NJ 2006 Scenario

[YRABNNRM]

Lets say that for one reason or another Corzine is forced to appoint Codey as Senator. Codey then announces he will run again in 2006 and the primary field clears for him. It's now Kean Jr. vs. Codey.

I have a feeling this race would be very close but in the end Codey might beat out Kean's name recognition.

[AuH2O]

Not if the Dems implode with a nasty primary.

[Keystone Phil]

Ugh. This would be worst case scenario for the GOP. Very close race with an ever so slight edge to Kean.

[© tweed]

I think Codey would win narrowly.  This is the best-case Democratic scenario; Kean would have to be favored against one of the Menendez/Andrews types.

[Keystone Phil]

I think Codey would win narrowly.  This is the best-case Democratic scenario; Kean would have to be favored against one of the Menendez/Andrews types.

Kean vs. Andrews would be very tough, too. That's another thing that the GOP would dread but it's unlikely to happen.

[TheresNoMoney]

Codey would win, and that is the scenario I see playing out.

[Moooooo]

AuH20 makes a good point.  If there is no primary Codey would win by a small yet solid margin.  He's popular, solid name id and from what I can gather people on both sides of the aisle hold a great deal of respect for him.

[Blank Slate]

Codey is not going to get it and even if he did, he certainly would not run for the full term.  Considering his apathy towards the position, I'd say he'd lose.  Then again with the brain-dead people living in this state, he'd probably win even if he died a month before the election.

Well that's okay, dead men have won U.S. Senate seats before.

Kean can join Ashcroft in the circle of men who lost to dead men, in that case.

[Moooooo]

From the Hill:

Dem leaders to press Corzine to pick Codey
By Peter Savodnik

Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean, Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid and other senior Democrats want Sen. Jon Corzine (D-N.J.) to appoint acting Gov. Richard Codey to fill Corzine’s post, a New Jersey Democratic official said yesterday.

The official, who asked to remain anonymous, said Codey anticipates phone calls in the coming days from Dean, Reid and possibly Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.J.), chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC).

A DNC spokesman, however, said that so far there have been no phone calls between Dean and Codey. A Democratic source in Washington added that the DNC does not have “a dog in this race.”

Reid spokesman Jim Manley said it was office policy not to comment on private conversations.

While Corzine is the only one who can choose his replacement in the Senate, Codey has said he is unlikely to take the job if Corzine offers it to him.

“His first inclination would be to say no because he really thinks it would be a strain on his family life,” said Codey spokeswoman Kelley Heck. “But he’s not saying he wouldn’t consider it.”

Still, Democrats are keenly aware that Codey has the highest name recognition of any of Corzine’s potential successors and that he remains well liked throughout the state.

A Wall Street Journal/Zogby poll conducted in late September showed Codey narrowly beating the Republicans’ likely Senate nominee, state Sen. Tom Kean Jr., 45 to 41 percent.

Two other Democrats who have been lobbying for the Senate seat, Reps. Rob Andrews and Robert Menendez, didn’t fare as well, with both losing to Kean in the poll.

Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster working for Rep. Frank Pallone (D-N.J.), also seeking the Senate seat, said voters do not want a “caretaker” senator.

Many Democrats fear that Codey would be unwilling to run next year for a full term and that, should he be tapped by Corzine, his presence in the Senate would only serve as a stopgap measure until next year’s election.

“A lot depends on whether Codey is going to … just be an interim senator,” Lake said. “Voters don’t want an interim senator.”

Menendez, meanwhile, has begun collecting endorsements, with Rep. Steve Rothman and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus throwing their support behind the seventh-term congressman. (Rothman is the only one of the seven Democrats in the New Jersey Democratic congressional delegation who says he’s not interested in the Corzine seat, but the congressman has indicated he’d like to run for Democratic Sen. Frank Lautenberg’s seat in 2008 should Lautenberg retire.)

Matt Miller, a spokesman for Menendez, said the congressman has amassed $4.1 million for the Senate campaign and already has assembled a campaign team. Menendez’s 13th District, Miller added, includes portions of Essex, Hudson, Middlesex and Union counties, which together make up 42 percent of the statewide Democratic primary and 30 percent of the general-election vote, Miller said.

Andrews would not rule out any scenarios. If Corzine appoints a caretaker senator, he said, he will “absolutely” run. If Corzine appoints someone besides Andrews who is not a caretaker, he is prepared for a Democratic primary. “I would not rule anything out,” Andrews said. “I’m making all the preparations to run that race.”

Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), said that the DCCC has no objections to Corzine’s selecting any of New Jersey’s House Democrats.

“I’m feeling very comfortable about each one of those seats,” Emanuel said.

Kean, the son of former New Jersey Gov. Tom Kean (R), said he is focused on his own race, not on Corzine’s Senate pick.

The Republican added that he would try to wage a more “inclusive” campaign than that of Doug Forrester, the Republican businessman who lost his gubernatorial bid Tuesday to Corzine.

“I think that individuals that had supported other candidates in the primary process didn’t really get a sense that the campaign had reached out to them … in an adequate fashion,” Kean said. “My hope is to start out this process and throughout the process be very aggressive about courting new ideas.”

Kean said he welcomes campaign visits by Sen. Elizabeth Dole, chairwoman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC); Sen. John McCain; former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani; and President Bush, even though the president lost New Jersey by seven points in 2004.

[MAS117]

Rep. Steve Rothman has endosed Bob Menendez for U.S. Senate, and is asking Jon Corzine to appoint the Hudson County Congressman when he leaves office in January.

[Moooooo]

Appoint Bradley to Senate seat


One of Gov.-elect Corzine's first official duties will be to decide who will fill the seat he vacates in the U.S. Senate, which expires in 2006. He can appoint a successor, appoint a caretaker to hold the seat or call for a special election. The best option would be a caretaker — someone who fills the seat but pledges not to run next November.

A caretaker could represent the citizens in Washington while the candidates to replace Corzine as senator battle it out in the primaries and general election. Ideally, the caretaker would be someone seasoned in Washington. Former Sen. Bill Bradley would be an excellent choice.

An appointed successor would almost immediately have to begin stumping for the primary, too far from the work in Washington. Corzine certainly knows the difficulties of trying to do the job there while vigorously campaigning here, and he had no real opposition in the primary. His replacement would be ineffective, trying to run a statewide campaign and learn the new job in Washington at the same time, effectively damaging both efforts. The state's residents deserve better.

If the unexpired term were longer than a year, we might support a special election. But an expensive statewide election for a single-year term — and only one seat — is not worth the taxpayers' money. And it would require another bout of campaigning. Frankly, we've had more than enough of that for awhile — a view widely shared by fed-up voters. And like an appointed successor, a person chosen in an election would be unable to get anything done for the state in Washington because of the demands of campaigning for a full term.

For Corzine, choosing a caretaker rather than a successor also might make more sense politically — assuming, of course, that a deal hasn't already been struck. If Corzine has not made up his mind yet, as he has repeatedly maintained, he runs the risk of alienating the pack of congressmen with senatorial aspirations who carried his water during the campaign by singling out one. Choosing from their ranks could make for some disgruntled fellow legislators.

Two years straight of a federal legislator devoting much of his or her time to a campaign is two years of New Jersey's needs not getting full-time attention in Washington. Let Bradley serve as a caretaker. He's capable and he's honest. For the good of the state, he just might agree to do it.

[© tweed]

That would be crazy, with Lautenberg and Bradley each holding each other's old seats.

[Moooooo]

How popular was Bradley?  If he deicided to run in the '06 primary and general election could he win?

[© tweed]

How popular was Bradley?  If he deicided to run in the '06 primary and general election could he win?

I think if he made it to the general, he'd win, but that said I doubt he wants the job.  He's pushing 70 now and he has little left to prove.