Be honest, what was your final prediction for every election you can remember

[RINO Tom]

2012 and 2016 were the only ones where I was (anywhere near) politically savvy enough to even form a good guess:

2016
Hillary Clinton (D-NY): 308
Donald Trump (R-NY): 230

While I had come around to thinking Clinton was a particularly flawed candidate, I overestimated the voters' disdain for Trump.

2012
Mitt Romney (R-MA): 286
Barack Obama (D-IL): 252

I really thought Romney was going to win, and I bought into the idea that the electorate would revert back to 2004 "norms" somewhat.  You know, "center right nation" talking points.  I thought Romney would do better in New England than he did, I still thought VA was winnable with a good enough candidate for NOVA and I thought Ryan would put us over the top in Wisconsin.  What can I say?  I liked Romney.  We'd all be in a much better place if I were right.