How much of Democratic trends among the "college educated" are due to women/POC?
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  How much of Democratic trends among the "college educated" are due to women/POC?
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Author Topic: How much of Democratic trends among the "college educated" are due to women/POC?  (Read 620 times)
Del Tachi
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« on: February 26, 2019, 12:04:26 PM »

It's recently been the case that college educated voters have trended substantially toward the Democrats, going from a Republican-leaning demographic in the 1990s to a Democratic-leaning one today.  This bore itself out in 2016 and 2018, with Democrats doing well in many well-educated suburbs.

Some liberals (wishfully) see this as a realignment of the Democratic Party towards all things cosmopolitian and elite.  However, how much of this trend has to do with a college education becoming more attainable for women and racial minorities?

Only 19.4% of Black and 16.1% of Hispanic 18-to-24 year olds were enrolled in college in 1980, compared with 27.3% of Whites.  By 2013, these numbers had shifted:  college participation rates for Blacks and Hispanics had almost doubled (to 34.2% and 33.8%, respectively) while for Whites it climed to 41.6%.  That's a 52% growth in college participation for Whites between 1980 and 2013, compared to 109% for Hispanics and 76% for Blacks. 

The numbers are similarly striking for women.  Women had a 25.0% participation in 1980 (compared to 26.4% for men).  By 2013, 18-to-24 year old women had college participation rates of 43.3% whereas for men it was 36.6%.  Once again, we seem big gains among women (73% growth in participation) and more paltry increased among men (39% growth).

Statistics linked here.  Table 302.60.

College-educated White men are still very Republican (preferred Trump by 14 points in 2016), unfortunately I can't find exit polling data broken down by education-race-gender prior to 2016 to see how that has shifted over-time.

So, is that the story of Democratic gains among educated voters?  I don't buy the idea that getting a college education turns conservatives into liberals.  It's just that the changing demographics of college graduates (more female, less White) has made the college educated less of a natural Republican constituency. 
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #1 on: February 26, 2019, 12:54:36 PM »

If I had to totally guess:

30% former Republicans "leaving the party"
30% more minorities and women becoming college graduates
40% Millennials in general aging and remaining a Democratic generation
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QAnonKelly
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« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2019, 06:06:01 PM »

I think it’s due to generational turnover and women being increasingly more college educated than men. I’m a college educated millennial white woman but we’re the most educated subgroup of all time and are also ridiculously democratic. I think we’re distorting the number if that makes sense. Any group being 40 points anything is going to distort the number as a whole.
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« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2019, 06:23:17 PM »

It probably has to do with the age gap more than anything
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Cyrusman
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« Reply #4 on: March 14, 2019, 05:15:39 PM »

I think it’s due to generational turnover and women being increasingly more college educated than men. I’m a college educated millennial white woman but we’re the most educated subgroup of all time and are also ridiculously democratic. I think we’re distorting the number if that makes sense. Any group being 40 points anything is going to distort the number as a whole.

Why is that group ridiculously democratic in your opinion?
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QAnonKelly
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« Reply #5 on: March 14, 2019, 05:41:17 PM »

I think it’s due to generational turnover and women being increasingly more college educated than men. I’m a college educated millennial white woman but we’re the most educated subgroup of all time and are also ridiculously democratic. I think we’re distorting the number if that makes sense. Any group being 40 points anything is going to distort the number as a whole.

Why is that group ridiculously democratic in your opinion?

I think it’s because millennials are just democrats period because of when they came of age exacerbated by the fact we’re the first generation of women to be more educated than men and the first fully professional generation. Quite frankly we haven’t updated our social policy to fully integrate women into the work place and the Democrats are the people who want to do that. Stuff like paid family leave and universal childcare while the republicans still want to fight Roe V Wade. I think if they socially moderated and would embrace some family policy that would help working women, they could cut into the margins a bit.
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