Political future of former GA House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D-Atlanta)

[LoneStarDem]

What's her political future in the Peach State ?

A.) Atlanta, GA Mayor in 2025 when KLB is term limited.

B.) GA-05 US House when Lewis retires or passes away.

C.) Rematch against Kemp in 2022 for the GA Governor's Mansion, which will be more racially polarized & divisive as 2018 was.

D.) Lobbyist.

E.) Too Soon to Tell

[PAK Man]

I have a feeling she'll pass on the senate race this year. I can see her going for a rematch with Kemp, but I think that'd be a bad idea.

[MassBlueDog]

I have a feeling she'll pass on the senate race this year. I can see her going for a rematch with Kemp, but I think that'd be a bad idea.

and she shouldn't.  Perdue is a lot worse of a candidate than Kemp.

[Frodo]

I really want her to do a rematch against Gov. Kemp in 2022.  This time, with demographics shifting even more her way, she might win this time.  And maybe, Democrats could capture the George House in either 2020 or 2022 (if Trump is re-elected). 

[SnowLabrador]

I hope she runs for Senate, but I think she'll go for a rematch with Kemp in '22.

[Pollster]

Rematch against Kemp. Tomlinson can win against Perdue, and Abrams is probably the only candidate who could beat Kemp in a potential Dem President midterm (a Trump midterm definitely).

[S019]

She will run for Senate in 2020 and lose

She will run for either Senate or Governor in 2022(she wins Gov, loses Senate)

If she loses in 2022, she becomes a lobbyist

[Lognog]

I think if Trump loses 2022 will be an ugly year for dems and going at Kemp in a D+9 environment isn't going to go well in a red wave year. That being said, if she does run and Trump wins I think she could certainly defeat Kemp

[Progressive Pessimist]

She will, and should, probably run against Perdue in 2020.

[Skye]

There's this:

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1102912907854180352

[Pollster]

Running for the Senate in 2020 seems like it is a win-win option for her. She probably wins if the Democrat wins the Presidency (securing her a spot in the Senate), and probably loses if Trump is re-elected (setting her up for a very winnable rematch with Kemp in a Trump midterm).

[SnowLabrador]

My guess is Governor. She has always wanted to be Governor very badly.

[Scottholes 2.0]

I really want her to do a rematch against Gov. Kemp in 2022.  This time, with demographics shifting even more her way, she might win this time.  And maybe, Democrats could capture the George House in either 2020 or 2022 (if Trump is re-elected). 

Yeah, if Kemp doesn't steal the election again.

[Del Tachi]

I have a feeling she'll pass on the senate race this year. I can see her going for a rematch with Kemp, but I think that'd be a bad idea.

and she shouldn't.  Perdue is a lot worse of a candidate than Kemp.

lolno.  Perdue's approvals in GA are higher than Kemp's or Trump's, and he won't have to tack right to win a GOP primary in 2020 (thus alienating ATL suburbanites).  Perdue is good as gold.  He'd beat Stacey something like 52-46.


Anyway, it looks like Abrams is gunning to run for Senate in 2020 (she'll lose) and then challenge Kemp in a rematch in 2022 (she'll lose).  By that time Georgia Dems won't be able to stand her, but national Democrats might prop her up in GA-05 when Lewis retires.

Here's an interesting piece of local knowledge:  Keisha Lance Bottoms and Stacey Abrams do not get along, at all.  It's no secret that KLB was supportive of Stacey Evans during the Democratic Primary, and she never really cranked out her ATL machine for Abrams in the general election.  For that reason, Stacey Abrams becoming mayor of Atlanta would require her probably mobilizing anti-Bottoms/Reed Democrats, becoming somewhat more of a "Justice Dem" in the mold of Kwame Abernathy or Kwanzaa Hall, or somehow mobilizing the Buckhead vote?  Seems very unlikely.

[Comrade Funk]

I have a feeling she'll pass on the senate race this year. I can see her going for a rematch with Kemp, but I think that'd be a bad idea.

and she shouldn't.  Perdue is a lot worse of a candidate than Kemp.

lolno.  Perdue's approvals in GA are higher than Kemp's or Trump's, and he won't have to tack right to win a GOP primary in 2020 (thus alienating ATL suburbanites).  Perdue is good as gold.  He'd beat Stacey something like 52-46.


Anyway, it looks like Abrams is gunning to run for Senate in 2020 (she'll lose) and then challenge Kemp in a rematch in 2022 (she'll lose).  By that time Georgia Dems won't be able to stand her, but national Democrats might prop her up in GA-05 when Lewis retires.

What's the lottery numbers tonight oh wise one? If you can predict elections three and half years in advance, you can surely predict tonight's lottery!

[ON Progressive]

Hopefully, she runs for Senate. LOL @ the people who think Perdue would gain a ton of ticket splitters just because he's a "Generic R with Suburban Appeal".

I doubt Gwinnett County voters who went Clinton/Abrams/Amico/Bailey/Barrow are going to vote Perdue by any significant amount.

[Comrade Funk]

I have a feeling she'll pass on the senate race this year. I can see her going for a rematch with Kemp, but I think that'd be a bad idea.

and she shouldn't.  Perdue is a lot worse of a candidate than Kemp.

lolno.  Perdue's approvals in GA are higher than Kemp's or Trump's, and he won't have to tack right to win a GOP primary in 2020 (thus alienating ATL suburbanites).  Perdue is good as gold.  He'd beat Stacey something like 52-46.


Anyway, it looks like Abrams is gunning to run for Senate in 2020 (she'll lose) and then challenge Kemp in a rematch in 2022 (she'll lose).  By that time Georgia Dems won't be able to stand her, but national Democrats might prop her up in GA-05 when Lewis retires.

Here's an interesting piece of local knowledge:  Keisha Lance Bottoms and Stacey Abrams do not get along, at all.  It's no secret that KLB was supportive of Stacey Evans during the Democratic Primary, and she never really cranked out her ATL machine for Abrams in the general election.  For that reason, Stacey Abrams becoming mayor of Atlanta would require her probably mobilizing anti-Bottoms/Reed Democrats, becoming somewhat more of a "Justice Dem" in the mold of Kwame Abernathy or Kwanzaa Hall, or somehow mobilizing the Buckhead vote?  Seems very unlikely.

How is Kemp in any way more appealing to the suburbs than Kemp or Trump? This is the clown that advocated reducing legal immigration.

And there was next to no ticket splitting in any of the suburbs in 2018 in the statewide races. All the Republicans got BTFO in Cobb and Gwinnett, even incumbent office holders. I’m thoroughly unconvinced that the “moderate Republican Abrams voters” (which I doubt exist in substantial numbers) are dying to turn around and vote for Perdue when nearly all her 2018 voters voted Dem downballot too.

Um lol, Suburbanites have a history of being the most anti-illegal immigration group out there (Prop 187 was most popular in the Suburbs I believe not in Rural Areas).

Anyway reason they turned against GOP as more to do with Trump than any policy position

Appalachian Democrats against Gore! Suburban Republicans against Trump!

Quit denying the inevitable.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I have a feeling she'll pass on the senate race this year. I can see her going for a rematch with Kemp, but I think that'd be a bad idea.

and she shouldn't.  Perdue is a lot worse of a candidate than Kemp.

lolno.  Perdue's approvals in GA are higher than Kemp's or Trump's, and he won't have to tack right to win a GOP primary in 2020 (thus alienating ATL suburbanites).  Perdue is good as gold.  He'd beat Stacey something like 52-46.


Anyway, it looks like Abrams is gunning to run for Senate in 2020 (she'll lose) and then challenge Kemp in a rematch in 2022 (she'll lose).  By that time Georgia Dems won't be able to stand her, but national Democrats might prop her up in GA-05 when Lewis retires.

Here's an interesting piece of local knowledge:  Keisha Lance Bottoms and Stacey Abrams do not get along, at all.  It's no secret that KLB was supportive of Stacey Evans during the Democratic Primary, and she never really cranked out her ATL machine for Abrams in the general election.  For that reason, Stacey Abrams becoming mayor of Atlanta would require her probably mobilizing anti-Bottoms/Reed Democrats, becoming somewhat more of a "Justice Dem" in the mold of Kwame Abernathy or Kwanzaa Hall, or somehow mobilizing the Buckhead vote?  Seems very unlikely.

How is Kemp in any way more appealing to the suburbs than Kemp or Trump? This is the clown that advocated reducing legal immigration.

And there was next to no ticket splitting in any of the suburbs in 2018 in the statewide races. All the Republicans got BTFO in Cobb and Gwinnett, even incumbent office holders. I’m thoroughly unconvinced that the “moderate Republican Abrams voters” (which I doubt exist in substantial numbers) are dying to turn around and vote for Perdue when nearly all her 2018 voters voted Dem downballot too.

Um lol, Suburbanites have a history of being the most anti-illegal immigration group out there (Prop 187 was most popular in the Suburbs I believe not in Rural Areas).

Anyway reason they turned against GOP as more to do with Trump than any policy position

Appalachian Democrats against Gore! Suburban Republicans against Trump!

Quit denying the inevitable.

If the GOP loses the Suburbs like the Dems lose Appalachia they are done. The Suburbs make up more than 50% of the voting population I believe

[Comrade Funk]

I have a feeling she'll pass on the senate race this year. I can see her going for a rematch with Kemp, but I think that'd be a bad idea.

and she shouldn't.  Perdue is a lot worse of a candidate than Kemp.

lolno.  Perdue's approvals in GA are higher than Kemp's or Trump's, and he won't have to tack right to win a GOP primary in 2020 (thus alienating ATL suburbanites).  Perdue is good as gold.  He'd beat Stacey something like 52-46.


Anyway, it looks like Abrams is gunning to run for Senate in 2020 (she'll lose) and then challenge Kemp in a rematch in 2022 (she'll lose).  By that time Georgia Dems won't be able to stand her, but national Democrats might prop her up in GA-05 when Lewis retires.

Here's an interesting piece of local knowledge:  Keisha Lance Bottoms and Stacey Abrams do not get along, at all.  It's no secret that KLB was supportive of Stacey Evans during the Democratic Primary, and she never really cranked out her ATL machine for Abrams in the general election.  For that reason, Stacey Abrams becoming mayor of Atlanta would require her probably mobilizing anti-Bottoms/Reed Democrats, becoming somewhat more of a "Justice Dem" in the mold of Kwame Abernathy or Kwanzaa Hall, or somehow mobilizing the Buckhead vote?  Seems very unlikely.

How is Kemp in any way more appealing to the suburbs than Kemp or Trump? This is the clown that advocated reducing legal immigration.

And there was next to no ticket splitting in any of the suburbs in 2018 in the statewide races. All the Republicans got BTFO in Cobb and Gwinnett, even incumbent office holders. I’m thoroughly unconvinced that the “moderate Republican Abrams voters” (which I doubt exist in substantial numbers) are dying to turn around and vote for Perdue when nearly all her 2018 voters voted Dem downballot too.

Um lol, Suburbanites have a history of being the most anti-illegal immigration group out there (Prop 187 was most popular in the Suburbs I believe not in Rural Areas).

Anyway reason they turned against GOP as more to do with Trump than any policy position

Appalachian Democrats against Gore! Suburban Republicans against Trump!

Quit denying the inevitable.

If the GOP loses the Suburbs like the Dems lose Appalachia they are done. The Suburbs make up more than 50% of the voting population I believe

It won't be that bad, but don't expect Gwinnett County to be lean R or even tossup for the foreseeable future.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I have a feeling she'll pass on the senate race this year. I can see her going for a rematch with Kemp, but I think that'd be a bad idea.

and she shouldn't.  Perdue is a lot worse of a candidate than Kemp.

lolno.  Perdue's approvals in GA are higher than Kemp's or Trump's, and he won't have to tack right to win a GOP primary in 2020 (thus alienating ATL suburbanites).  Perdue is good as gold.  He'd beat Stacey something like 52-46.


Anyway, it looks like Abrams is gunning to run for Senate in 2020 (she'll lose) and then challenge Kemp in a rematch in 2022 (she'll lose).  By that time Georgia Dems won't be able to stand her, but national Democrats might prop her up in GA-05 when Lewis retires.

Here's an interesting piece of local knowledge:  Keisha Lance Bottoms and Stacey Abrams do not get along, at all.  It's no secret that KLB was supportive of Stacey Evans during the Democratic Primary, and she never really cranked out her ATL machine for Abrams in the general election.  For that reason, Stacey Abrams becoming mayor of Atlanta would require her probably mobilizing anti-Bottoms/Reed Democrats, becoming somewhat more of a "Justice Dem" in the mold of Kwame Abernathy or Kwanzaa Hall, or somehow mobilizing the Buckhead vote?  Seems very unlikely.

How is Kemp in any way more appealing to the suburbs than Kemp or Trump? This is the clown that advocated reducing legal immigration.

And there was next to no ticket splitting in any of the suburbs in 2018 in the statewide races. All the Republicans got BTFO in Cobb and Gwinnett, even incumbent office holders. I’m thoroughly unconvinced that the “moderate Republican Abrams voters” (which I doubt exist in substantial numbers) are dying to turn around and vote for Perdue when nearly all her 2018 voters voted Dem downballot too.

Um lol, Suburbanites have a history of being the most anti-illegal immigration group out there (Prop 187 was most popular in the Suburbs I believe not in Rural Areas).

Anyway reason they turned against GOP as more to do with Trump than any policy position

Notice I said “legal” you broken computer

Missed than yes Purdue will not be popular at all in the suburbs.

Wasnt that Tom Cotton though

[OSR stands with Israel]

I have a feeling she'll pass on the senate race this year. I can see her going for a rematch with Kemp, but I think that'd be a bad idea.

and she shouldn't.  Perdue is a lot worse of a candidate than Kemp.

lolno.  Perdue's approvals in GA are higher than Kemp's or Trump's, and he won't have to tack right to win a GOP primary in 2020 (thus alienating ATL suburbanites).  Perdue is good as gold.  He'd beat Stacey something like 52-46.


Anyway, it looks like Abrams is gunning to run for Senate in 2020 (she'll lose) and then challenge Kemp in a rematch in 2022 (she'll lose).  By that time Georgia Dems won't be able to stand her, but national Democrats might prop her up in GA-05 when Lewis retires.

Here's an interesting piece of local knowledge:  Keisha Lance Bottoms and Stacey Abrams do not get along, at all.  It's no secret that KLB was supportive of Stacey Evans during the Democratic Primary, and she never really cranked out her ATL machine for Abrams in the general election.  For that reason, Stacey Abrams becoming mayor of Atlanta would require her probably mobilizing anti-Bottoms/Reed Democrats, becoming somewhat more of a "Justice Dem" in the mold of Kwame Abernathy or Kwanzaa Hall, or somehow mobilizing the Buckhead vote?  Seems very unlikely.

How is Kemp in any way more appealing to the suburbs than Kemp or Trump? This is the clown that advocated reducing legal immigration.

And there was next to no ticket splitting in any of the suburbs in 2018 in the statewide races. All the Republicans got BTFO in Cobb and Gwinnett, even incumbent office holders. I’m thoroughly unconvinced that the “moderate Republican Abrams voters” (which I doubt exist in substantial numbers) are dying to turn around and vote for Perdue when nearly all her 2018 voters voted Dem downballot too.

Um lol, Suburbanites have a history of being the most anti-illegal immigration group out there (Prop 187 was most popular in the Suburbs I believe not in Rural Areas).

Anyway reason they turned against GOP as more to do with Trump than any policy position

Appalachian Democrats against Gore! Suburban Republicans against Trump!

Quit denying the inevitable.

If the GOP loses the Suburbs like the Dems lose Appalachia they are done. The Suburbs make up more than 50% of the voting population I believe

It won't be that bad, but don't expect Gwinnett County to be lean R or even tossup for the foreseeable future.

Georgia is gone then

[Del Tachi]

I have a feeling she'll pass on the senate race this year. I can see her going for a rematch with Kemp, but I think that'd be a bad idea.

and she shouldn't.  Perdue is a lot worse of a candidate than Kemp.

lolno.  Perdue's approvals in GA are higher than Kemp's or Trump's, and he won't have to tack right to win a GOP primary in 2020 (thus alienating ATL suburbanites).  Perdue is good as gold.  He'd beat Stacey something like 52-46.


Anyway, it looks like Abrams is gunning to run for Senate in 2020 (she'll lose) and then challenge Kemp in a rematch in 2022 (she'll lose).  By that time Georgia Dems won't be able to stand her, but national Democrats might prop her up in GA-05 when Lewis retires.

Here's an interesting piece of local knowledge:  Keisha Lance Bottoms and Stacey Abrams do not get along, at all.  It's no secret that KLB was supportive of Stacey Evans during the Democratic Primary, and she never really cranked out her ATL machine for Abrams in the general election.  For that reason, Stacey Abrams becoming mayor of Atlanta would require her probably mobilizing anti-Bottoms/Reed Democrats, becoming somewhat more of a "Justice Dem" in the mold of Kwame Abernathy or Kwanzaa Hall, or somehow mobilizing the Buckhead vote?  Seems very unlikely.

How is Kemp in any way more appealing to the suburbs than Kemp or Trump? This is the clown that advocated reducing legal immigration.

And there was next to no ticket splitting in any of the suburbs in 2018 in the statewide races. All the Republicans got BTFO in Cobb and Gwinnett, even incumbent office holders. I’m thoroughly unconvinced that the “moderate Republican Abrams voters” (which I doubt exist in substantial numbers) are dying to turn around and vote for Perdue when nearly all her 2018 voters voted Dem downballot too.

It has more to do with the non-negligible number of well-off, suburban White voters in Buckhead, Druid Hills, Vinings, Johns Creek and other “ITP” moderate Republicans who will vote for Perdue despite not turning out/voting Dem downballot in 2016/18.  Trump/Kemp were a specific anathema to these types of voters, but Perdue has higher approvals among this group.  It’s analagous to how Mark Kirk ran ahead of Trump in the Collar counties.  I don’t think it’s a matter of Perdue being able to somehow “flip” the new Brown and Black voters in the increasingly diverse OTP suburbs, it’s about him having more personal appeal/a connection/better turnout operation in suburban Atlanta to begin with. 

I agree that Gwinnett and Cobb counties will go Dem in 2020, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t tens of thousands of Republican votes Trump and Kemp left on the table.   

EDIT:  Case in point, Perdue has a 46 percent approval rating (including 40 percent among independents) compared to 37 percent for Kemp and Trump. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/ajc-poll-shows-deeply-divided-georgia-and-tough-numbers-for-kemp/8dqIoXp1j5o0kujop427PN/amp.html

[Adam Griffin]

It has more to do with the non-negligible number of well-off, suburban White voters in Buckhead, Druid Hills, Vinings, Johns Creek and other “ITP” moderate Republicans who will vote for Perdue despite not turning out/voting Dem downballot in 2016/18.  Trump/Kemp were a specific anathema to these types of voters, but Perdue has higher approvals among this group.  It’s analagous to how Mark Kirk ran ahead of Trump in the Collar counties.  I don’t think it’s a matter of Perdue being able to somehow “flip” the new Brown and Black voters in the increasingly diverse OTP suburbs, it’s about him having more personal appeal/a connection/better turnout operation in suburban Atlanta to begin with.

Yes. An Abrams 2020 Senate run in my view is a suicide gambit - and arguably a bad deal for Georgia Democrats, considering if she loses, she'd almost certainly run for Gov again in 2022 anyway. I made the joke awhile back that this is Georgia Democrats' future with Abrams until/unless she wins something - and given specific dynamics of Georgia's Democratic electorate, she could probably continue to sew up the nomination for whatever in perpetuity while losing an ever-increasing number of non-diehard Democratic voters in the GE due to her persistence, thereby offsetting any demographic gains. Since I know she is basically going to run for things until she wins something, I'd much rather a Kemp 2022 rematch without the Senate bid.

Anyway, Abrams won hordes of people who voted for Nathan Deal and David Perdue in 2010 and 2014, who had positive opinions of Nathan Deal upon leaving office, and who still have positive approvals of David Perdue today. Specifically, Perdue had a +18 approval rating in October, and in January:

Kemp: 37/47 (-10)
Abrams: 52/40 (+12)
Perdue: 45/31 (+14)

Kemp being underwater by 12 while Perdue is up by 14 tells the story (and the "undecideds" here will more or less break how the state does, if history is any indicator; basically split down the middle). Kemp was uniquely unpopular in GA, and unpopular among a group of voters that not all Republicans have to worry about: another way of putting it is that there were twice as many or more Trump-Abrams voters statewide as Clinton-Kemp voters.

It's a suicide run. It's easy to win specific GOP voters when their choice is between a qualified candidate and a controversial, unpopular clown. When you make them choose between the party of their traditional allegiance - represented by a candidate they approve of - and somebody else from a different party, most are going to choose the former. Considering GA-2018 basically looked like what we'd expect the 2020 electorate to resemble from a pre-2018 perspective (and basically everybody who voted in 2016 in GA also voted in 2018), there's not going to be enough demographic overhaul to make up for these inevitable Abrams-Perdue voters (not to mention probably still some more rural fall-off).

[Rookie Yinzer]

Here's an interesting piece of local knowledge:  Keisha Lance Bottoms and Stacey Abrams do not get along, at all.  It's no secret that KLB was supportive of Stacey Evans during the Democratic Primary, and she never really cranked out her ATL machine for Abrams in the general election.  For that reason, Stacey Abrams becoming mayor of Atlanta would require her probably mobilizing anti-Bottoms/Reed Democrats, becoming somewhat more of a "Justice Dem" in the mold of Kwame Abernathy or Kwanzaa Hall, or somehow mobilizing the Buckhead vote?  Seems very unlikely.

LOL. Abrams would win an election for Mayor handily. Voters don't care or even know about these silly factional disputes at City Hall.

Also LOL at the notion that Abrams who received the most votes for any Georgia Democrat would need the help of someone who has only had to turn out 46,000 votes in an off year runoff.

[Roll Roons]

Ah yes, David Perdue is a moderate and reasonable Republican who will get plenty of ticket splitters in the metro.

But he still SEEMS like a reasonable establishment guy to Georgia voters, and that's what matters. He probably wouldn't make an ad where he points a gun at a teenager or calls himself a "politically incorrect conservative".