2022: Which GOP Governor will be targeted by Dems ?

[LoneStarDem]

A.) FL Governor Ronald DeSantis (R): he's got aspirations for the White House in 2024.

B.) GA Governor Brian Kemp (R)

C.) IA Governor Kim Reynolds (R): she'll be seeking 2nd full 4-year term barring a crazy twist.

D.) Somebody we will not see coming.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Definitely cheating and election-stealer Brian Kemp. He needs to be investigated thoroughly and then impeached for what he did. I am still in awe and shock that he even managed to get elected. Stacey Abrams would have most definitely won if he hadn't stolen the election. Georgians wanted change (i.e. a black governor).

[MassBlueDog]

DeSantis and Kemp, though probably Kemp.  Ducey too.  Always a good idea to target Dunleavy too, the Alaska governor's job is impossible. 

[Del Tachi]

In a favorable GOP midterm environment:  none, Dems will have their hands full defending incumbents in KS, WI, ME, CT and NV and open seats in PA and RI.

If 2022 is Trump's six-year itch, Kemp, DeSantis and Reynolds are probably the only vulnerable GOP incumbents.  Ducey will not be eligible for reelection in 2022.  DeSantis is obviously more vulnerable than Kemp because Florida will still be to the left of Georgia by 2022, and Stacey Abrams' shtick will be getting quite old by the time she launches her third statewide campaign in five years.

Maryland and Massachusetts (if Baker retires) are probably lost to the GOP in either scenario. 

[PAK Man]

Agree on DeSantis, Kemp and Reynolds. All three just barely won their races, and it'd be foolish for Dems not to go after them.

Mike Dunleavy already seems like he's unpopular, so if Dems can maybe get someone in the legislature to go after him, it may be a competitive race.

Chris Sununu won by an underwhelming margin, so I'd imagine he's high at the list of targeted seats.

I can't imagine Dems will ignore Mike DeWine. Cordray came close, but I think what hurt him was that he'd been out of elected politics for too long.

Open Republican-held seats:
- Arizona (with Ducey out, it'll be easier for Dems to get traction against him)
- Maryland (again, with Hogan out, Democrats should pick this seat back up again)
- Massachusetts (see above, though this one will be more of a challenge)

[LoneStarDem]

DeSantis and Kemp, though probably Kemp.  Ducey too.  Always a good idea to target Dunleavy too, the Alaska governor's job is impossible. 

Ducey is TERM LIMITED from succeeding himself in 2022. AZ Governors have to sit out 4 years before running for their old job again.

[LoneStarDem]

Agree on DeSantis, Kemp and Reynolds. All three just barely won their races, and it'd be foolish for Dems not to go after them.

Mike Dunleavy already seems like he's unpopular, so if Dems can maybe get someone in the legislature to go after him, it may be a competitive race.

Chris Sununu won by an underwhelming margin, so I'd imagine he's high at the list of targeted seats.

I can't imagine Dems will ignore Mike DeWine. Cordray came close, but I think what hurt him was that he'd been out of elected politics for too long.

Open Republican-held seats:
- Arizona (with Ducey out, it'll be easier for Dems to get traction against him)
- Maryland (again, with Hogan out, Democrats should pick this seat back up again)
- Massachusetts (see above, though this one will be more of a challenge)

MD: MD Dems have a deep bench of politicos, who are interested in taking back Government House & it doesn't appear Rutherford is interested in running on the GOP side.

MA: Depends on what Baker does. I'll be amazed if he seeks reelection.

AZ: Which one of the AZ down-ballot statewide officeholders do you see running for the Governorship ?

[Politician]

Alaska
Arizona
Florida
Georgia
Iowa
Maryland
Massachusetts if Baker retires

Obviously some depend on the popularity of the governors of AK, FL, GA, IA etc. My guess is that the ones listed will have incumbents that range from polarizing (Kemp and DeSantis) to unpopular (Dunleavy since Alaska is ungovernable). some other races could come on the board of governors prove to be unpopular or if they retire (NH, VT)

This + Ohio and Texas

[Progressive Pessimist]

Once Baker, Hogan, Scott, and Sununu retire those states are the easiest pickups.

In the meantime targeting Ducey's would-be successor, Dunleavy (if he remains unpopular as most Alaska Governors seem to, why is that?) Kemp, and Reynolds might be fruitful.

The Democrats shouldn't waste their time in Florida. Let the GOP have it. Same with Ohio. Those two states are gone for Democrats, barring some sort of miracle or a Democratic tsunami of cataclysmic proportions. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IA is ripe for winning in 2022.

[LoneStarDem]

Once Baker, Hogan, Scott, and Sununu retire those states are the easiest pickups.

In the meantime targeting Ducey's would-be successor, Dunleavy (if he remains unpopular as most Alaska Governors seem to, why is that?) Kemp, and Reynolds might be fruitful.

The Democrats shouldn't waste their time in Florida. Let the GOP have it. Same with Ohio. Those two states are gone for Democrats, barring some sort of miracle or a Democratic tsunami of cataclysmic proportions. 

In short, oil.

Speaking of Dunleavy, how's he doing in AK ?

[MassBlueDog]

Once Baker, Hogan, Scott, and Sununu retire those states are the easiest pickups.

In the meantime targeting Ducey's would-be successor, Dunleavy (if he remains unpopular as most Alaska Governors seem to, why is that?) Kemp, and Reynolds might be fruitful.

The Democrats shouldn't waste their time in Florida. Let the GOP have it. Same with Ohio. Those two states are gone for Democrats, barring some sort of miracle or a Democratic tsunami of cataclysmic proportions. 

In short, oil.

Speaking of Dunleavy, how's he doing in AK ?

Well, he tried to savagely cut the budget, triggering a rebellion that got a Dem speaker in the house even though there are more Republicans.  In short, not too well.

[😥]

Ron DeSantis
Brian Kemp
Kim Reynolds
Mike DeWine
Kristi Noem

[LoneStarDem]

Ron DeSantis
Brian Kemp
Kim Reynolds
Mike DeWine
Kristi Noem

SD: Could we see a 2022 rematch between Noem & Sutton ?

[HarrisonL]

Honestly the Dems will target all three of them.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis

[S019]

Ducey and Hogan's open seats will be heavily targeted (Hogan's is Safe d)


They will go after Kemp and DeSantis, and maybe even Abbott, of it is a sixth-year midterm

Reynolds will be somewhat targeted, but she could also vacate her seat, I still the IA-GOV mansion stays red

Of these, I think Kemp loses, and in a sixth-year midterm, Rep will trade Kemp to the Dems in exchange for Kelly

If a Dem is President, Hogan's seat flips, but Dems lose governorships in swing States across the country

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ, FL, IA, ME, MD, NV, NH, PA & WI will be targetted

[S019]

AZ, FL, IA, ME, MD, NV, NH, PA & WI will be targetted

KS is not Lean D
I would say Tilt R, and that's generous to Laura Kelly, she will probably be Donnelly'd (fluke win in a red state who goes down in flames in a wave year for the Democrats), if a Democrat wins, she will be Blanched
Also I would say OH and IA are Likely R
I would put FL at Lean
PA should be Tilt-Lean D
NV should be Likely/Safe D
MA is Safe r, if Baker runs, Safe D if he doesn't (Karyn Polito will not make it competitive, she will be Kerry Healey 2.0 if she runs)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Laura Kelly is an inoffensive Dem that can buck the R trend

[S019]

Laura Kelly is an inoffensive Dem that can buck the R trend

POLARIZATION

No more Browmback to hold back Republicans