Morning Consult nat poll: Biden 29% Sanders 27% Harris 10% O’Rourke 7% Warren 7%

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult national poll, conducted Feb. 18-24:

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

Biden 29%
Sanders 27%
Harris 10%
O’Rourke 7%
Warren 7%
Booker 4%
Klobuchar 3%
Bloomberg 2%
Brown 1%
Bullock 1%
Buttigieg 1%
Castro 1%
Delaney 1%
Gabbard 1%
Gillibrand 1%
Hickenlooper 1%
Holder 1%
McAuliffe 1%
Inslee 0%

[Mr. Morden]

fav/unfav % among Dems:
Biden 76/12% for +64%
Sanders 75/15% for +60%
Warren 54/17% for +37%
Harris 48/13% for +35%
O’Rourke 42/9% for +33%
Booker 41/13% for +28%
Holder 31/13% for +18%
Klobuchar 29/11% for +18%
Gillibrand 31/14% for +17%
Castro 26/11% for +15%
Brown 23/9% for +14%
Bloomberg 33/23% for +10%
Hickenlooper 13/8% for +5%
Buttigieg 12/7% for +5%
McAuliffe 15/11% for +4%
Gabbard 15/11% for +4%
Delaney 14/10% for +4%
Inslee 10/8% for +2%
Bullock 10/8% for +2%

2nd choices of Biden supporters:
Sanders 28%
Harris 12%
Warren 8%

2nd choice of O’Rourke supporters:
Sanders 22%
Biden 20%
Harris 12%

2nd choice of Sanders supporters:
Biden 26%
Warren 16%
Harris 7%

2nd choice of Harris supporters:
Biden 19%
Sanders 15%
Warren 14%

2nd choice of Warren supporters:
Sanders 24%
Biden 17%
Harris 13%

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Sanders with a 6% announcement bump, not bad

[Xing]

I await a cordial, reasonable conversation from Atlas about this poll.

Anyway, it does figure that Sanders would get a bump from his announcement, and it is one poll, but Harris should hope that these numbers are anomalies, especially the ones suggesting that a strong plurality of Biden's supporters would go to Sanders.

[Skye]

This is a very good poll for Bernie, and that must be said.

[Sestak]

Not just saying it for this poll, and I will continue saying it as the numbers inevitably shift around; anything from Morning Consult should be taken with a grain of salt.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bernie is favored in IA and NH, but primaries go well past the first in nation states. Its not a winner take all delegate count

[wbrocks67]

Considering Biden could not be more different than Bernie, I'd find it hard to believe that a majority of his 2nd choicers would go to Bernie

[Politician]

But I thought Bernie was DOA!

Face it: if Biden doesn't run, Bernie has a 90%+ chance to be the nominee.

[Gustaf]

Considering Biden could not be more different than Bernie, I'd find it hard to believe that a majority of his 2nd choicers would go to Bernie

I Think it's clear that those are just name rec voters. Note that this also goes the other way around. A quarter of Sanders' supporters say Biden is their second choice, those people can't know what they're doing either. I suspect a lot of Biden's support and probably a fair bit of Sanders' is pretty soft.

[OneJ]

I await a cordial, reasonable conversation from Atlas about this poll.

Anyway, it does figure that Sanders would get a bump from his announcement, and it is one poll, but Harris should hope that these numbers are anomalies, especially the ones suggesting that a strong plurality of Biden's supporters would go to Sanders.

I was thinking the same especially since many of Biden's supporters are some of the same ones Harris should theoretically either do well with or target. Fortunately for her is that many Democratic voters are fluid and we have slightly less than a year until the primaries start.

Considering Biden could not be more different than Bernie, I'd find it hard to believe that a majority of his 2nd choicers would go to Bernie

I Think it's clear that those are just name rec voters. Note that this also goes the other way around. A quarter of Sanders' supporters say Biden is their second choice, those people can't know what they're doing either. I suspect a lot of Biden's support and probably a fair bit of Sanders' is pretty soft.

According to this, 51% said that Biden is among their top choices compared to just 38% for Sanders so you're right that support for Bernie is still soft right now.

[Shadows]

fav/unfav % among Dems:
Biden 76/12% for +64%
Sanders 75/15% for +60%
Warren 54/17% for +37%
Harris 48/13% for +35%
O’Rourke 42/9% for +33%
Booker 41/13% for +28%
Holder 31/13% for +18%
Klobuchar 29/11% for +18%
Gillibrand 31/14% for +17%
Castro 26/11% for +15%
Brown 23/9% for +14%
Bloomberg 33/23% for +10%
Hickenlooper 13/8% for +5%
Buttigieg 12/7% for +5%
McAuliffe 15/11% for +4%
Gabbard 15/11% for +4%
Delaney 14/10% for +4%
Inslee 10/8% for +2%
Bullock 10/8% for +2%

2nd choices of Biden supporters:
Sanders 28%
Harris 12%
Warren 8%

2nd choice of O’Rourke supporters:
Sanders 22%
Biden 20%
Harris 12%

2nd choice of Sanders supporters:
Biden 26%
Warren 16%
Harris 7%

2nd choice of Harris supporters:
Biden 19%
Sanders 15%
Warren 14%

2nd choice of Warren supporters:
Sanders 24%
Biden 17%
Harris 13%

Any idea what happens if Biden doesn't run & if both Biden & O'rourke doesn't run.

How big is the gap between Bernie & Harris ?

[Zaybay]

whoops, Im pretty late for this update :

Previous Poll numbers/Current Poll numbers/Change

Biden: 30%/29% (-1%)
Sanders: 21%/27% (+6%)
Harris: 11%/10%  (-1%)
Warren: 8%/7% (-1%)
Booker: 5%/4%  (-1%)
O' Rourke: 7%/7%  (+/-0%)
Bloomberg: 2%/2% (+/-0%)
Klobuchar: 3%/3%  (+/-0%)

All other candidates received 1% or less.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Biden doesnt run, Harris and Sanders primary

[Harlow]

Not just saying it for this poll, and I will continue saying it as the numbers inevitably shift around; anything from Morning Consult should be taken with a grain of salt.

Is there any polling company Atlas will take seriously? Just curious. It seems like every poll that's posted here has somebody saying something along these lines.

[MT Treasurer]

Name recognition, Morning Consult is a fairly bad pollster, the field is still very crowded (which will change over time and particularly after IA/NH/NV/SC/...), etc.

[PaperKooper]

For reference, 538 gives Morning Consult a B-, Emerson a B+, and Harris a C+.  The only better pollster this year has been Monmouth which gets an A+. 

[IceSpear]

The fact that the second choice of Biden voters is Sanders and vice versa pretty much confirms that this is just a name recognition test this early on. Of course, anyone with common sense already knew that.

[IceSpear]

Considering Biden could not be more different than Bernie, I'd find it hard to believe that a majority of his 2nd choicers would go to Bernie

Name recognition.

Face it: if Biden doesn't run, Bernie has a 90%+ chance to be the nominee.

I can tell this is your first primary if you genuinely believe having a 10 point lead or whatever 11 months before a primary election is insurmountable. At this point in 2015 Jeb Bush was leading the Republican field, Trump was at 0%, and Hillary had like a 70 point lead on Bernie who was at 0%.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Biden voters 2nd choices:
Bernie 28%
Harris 12%
Warren 8%

In other words, they basically keep the same proportions for the other candidates.

[MT Treasurer]

Biden voters 2nd choices:
Bernie 28%
Harris 12%
Warren 8%

In other words, they basically keep the same proportions for the other candidates.

Probably a fairly small sample size, so why would you draw any conclusions from that?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Face it: if Biden doesn't run, Bernie has a 90%+ chance to be the nominee.

Fake news.