A Question About the 2003 MS State Auditor election...
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  A Question About the 2003 MS State Auditor election...
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« on: March 06, 2019, 12:37:18 PM »

I was browsing Mississippi election results, and I noticed that in the 2003 State Auditor election, Phil Bryant managed to get over 90% of the vote in two majority-black Delta counties (Bolivar and Coahoma), even getting nearly 98% in Bolivar. how is this possible? is this an error?

Also, why was Bryant especially popular/well liked in those two majority-black counties but not necessarily in others, considering he got a far lower share of the vote in counties like Holmes, Claiborne, Jefferson, Noxubee, etc.

Lastly, does anyone have any guesses as to what percentage of the black vote Bryant got statewide in this election?
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #1 on: March 06, 2019, 01:17:20 PM »

The most likely reason is that a lot of black voters left the ballot blank in those counties in that race because there was no Democrat (only a Reform candidate).

Just using one of your examples, Bryant only got 48 votes more than Barbour did in Bolivar County. Keep in mind that Barbour only got 35.1% of the vote in Bolivar. It's a similar story in Coahoma, where Bryant only had 41 votes more than Barbour (who had 36.5% in that county).

This isn't actually particularly unusual behavior in the Black Belt either. In 2014's Senate race in neighboring Alabama, Jeff Sessions was uncontested, resulting in him getting 90%+ of the vote in nearly the entire Black Belt. However, when you include blank ballots, you notice how most of the Black Belt simply left their ballots blank:
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« Reply #2 on: March 06, 2019, 01:39:46 PM »

The most likely reason is that a lot of black voters left the ballot blank in those counties in that race because there was no Democrat (only a Reform candidate).

Just using one of your examples, Bryant only got 48 votes more than Barbour did in Bolivar County. Keep in mind that Barbour only got 35.1% of the vote in Bolivar. It's a similar story in Coahoma, where Bryant only had 41 votes more than Barbour (who had 36.5% in that county).

This isn't actually particularly unusual behavior in the Black Belt either. In 2014's Senate race in neighboring Alabama, Jeff Sessions was uncontested, resulting in him getting 90%+ of the vote in nearly the entire Black Belt. However, when you include blank ballots, you notice how most of the Black Belt simply left their ballots blank:


According to the Atlas, Bryant's opponent was a Democrat, but it does appear turnout was way down in certain counties... which leads to the question of why that was, considering Bryant wasn't running against a third party candidate.
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« Reply #3 on: March 06, 2019, 01:45:00 PM »

The most likely reason is that a lot of black voters left the ballot blank in those counties in that race because there was no Democrat (only a Reform candidate).

Just using one of your examples, Bryant only got 48 votes more than Barbour did in Bolivar County. Keep in mind that Barbour only got 35.1% of the vote in Bolivar. It's a similar story in Coahoma, where Bryant only had 41 votes more than Barbour (who had 36.5% in that county).

This isn't actually particularly unusual behavior in the Black Belt either. In 2014's Senate race in neighboring Alabama, Jeff Sessions was uncontested, resulting in him getting 90%+ of the vote in nearly the entire Black Belt. However, when you include blank ballots, you notice how most of the Black Belt simply left their ballots blank:



According to the Atlas, Bryant's opponent was a Democrat, and looking at county vote totals, turnout doesn't seem to be particularly depressed in the majority-black counties.

Atlas listing Blackburn as a Democrat is an input error. The Mississippi Secretary of State's certified candidate list for 2003 has Blackburn listed as a Reform candidate.

On your second point, turnout isn't mutually exclusive to people leaving their ballots blank in a particular race that doesn't feature the party they voted for. I can demonstrate that here, using 2003 Attorney General as a reference point for downballot voting (some voters leave the whole downballot blank):

Bolivar County votes for 2003 Governor: 11,387
Bolivar County votes for 2003 Attorney General: 9,570
Bolivar County votes for 2003 Auditor: 4,148

Coahoma County votes for 2003 Governor: 6,608
Coahoma County votes for 2003 Attorney General: 5,285
Coahoma County votes for 2003 Auditor: 2,620

Sunflower County votes for 2003 Governor: 7,154
Sunflower County votes for 2003 Attorney General: 7,041
Sunflower County votes for 2003 Auditor: 6,110

Jasper County votes for 2003 Governor: 6,534
Jasper County votes for 2003 Attorney General: 6,475
Jasper County votes for 2003 Auditor: 5,707

Basically, many Dem voters (particularly black Dems) simply didn't bother to vote in the Auditor's race, even if they did vote in other downballot races.
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