DENMARK - 5 June 2019 election
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mgop
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« on: March 05, 2019, 01:03:36 PM »
« edited: May 30, 2019, 03:06:04 PM by Blind Jaunting »

I think it's time for this topic. Elections will be held on 17 June. Looks like left wing coalition will win. Maybe forum Danes knows more.
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ingemann
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« Reply #1 on: March 06, 2019, 05:03:20 PM »

I think it's time for this topic. Elections will be held on 17 June. Looks like left wing coalition will win. Maybe forum Danes knows more.

My thoughts on the issue, and be aware that I'm a partisan hack.

I think left-wing victory is pretty much given. Lars Løkke Rasmussen, while a competent politician with very low morales, feels like he's really really tired, and he's pretty much the only one on the right fighting for a victory.

Unless he comes back into his fighting spirit, we may very see the right being left as smoking ruins, and everything indicates that Venstre will break out into a civil war the moment LLR is gone.

Of course the Left have it own conflicts, but the Social Democratic and SSP relative friendly relationship with DPP and the interest in all three parties in keeping the Social Liberals political irrelevant, will likely result in a relative stable Social Democratic one party government. 
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rob in cal
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« Reply #2 on: March 06, 2019, 05:59:40 PM »

  I'm interested in the Social Democrats chances and their relations to the DPP. Do they basically agree with the DPP on the immigration issue, and would the DPP give support to a minority Social Democrat government?
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ingemann
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« Reply #3 on: March 06, 2019, 06:32:17 PM »

  I'm interested in the Social Democrats chances and their relations to the DPP. Do they basically agree with the DPP on the immigration issue, and would the DPP give support to a minority Social Democrat government?

The main reason for the potential cooperation is a historical good personal relationship between the leadership in the two parties. But also that DPP voters are very tired of Venstre. SD and DPP doesn’t basically agree, but SD are only slightly to the left of Venstre on immigration, and much more in line with how DPP sell themselves on economic issue. Beside that DPP have a interest in keeping the Social Liberals away from influence, and SD are incredible tired of the Social Liberals right now, think it will be healthy to sideline them right now.
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Mazda
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« Reply #4 on: March 06, 2019, 07:39:17 PM »

  I'm interested in the Social Democrats chances and their relations to the DPP. Do they basically agree with the DPP on the immigration issue, and would the DPP give support to a minority Social Democrat government?

The main reason for the potential cooperation is a historical good personal relationship between the leadership in the two parties. But also that DPP voters are very tired of Venstre. SD and DPP doesn’t basically agree, but SD are only slightly to the left of Venstre on immigration, and much more in line with how DPP sell themselves on economic issue. Beside that DPP have a interest in keeping the Social Liberals away from influence, and SD are incredible tired of the Social Liberals right now, think it will be healthy to sideline them right now.
What would you say was behind this antipathy between SD and Radikale Venstre?
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ingemann
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« Reply #5 on: March 06, 2019, 07:47:31 PM »

 I'm interested in the Social Democrats chances and their relations to the DPP. Do they basically agree with the DPP on the immigration issue, and would the DPP give support to a minority Social Democrat government?

The main reason for the potential cooperation is a historical good personal relationship between the leadership in the two parties. But also that DPP voters are very tired of Venstre. SD and DPP doesn’t basically agree, but SD are only slightly to the left of Venstre on immigration, and much more in line with how DPP sell themselves on economic issue. Beside that DPP have a interest in keeping the Social Liberals away from influence, and SD are incredible tired of the Social Liberals right now, think it will be healthy to sideline them right now.
What would you say was behind this antipathy between SD and Radikale Venstre?

The latter are a bunch of smug moralizing selfserving a-holes. Of course they have always been that way, but under the last government the took it a step too far.
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Harlow
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« Reply #6 on: March 06, 2019, 10:38:21 PM »

Funny that the name of the highest-polling Danish right party at the moment is literally Danish for "Left".
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Kosmos
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« Reply #7 on: March 07, 2019, 01:13:02 AM »

Funny that the name of the highest-polling Danish right party at the moment is literally Danish for "Left".

It sounds a bit funny today yes. But the name stems from a time in which there was only conservatives (right) and liberals (left).
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lilTommy
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« Reply #8 on: March 07, 2019, 09:38:43 AM »

Most recent Poll from Feb25th:

A (Social Dems) - 28.2%   2015 - 26.3% (+1.9)   
O (DPP) - 15.2%   2015 - 21.1% (-5.9)
V (Liberals) - 17.8    2015 - 19.5% (-1.7)   
Ø (Red-Green) - 9.7%    2015 - 7.8% (+1.9)
I (Liberal Alliance) - 4.5%    2015 - 7.5% (-3)
Å (Alternative, "greens") - 3.5%    2015 - 4.8% (-1.3)   
B (Social Liberal) - 6.1%    2015 - 4.6% (+1.5)
F (SPP) - 5.9%   2015 - 4.2% (+1.7)
C (Conservative) - 3.8%    2015 - 3.4% (+0.4)
K (Christian Democrats) - 0.7%    2015 - 0.8% (-0.1)
D (New Right) - 2.8%    2015 - NEW
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mgop
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« Reply #9 on: March 07, 2019, 10:01:35 AM »

I think it's time for this topic. Elections will be held on 17 June. Looks like left wing coalition will win. Maybe forum Danes knows more.

My thoughts on the issue, and be aware that I'm a partisan hack.

I think left-wing victory is pretty much given. Lars Løkke Rasmussen, while a competent politician with very low morales, feels like he's really really tired, and he's pretty much the only one on the right fighting for a victory.

Unless he comes back into his fighting spirit, we may very see the right being left as smoking ruins, and everything indicates that Venstre will break out into a civil war the moment LLR is gone.

Of course the Left have it own conflicts, but the Social Democratic and SSP relative friendly relationship with DPP and the interest in all three parties in keeping the Social Liberals political irrelevant, will likely result in a relative stable Social Democratic one party government. 

That's good. There are too many right wing governments in Europe.
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« Reply #10 on: March 07, 2019, 12:16:02 PM »

1) I'm guessing there is no real desire for the SPP to rejoin a coalition with S then after the last time round?

2) is Alternative going to be a guaranteed prop for the left, or will they demand something wacky? same for Ø.

3) I know D's current leader has doubled down on populism in regards to immigration/cultural issues, but where does she stand economically in the party?
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ingemann
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« Reply #11 on: March 07, 2019, 02:16:05 PM »

1) I'm guessing there is no real desire for the SPP to rejoin a coalition with S then after the last time round?

2) is Alternative going to be a guaranteed prop for the left, or will they demand something wacky? same for Ø.

3) I know D's current leader has doubled down on populism in regards to immigration/cultural issues, but where does she stand economically in the party?

1) Any reasonable person would believe so, but no they’re hungry for a new round in government. Which show us a important fact about SPP that they prefer power to popularity, which have always been a plus in my book.

2) Alternative will do something wacky, if LLR becomes PM again, it will be because of them.

3) I dislike callling SDs view on immigration for populist, because Alternative and the Social Liberals pro-immigration policy are every bit as much populism as DPP, it’s just populism for a different voter segment. I would say that SD, SPP, Venstre, Conservative and to lesser extent Unity List have immigration policies which are ideological coherent or pragmatic in nature. While the other parties either lack one (LA) or have a immigration policy building on emotions.

As for Mette Frederiksen, she’s to the left economical in SD. But that’s not completely meaningful, as it’s not a major internal battlefield in SD. In fact what make her unique in the party is the fact, that while she forced a consensus on the party, she have done so in dialogue with the MPs, so there’s relative little dissent among the MPs and pretty much next to none on economics.
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Diouf
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« Reply #12 on: March 07, 2019, 03:09:34 PM »

The Alternative likes to talk about cross-bloc cooperation, being open for negotiations etc., and they have participated in a few deals with the government where some of the other left-wing parties are not included. They were also the only Red Bloc party to enter into real negotiations with the Government and DPP on their current health care proposal. Something which infuriated Social Democrat grandee Mogens Lykketoft so much that he told Alternative Health Spokesperson Pernille Schnoor, who defected from SD early in the term, that "I will kill you all if you make that deal. I will personally ensure that you are eradicated in the election". When Schnoor complained to parliament leadership, Lykketoft claimed it was said jokingly. It at least illustrates the tension between the two parties. The Alternative left the negotiations this Tuesday because "it was too rushed, the economic conditions were unsure, and there was too little democracy in the outcome (the regional councils would be abolished)". However, their voters are very left wing and the party is very unlikely to do anything that would bring a right wing PM to power. At the very worst, they could vote against all PMs who are too tough on immigration (incl. Frederiksen) and not support any one. But I also find that scenario quite unlikely. Also doing that would of course increase the influence of DPP even more.

Debate between DPP leader Kristian Thulelsen Dahl and New Right leader Pernille Vermund today in Aabenraa in their common Southern Jutland multi-member constituency. Immigration was of course a key topic. Vermund's message was that DPP let their voters (and Denmark) down when they did not threathen to remove Løkke as PM during the migration crisis if he did not close the border and stop the possibility of seeking asylum. Vermund wants to do this now, and says her party cannot support a PM which does not break with conventions in this way. Thulelsen Dahl argues that LA has tried the tactic with ultimatums which did not make them gain any policy wins at all. Also he declares Vermund a chancer who has just jumped on the anti-immigration train recently after being a "decent conservative" for many years, while Thulelsen Dahl and Kjærsgaard were being hated, attacked and mocked (the classic PM Nyrup Rasmussen quote of them not being "house-trained" was of course brought up).
On economy, you can see on the board behind them were they placed themselves. Vermund placed herself furthest to the right while Thulelsen Dahl went a bit right of centre. Although Vermund positioned herself far to the right, she does not talk in the same way as LA/right-wing thinktanks normally do with focus on detailed aspects of lowering top taxes, reducing benefits, economic incentives etc. It was more like value statements, "the state interferes too much in the ways of the citizens and small companies" etc.


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Diouf
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« Reply #13 on: March 07, 2019, 03:32:19 PM »

Voter movement in Epinion poll for DR:

DPP, who was at 15.2%, has mostly lost votes to Social Democrats (9%), Liberals (6%) and New Right (6%) but Riskær has also eaten into them (3%).

This makes DPP voters the biggest source of Riskær in this poll where the new party is at 1.8%. 29% is from DPP, 21% from LA, 19% from V, 6% from C and 4% from Å. Surprisingly little movement from left wing parties, I would say, considering that some of his policies are quite left-wing. Perhaps his signal to support Løkke simply means that he almost only picks up votes from the Right. And this is of course only one poll with a small sample, but  I would not have guessed DPP to be the biggest "donor", but if this holds up it must be the anti-establishment vibe (particularly against the taxation system) and especially the promise to make international companies pay their taxes. Perhaps his criticism of some of DPP's key immigration policies have gone under the radar so far.

New Right is at 2.8% in this poll. Their voters are made up of 43% former DPPers, 21% former LA voters  and 14% former V voters.

https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/vaelgervandringer
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rob in cal
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« Reply #14 on: March 08, 2019, 02:16:38 AM »

 What would be the type of voter moving from DPP to SD?
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ingemann
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« Reply #15 on: March 08, 2019, 02:23:35 AM »

What would be the type of voter moving from DPP to SD?

From what I have heard and read, right now it’s mostly women with a short or no education.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
Heat
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« Reply #16 on: March 13, 2019, 04:36:43 PM »
« Edited: March 13, 2019, 04:41:51 PM by Heat »

Voter movement in Epinion poll for DR:

DPP, who was at 15.2%, has mostly lost votes to Social Democrats (9%), Liberals (6%) and New Right (6%) but Riskær has also eaten into them (3%).

This makes DPP voters the biggest source of Riskær in this poll where the new party is at 1.8%. 29% is from DPP, 21% from LA, 19% from V, 6% from C and 4% from Å. Surprisingly little movement from left wing parties, I would say, considering that some of his policies are quite left-wing. Perhaps his signal to support Løkke simply means that he almost only picks up votes from the Right. And this is of course only one poll with a small sample, but  I would not have guessed DPP to be the biggest "donor", but if this holds up it must be the anti-establishment vibe (particularly against the taxation system) and especially the promise to make international companies pay their taxes. Perhaps his criticism of some of DPP's key immigration policies have gone under the radar so far.

New Right is at 2.8% in this poll. Their voters are made up of 43% former DPPers, 21% former LA voters  and 14% former V voters.

https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/vaelgervandringer
It seems like the Danish manifestation of the trend we've seen in Israel with Kulanu/Gesher of personality-based parties with vaguely centrist/centre-left economic policies attracting votes from people who don't necessarily mind centre-left economic policies but, for security/cultural reasons, don't want to vote for the actual Left.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #17 on: March 15, 2019, 02:16:04 AM »

3) I dislike callling SDs view on immigration for populist, because Alternative and the Social Liberals pro-immigration policy are every bit as much populism as DPP, it’s just populism for a different voter segment. I would say that SD, SPP, Venstre, Conservative and to lesser extent Unity List have immigration policies which are ideological coherent or pragmatic in nature. While the other parties either lack one (LA) or have a immigration policy building on emotions.
I strongly disagree with this. You need to look at the motivation behind taking a political stance. The "pro-immigration"-parties (which aren't really pro-immigration as much as they want immigrants to be treated decently) take these positions because that is what they believe. It is NOT a winning issue for them. Basically anybody who votes single-issue on being pro-immigration already votes for a left wing party.

The true swing voters in Denmark are working class voters with anti-immigration stances and pro-welfare state stances. The social democrats lost a huge chunk of those voters to the Danish Peoples Party and to Venstre since 2001. The radically changed immigration policies of the social democrats over the last few years has happened because they are sick and tired of losing elections due to this one issue. Any honest social democrat will tell you this.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #18 on: March 15, 2019, 02:21:41 AM »

  I'm interested in the Social Democrats chances and their relations to the DPP. Do they basically agree with the DPP on the immigration issue, and would the DPP give support to a minority Social Democrat government?
The social democrats and Danish Peoples Party are not going to cooperate all that much. The flirtation has happened because in a way it is in both parties interests.

The Danish Peoples Party gain legitimacy from the party that used to trash them and gain influence over the center-right government by showing that they can't take them for granted.

The social democrats are trying to shut down the immigration issue and to win back working class voters that they have lost to the DPP and Venstre.

In reality those two parties won't work together very much. If after the election the center-right parties keep their majority (looks unlikely) the DPP will support another Venstre-lead government. If after the election the center-right parties have a majority (looks likely) we will almost certainly get a Social Democratic one-party government with support from the usual parties in the "red block", including the Social Liberals. A SD-DPP alliance won't happen because 1) it is not needed, 2) the DPP is a right-wing party, 3) the DPP is despised by a huge majority to the left of center.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #19 on: March 15, 2019, 02:22:19 AM »

I think it's time for this topic. Elections will be held on 17 June. Looks like left wing coalition will win. Maybe forum Danes knows more.
June 17th is the latest that the election will be held, but it could be held at any time 3 weeks from now and until june 17th.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #20 on: March 15, 2019, 02:25:16 AM »

 I'm interested in the Social Democrats chances and their relations to the DPP. Do they basically agree with the DPP on the immigration issue, and would the DPP give support to a minority Social Democrat government?

The main reason for the potential cooperation is a historical good personal relationship between the leadership in the two parties. But also that DPP voters are very tired of Venstre. SD and DPP doesn’t basically agree, but SD are only slightly to the left of Venstre on immigration, and much more in line with how DPP sell themselves on economic issue. Beside that DPP have a interest in keeping the Social Liberals away from influence, and SD are incredible tired of the Social Liberals right now, think it will be healthy to sideline them right now.
What would you say was behind this antipathy between SD and Radikale Venstre?

The latter are a bunch of smug moralizing selfserving a-holes. Of course they have always been that way, but under the last government the took it a step too far.
I would call this partisan hackery. The social democrats, and in particular Henrik Sass Larsen, had basically proclaimed that the Social Liberals would gain ZERO influence on a social democratic government after the 2011 elections. Of course, the Social Liberals demonstrated that that is no way to treat them. I would agree that perhaps they took it too far in terms of just flat out humiliating the social democrats, but outside of that they were just more competent when it comes to negotiating than the social democrats - can hardly fault them for that.
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Diouf
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« Reply #21 on: March 15, 2019, 04:48:09 AM »

In reality those two parties won't work together very much. If after the election the center-right parties keep their majority (looks unlikely) the DPP will support another Venstre-lead government. If after the election the center-right parties have a majority (looks likely) we will almost certainly get a Social Democratic one-party government with support from the usual parties in the "red block", including the Social Liberals. A SD-DPP alliance won't happen because 1) it is not needed, 2) the DPP is a right-wing party, 3) the DPP is despised by a huge majority to the left of center.

I think you are talking about two different things. Whether they will work together a lot, and who will officially be support parties. If the Red Bloc parties have a majority, then yes Frederiksen will likely become PM without even needing DPP support. However, the improved relationship with DPP means the Social Liberals would have a less significant strategic position. Especially if Social Democrats + DPP + SPP have their own majority after an election, one could easily imagine a budget and other significant reforms agreed between these three parties. Things will be more complicated if Red-Greens are needed, since DPP would likely push to include as much immigration policy as possible, but even in this scenario it is not completely unlikely. So it seems likely that S and DPP will work together a lot after the election as well. Whether DPP becomes an official support party at some point, largely depends on whether parties like Social Liberals and Alternative will accept being support parties while being kept largely out of influence in some areas. If they accept that role and take the wins in other policy areas, there is no need for DPP to officially support the government. Perhaps, we could even have a funny situation where DPP is support party for some ministers (justice, immigration etc.) in policy areas, where the minister is loudly and directly in conflict with some of the smaller centre-left parties.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #22 on: March 15, 2019, 09:22:21 AM »

In reality those two parties won't work together very much. If after the election the center-right parties keep their majority (looks unlikely) the DPP will support another Venstre-lead government. If after the election the center-right parties have a majority (looks likely) we will almost certainly get a Social Democratic one-party government with support from the usual parties in the "red block", including the Social Liberals. A SD-DPP alliance won't happen because 1) it is not needed, 2) the DPP is a right-wing party, 3) the DPP is despised by a huge majority to the left of center.

I think you are talking about two different things. Whether they will work together a lot, and who will officially be support parties. If the Red Bloc parties have a majority, then yes Frederiksen will likely become PM without even needing DPP support. However, the improved relationship with DPP means the Social Liberals would have a less significant strategic position. Especially if Social Democrats + DPP + SPP have their own majority after an election, one could easily imagine a budget and other significant reforms agreed between these three parties. Things will be more complicated if Red-Greens are needed, since DPP would likely push to include as much immigration policy as possible, but even in this scenario it is not completely unlikely. So it seems likely that S and DPP will work together a lot after the election as well. Whether DPP becomes an official support party at some point, largely depends on whether parties like Social Liberals and Alternative will accept being support parties while being kept largely out of influence in some areas. If they accept that role and take the wins in other policy areas, there is no need for DPP to officially support the government. Perhaps, we could even have a funny situation where DPP is support party for some ministers (justice, immigration etc.) in policy areas, where the minister is loudly and directly in conflict with some of the smaller centre-left parties.
The social liberals will indeed have much less influence than they are used to having, but this is mainly due to the following:

1) There isn't really a workable alternative majority. Since the DPP has moved decisively to the left on fiscal policy it is hard to imagine exactly which reforms the social liberals could threaten to do with the right.

2) Most major economic reforms have already been introduced. The national economy is in excellent shape. For that reason I think it will become more apparent that the social liberals are indeed a center-LEFT party and they will in general have less important issues to work with the right on.

I basically see a future in which the social liberals will have to accept a more modest role as supporting party for social democratic governments or as partners in coalition governments with the social democrats, but in a more humble manner than in the past. At least until another economic crisis hits.

The "good" relationship between the DPP and the social democrats is mostly for show. The social democrats can use the threat of the alternative majority with the DPP to make the rest of the red block parties behave and I predict that this will work so that the vast vast majority of initiatives will have support from a united red block and probably won't include the DPP who will be busy fighting the newer right wing radical parties on who can be most mean to muslims.
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Diouf
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« Reply #23 on: March 15, 2019, 10:03:31 AM »

The social liberals will indeed have much less influence than they are used to having, but this is mainly due to the following:

1) There isn't really a workable alternative majority. Since the DPP has moved decisively to the left on fiscal policy it is hard to imagine exactly which reforms the social liberals could threaten to do with the right.

2) Most major economic reforms have already been introduced. The national economy is in excellent shape. For that reason I think it will become more apparent that the social liberals are indeed a center-LEFT party and they will in general have less important issues to work with the right on.

I basically see a future in which the social liberals will have to accept a more modest role as supporting party for social democratic governments or as partners in coalition governments with the social democrats, but in a more humble manner than in the past. At least until another economic crisis hits.

The "good" relationship between the DPP and the social democrats is mostly for show. The social democrats can use the threat of the alternative majority with the DPP to make the rest of the red block parties behave and I predict that this will work so that the vast vast majority of initiatives will have support from a united red block and probably won't include the DPP who will be busy fighting the newer right wing radical parties on who can be most mean to muslims.

I don't think the DPP's fight with the New Right on immigration will keep them from playing a key part in negotiations on say health care policy and other welfare spending or taxation. DPP will likely be more willing to spend additional billions in these areas and tax high earnerns than the Social Liberals. And on crime and immigration, it seems likely that most significant agreements from S will be made with Blue Bloc parties. And then plenty of agreements are of course made with broad majorities. Pure Red Bloc agreements are likely to happen in areas like climate, environment and education, and some aspects of social policy. Perhaps also transport policy, now that DPP has ditched its public transport deal with the Red Bloc parties and instead made an infrastructure election plan with the Goverment which is more road-oriented.
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Diouf
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« Reply #24 on: March 26, 2019, 06:28:37 AM »

Government and DPP agree common Health Care Proposal



After agreeing a common infrastructure plan a few weeks ago, the government and DPP today agreed on a common proposal for a health care reform. The Alternative was the only Red Bloc party to be seriously involved in negotiations, but dropped out some days ago. The deal proposes closing the five directly elected Regional Councils. Some of the decision-making will be centralized in the Health Ministry while other parts will be de-centralized into 21 Health Communities with representatives from local councils as well as advisory citizen councils. Other aspects include an increase in the number of nurses and doctors educated, access to government-subsisidized physiotherapy 5 times a year without doctor approval, and more investments to secure medical practitioners in the whole country as well as more emergency units in areas where the local hospital has been closed in favour of bigger, specialized hospitals.

With this deal agreed, it seems that a possible government-DPP proposal on early retirement is the only major deal left which could be sealed before the election is called. Such a proposal would be an attempt to counter the Social Democrats' proposal to introduce a right to early retirement for some (undefined) groups in society. The government and DPP can probably not match the right to early retirement for all persons in a certain job, but they might agree on an easier way through the ordinary early retirement system for worn-down workers.
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