Be honest, what was your final prediction for every election you can remember
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  Be honest, what was your final prediction for every election you can remember
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Author Topic: Be honest, what was your final prediction for every election you can remember  (Read 1147 times)
morgankingsley
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« on: March 03, 2019, 08:12:28 PM »

You can make maps if you want. For me, I got the following

2008 - McCain wins Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina

2012 - Romney wins Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada and Wisconsin

2016 - trump wins Minnesota, new Hampshire, Maine, Colorado, and Nevada
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dw93
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« Reply #1 on: March 04, 2019, 12:42:07 AM »

2004: Didn't fully understand the electoral process yet, but sadly had a gut feeling Bush was going to eek out a win (though I'd never admit it to anyone at the time).

2008: I thought it be much closer, but it was clear that Obama was gonna win after September. I say closer because of Obama's lack of experience, and I'd hate to say it, but also because of his race. I remember being shocked that he won Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina, but not Missouri.

2012: I knew Indiana and North Carolina were going back to the GOP that year, and I favored Romney to win Florida (though I knew it'd be close either way). Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, and Virginia were pure toss ups to me. I knew Iowa, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire were staying Obama. In short, like 2004, this was an election that was to be decided by Ohio.

2016: Best case for Clinton being Obama's 2008 map minus Indiana. Worst case, Trump wins Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada while Clinton holds the rest of Obama's 2012 map.
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Xing
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« Reply #2 on: March 04, 2019, 01:12:33 AM »

2008 - I had McCain winning Indiana and NE-02
2012 - I got every state right
2016 - I had Clinton winning Florida, ME-02 (ouch), Michigan, NE-02, North Carolina, Ohio (ouch), Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin
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538Electoral
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« Reply #3 on: March 04, 2019, 09:26:28 AM »

I vividly remember predicting 319 Obama, 219 Romney. (Romney winning VA)

I predicted Trump would win 275-263 over Clinton. (I predicted Trump would win NV and CO, But would lose WI, MI and PA)
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Politician
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« Reply #4 on: March 04, 2019, 10:46:29 AM »

2016: Trump flips FL, WI, IA, OH, PA, and NH
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #5 on: March 04, 2019, 10:54:55 AM »

2012 and 2016 were the only ones where I was (anywhere near) politically savvy enough to even form a good guess:

2016
Hillary Clinton (D-NY): 308
Donald Trump (R-NY): 230



While I had come around to thinking Clinton was a particularly flawed candidate, I overestimated the voters' disdain for Trump.

2012
Mitt Romney (R-MA): 286
Barack Obama (D-IL): 252



I really thought Romney was going to win, and I bought into the idea that the electorate would revert back to 2004 "norms" somewhat.  You know, "center right nation" talking points.  I thought Romney would do better in New England than he did, I still thought VA was winnable with a good enough candidate for NOVA and I thought Ryan would put us over the top in Wisconsin.  What can I say?  I liked Romney.  We'd all be in a much better place if I were right.
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S019
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« Reply #6 on: March 04, 2019, 09:02:57 PM »



Clinton: 272
Trump: 266
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Nathan
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« Reply #7 on: March 04, 2019, 11:11:48 PM »
« Edited: March 05, 2019, 03:32:16 PM by God-Emperor Schultz »

2004: Kerry wins Ohio and the election
2008: The real map with North Carolina and Missouri flipped
2012: The real map
2016: Clinton wins with something between the 2004 map plus the Dem-trending Southwest/Mountain West states and Virginia and the 2012 map minus Iowa and plus North Carolina. I didn't expect a Clinton blowout but I definitely didn't expect her to lose.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
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« Reply #8 on: March 05, 2019, 12:58:55 AM »

I predicted in early 2009 or late 2008, that in 2012 Obama would win back MO, WV, KY, AR and other deep red Appalachian/Upper Southern states when they realized that Obama was not actually a secret terrorist Muslim Kenyan. I do remember looking at polls in WV, AR,KY and LA in 2013 and Hillary was up in a few of them or surprisingly competitive, I did almost beleive for a while that Hillary could bring back the 1990's Bill Clinton map.
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Canis
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« Reply #9 on: March 05, 2019, 01:12:31 AM »


This was mine for 2016
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Chunk Yogurt for President!
CELTICEMPIRE
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« Reply #10 on: March 05, 2019, 07:02:35 AM »

2008: Obama victory (wasn't really invested into this one and didn't know which states voted for which party beyond Texas and California).

2012: I got everything right except Romney winning Florida.

2016: I predicted Hillary winning Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

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Kleine Scheiße
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« Reply #11 on: March 05, 2019, 09:02:10 AM »

2000: remember wanting Gore to win, can't remember a hard prediction

2004: thought Kerry would win in a landslide

2008: confident that Obama would win but thought it'd be closer

2012: was pretty much right

2016: right about Trump winning, got a couple states wrong
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #12 on: March 18, 2019, 01:18:25 PM »
« Edited: March 18, 2019, 01:25:08 PM by Anarcho-Statism »

2004: Bush wins because my parents think he will. Dad's place of work gave me the distinct impression that this was wartime and that guy who looked like Frankenstein was way too soft on the enemy. Lived in a Bush state.

2008: Obama wins because everyone seems to be excited for "our first black president" months before the election. Lived in an Obama state.

2012: Obama wins a close one. Obama wins the Rust Belt because the working class seems to support him, while Romney wins back the south, parts of the west, and maybe that one New England state that the news people say is libertarian (what was it called?). Lived in an Obama state.

2016: Clinton wins. Add Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida to her map. Trump flips Virginia because that's obviously a Republican state, right? Maybe flip some of the west, too, because he's so liberal. He'll definitely win Nevada. Lived in a Trump state.

I only get educated on electoral history after that.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #13 on: March 18, 2019, 01:42:13 PM »

2004: Thought Kerry would win. Couldn't imagine the country voting for Bush after no WMDs (still don't understand to be honest).

2008: Thought Obama would win. The state polls showed an insurmountable lead.

2012: Thought Obama would win. Again, Obama was too far ahead in the EC for Romney to pull it off.

2016: Brain said Hillary because she was ahead in the necessary states to win (and I was one of the ones who didn't fall for the "Trump is ahead in NV" thing. Heart said Trump because the more charismatic candidate always wins the election, also the candidate that has more supporters voting "for" them instead of "against" their opponent always wins.
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #14 on: March 18, 2019, 03:00:24 PM »

and I was one of the ones who didn't fall for the "Trump is ahead in NV" thing.

Easy there, I didn't fall for anything. As a former Nevadan, my gut feeling was that he was a better fit for the state. I still think he is- for the '00s version I remember, before the last surge of illegals and the Democrats' guarantee of their votes. Tongue
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #15 on: March 18, 2019, 03:04:45 PM »
« Edited: March 18, 2019, 03:09:55 PM by Never Beto »

and I was one of the ones who didn't fall for the "Trump is ahead in NV" thing.

Easy there, I didn't fall for anything. As a former Nevadan, my gut feeling was that he was a better fit for the state. I still think he is- for the '00s version I remember, before the last surge of illegals and the Democrats' guarantee of their votes. Tongue

Conservatives are brain dead: Exhibit A.

I have some news for you guys: Not every brown, Spanish speaking person you see is "illegal".
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #16 on: March 18, 2019, 03:31:52 PM »

and I was one of the ones who didn't fall for the "Trump is ahead in NV" thing.

Easy there, I didn't fall for anything. As a former Nevadan, my gut feeling was that he was a better fit for the state. I still think he is- for the '00s version I remember, before the last surge of illegals and the Democrats' guarantee of their votes. Tongue

Conservatives are brain dead: Exhibit A.

I have some news for you guys: Not every brown, Spanish speaking person you see is "illegal".

I'm not a conservative and I'm hispanic.
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Dr. MB
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« Reply #17 on: March 18, 2019, 05:48:15 PM »

I didn't make any predictions before 2016, so...

2016: I thought Hillary would win, but I also made a bet that Trump would win. I also thought the Senate would go D, don't think I made a house prediction though.

2018: House would go D, senate would too (51-49), I was pretty accurate with the governorships but slightly too Dem-confident.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #18 on: May 14, 2019, 06:40:42 PM »

1984: Reagan beats Mondale 56/43, with Mondale winning MD-MA-MN-RI-DC
1988: about as IRL
1992: Bush makes it a bit closer, holding GA, NH, NV
1996: Dole makes it a bit closer, holding AZ
2000: Bush wins the PV and IA, NM, OR, WI as well as Macomb, MI and Oakland, MI
2004: about as IRL
2008: McCain makes it a bit closer, holding IN, NE-2, NC
2012: Romney makes it a bit closer, winning FL
2016: Clinton wins MI-PA-WI and the election
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #19 on: May 14, 2019, 11:23:56 PM »

2008: Obama
2012: Obama
2016: Hillary
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One Term Floridian
swamiG
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« Reply #20 on: May 15, 2019, 12:18:51 AM »
« Edited: May 15, 2019, 01:55:19 AM by swamiG »



2004 - I was young, hopeful and stupid.



2008 - Got this one pretty close.



2012 - Particularly proud of this one.



2016 - Almost as bad as my 2004 map tbh.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #21 on: May 15, 2019, 02:40:58 AM »



2004 - I was young, hopeful and stupid.

To be totally fair, I think no map you will make will ever be this far away from the truth
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One Term Floridian
swamiG
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« Reply #22 on: May 15, 2019, 01:11:56 PM »



2004 - I was young, hopeful and stupid.

To be totally fair, I think no map you will make will ever be this far away from the truth

That was my best guess as a 6th grader in a Broward County, FL middle school lol
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