socaldem
skolodji
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,040
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« on: November 13, 2005, 01:23:38 AM » |
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I don't think Dems have too many good options here.
Codey pretty clearly does not want the seat.
Menendez and Andrews both have corruption problems and polling shows them trailing Kean.
I actually think Nia Gill looks like a fairly good choice. She seems like a reformist Obama-style African American candidate who would perform strongly in the suburbs and among women. That combined with a good African-American turnout could carry the day for her. The problem, though, is that she might have trouble retaining white ethnic working class support.
Any non-Andrews, non-Menendez selection will have huge problems with primary opposition. Rush Holt, for instance, would surely face a primary and he doesn't have the cash to fend off an onslought.
Gill would face a primary, but she would have the built-in support of the state's African-American primary voters. Add to that whatever suburban support she can get from Corzine and reformists and I think she would be in a pretty good position to fend off machine-backed opponents. Moreover, fighting against the machine might help her in the general, though Kean is a daunting opponent for any Democrat...
Menendez, it seems to me, would have trouble retaining support from both suburbanites (because of corruption) and working class non-Latinos.... Andrews would likely be uninspiring to minority voters. His selection, meanwhile, would piss off Menendez to high hell... so perhaps she'd also be a good general election candidate.
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