a few Reps in Cruz-carried districts who won by 2%-8%

[Oryxslayer]

Here's the actual image. And there is also a close (93 votes) Cruz seat in South Tarrant, so there is a tiny bit of wiggle room.

[lfromnj]

Can someone post how much each of those 9 Republicans won re-election by? I’m at work so can’t unfortunately. Iirc, everyone had a close race except for Sarah Davis who ironically holds the bluest seat held by a Republican

Im pretty sure Even Clinton won all 14 Dallas districts Basically when South Dallas swings 1-2 points R in 2016(lower african american turnout) but Dallas county overall swings 10 points left most of that swing is gonna be Romney Clintons in North Dallas.

[lfromnj]

Yeah the DNC should just disband if they don’t make flipping the TX House a top priority in 2020

Clearly money must be spent in the important swing state of Ohio.

[Zaybay]

Yeah the DNC should just disband if they don’t make flipping the TX House a top priority in 2020

Clearly money must be spent in the important swing state of Ohio.

Clearly the Ds should just spend money in 3 states and not make any plays for anything else.

[lfromnj]

Yeah the DNC should just disband if they don’t make flipping the TX House a top priority in 2020

Clearly money must be spent in the important swing state of Ohio.

Clearly the Ds should just spend money in 3 states and not make any plays for anything else.

Clearly the democrat base will donate specifically to individual state legislature races over the person they hate most (Trump.)

[Beet]

Can someone post how much each of those 9 Republicans won re-election by? I’m at work so can’t unfortunately. Iirc, everyone had a close race except for Sarah Davis who ironically holds the bluest seat held by a Republican

I think a 6% win still counts as a close race, especially considering she had a high profile primary to burnish her moderate credentials and a no-name, underfunded novice opponent.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1100079035244138496

[Beet]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1100079035244138496

Yeah that's why TX-Gov was such an important race in 2018. But in the thread of "which gov races would you flip" most Dems listed fl, oh, ga, etc. and hardly anyone said TX.

That being said flipping the state house is still crucial to prevent the GOP from pulling NC and WI style tricks of denying the powers of any future Dem statewide officials that are elected.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1100079035244138496

Yeah that's why TX-Gov was such an important race in 2018. But in the thread of "which gov races would you flip" most Dems listed fl, oh, ga, etc. and hardly anyone said TX.

That being said flipping the state house is still crucial to prevent the GOP from pulling NC and WI style tricks of denying the powers of any future Dem statewide officials that are elected.

Oh 100% agree, also I have to imagine the commission might be a little less awful then the state legislature would be. Maybe wrong, but I can hope.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1100079035244138496

Yeah that's why TX-Gov was such an important race in 2018. But in the thread of "which gov races would you flip" most Dems listed fl, oh, ga, etc. and hardly anyone said TX.

That being said flipping the state house is still crucial to prevent the GOP from pulling NC and WI style tricks of denying the powers of any future Dem statewide officials that are elected.

Oh 100% agree, also I have to imagine the commission might be a little less awful then the state legislature would be. Maybe wrong, but I can hope.

Was this commission a good part of the reason why Dems lost the state House in the 2002 elections?

[Indy Texas]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1100079035244138496

Yeah that's why TX-Gov was such an important race in 2018. But in the thread of "which gov races would you flip" most Dems listed fl, oh, ga, etc. and hardly anyone said TX.

That being said flipping the state house is still crucial to prevent the GOP from pulling NC and WI style tricks of denying the powers of any future Dem statewide officials that are elected.

Oh 100% agree, also I have to imagine the commission might be a little less awful then the state legislature would be. Maybe wrong, but I can hope.

Was this commission a good part of the reason why Dems lost the state House in the 2002 elections?

Yes. Because at that point there really wasn't a way they could have kept a majority without some ridiculous gerrymandering.

I would guess 2020 redistricting will give the Republicans an opportunity to yank a few seats back for a few more cycles. Part of the problem is that if the marginal deciding voters in Texas are now white suburbanites who largely break for one party or the other for idiosyncratic reasons, it would be very hard to gerrymander in a way that favors one party or the other.

Meanwhile, rural Texas - where the truly safe Republican districts are - will just keep losing districts to the Houston/DFW/Austin suburbs.

[CatoMinor]

For the Texas Senate in 2020 the following are up:

Alvarado (D) SD-6, Safe D
Birdwell (R) SD-22, Safe R
Buckingham (R) SD-24, Safe R
Creighton (R) SD-4, Safe R
Flores (R) SD-19, Safe D (Flores won in a special election with extremely low turnout, lowest hanging fruit for Dems to pickup.)
Hinojosa (D) SD-20, Safe D
Hughes (R) SD-1, Safe R
Kolkhorst (R) SD-18, Safe R
Lucio (D) SD-27, Safe D
Menendez (D) SD-26, Safe D
Miles (D) SD-13, Safe D
Nelson (R) SD-12, Likely R (Would be difficult to flip, but as the DFW slips away from the GOP it is worth keeping an eye on)
Perry (R) SD-28, Safe R
Rodriguez (D) SD-29, Safe D
Taylor (R) SD-11, Safe R
Zaffirini (D) SD-21, Safe D

Democrats might pick up a couple seats, but the Senate Chamber will remain Republican for the time being. What will be interesting to watch however is if Dems pick up at least 1 seat, which is almost a certainty, they will pull the Senate GOP under the 19 they need for a procedural majority.

[lfromnj]

Holy sh**t just looked at Texas 26th State house

Its Sugar Land in Fort bend and went from +27 Romney to a Beto win. WTF.

[Politician]

Holy sh**t just looked at Texas 26th State house

Its Sugar Land in Fort bend and went from +27 Romney to a Beto win. WTF.

Is it Republican held?

[lfromnj]

Holy sh**t just looked at Texas 26th State house

Its Sugar Land in Fort bend and went from +27 Romney to a Beto win. WTF.

Is it Republican held?

Yes

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1100079035244138496

Yeah that's why TX-Gov was such an important race in 2018. But in the thread of "which gov races would you flip" most Dems listed fl, oh, ga, etc. and hardly anyone said TX.

That being said flipping the state house is still crucial to prevent the GOP from pulling NC and WI style tricks of denying the powers of any future Dem statewide officials that are elected.

Oh 100% agree, also I have to imagine the commission might be a little less awful then the state legislature would be. Maybe wrong, but I can hope.

Was this commission a good part of the reason why Dems lost the state House in the 2002 elections?

Yes. Because at that point there really wasn't a way they could have kept a majority without some ridiculous gerrymandering.

I would guess 2020 redistricting will give the Republicans an opportunity to yank a few seats back for a few more cycles. Part of the problem is that if the marginal deciding voters in Texas are now white suburbanites who largely break for one party or the other for idiosyncratic reasons, it would be very hard to gerrymander in a way that favors one party or the other.

Meanwhile, rural Texas - where the truly safe Republican districts are - will just keep losing districts to the Houston/DFW/Austin suburbs.

The backup commission dominated by the statewide officeholders would seem to change the game dramatically.  Even if the state house flips, the commission would still be 4R/1D and would only need 3 votes to draw and approve the maps.  They may be less aggressive than the legislature would be because they are up for statewide reelection one year later and in the state house they would be limited by the ban on unnecessary county splits in the state constitution, but they can probably still gerrymander enough to flip the state house back in 2022, which means Democrats have to pick up TX-GOV in 2022 or the new Republican controlled legislature will just do a mid decade redraw the congressional map in 2023 like they did back in 2003.

However, this process makes it possible to control legislative redistricting just by winning statewide offices (GOV to veto the maps, plus 3 of LG, AG, Comptroller, and Land Commissioner), which would could advantage Democrats in 2030 and beyond.  And it's written into the state constitution, so it could not easily be repealed.

It’s basically the same as that stupid Ohio rule for drawing the legislature.  The party lucky enough to win a majority of statewide offices in the zero year draws the legislature for a decade.

[Horus]

Holy sh**t just looked at Texas 26th State house

Its Sugar Land in Fort bend and went from +27 Romney to a Beto win. WTF.

Is it Republican held?

Yes

I remember reading in article in 2004 about how Sugar Land was the dead center of Bush-era conservatism. My how the times have changed.

[CatoMinor]

Holy sh**t just looked at Texas 26th State house

Its Sugar Land in Fort bend and went from +27 Romney to a Beto win. WTF.

Is it Republican held?

Yes

I remember reading in article in 2004 about how Sugar Land was the dead center of Bush-era conservatism. My how the times have changed.

The combination of losing Fort Bend and Tarrant counties should be setting off emergency alarms for the TXGOP. If Denton and Collin counties flip then that's game.

[LoneStarDem]

I just cannot see the TX Dems winning back both chambers of the TX State Legislature in my lifetime.

[lfromnj]

I just cannot see the TX Dems winning back both chambers of the TX State Legislature in my lifetime.

im pretty sure beto won 15 senate districts.

[LoneStarDem]

US Energy Secretary Rick Perry endorses Buzbee in Houston Mayoral contest according to the TX Scorecard website.

Might be time for someone on the Atlas Forums to start a thread on the 2019 Houston, TX Mayoral contest.

Other Mayoral contests in 2019:

San Antonio: Incumbent Mayor Ron Nirenberg announced his candidacy for reelection & will be facing District 6 Councilman Greg Brockhouse in the May 4th, 2019 election.

Dallas (Open): Outgoing Mayor Mike Rawlings (D) is term limited from seeking a 3rd term, the list of candidates running to replace him in the May 4th, 2019 election include:

Mike Ablon: Real estate developer

Albert Black: Chairman of the Dallas Housing Authority

District 1 Councilman Scott Griggs

State Rep. Eric Johnson (D-Dallas)

Former State Rep. Jason Villalba (R-Dallas)

Fort Worth: Incumbent Mayor Betsy Price (R) is seeking reelection to 5th term. Tarrant County Democratic Party Chairwoman Deborah Peoples (D) is running.

Arlington: Incumbent Mayor Jeff Williams (R) is seeking reelection. Chris Dobson is running against him.

[Boobs]

I just cannot see the TX Dems winning back both chambers of the TX State Legislature in my lifetime.

are you like 80 years old or something