What factors cause an area to trend Democratic

[Scottholes 2.0]

Generally speaking? Chicago's collar suburbs, for instance, are trending rapidly Democratic despite being slow-growing. Also, other Midwestern counties like Hennepin and Dane are trending Democratic, even thought their net in-migrations are low compared to places like King County or Travis County. Why is that?

[cvparty]

most of the change is due to existing highly educated populations swinging dem. many fast-growing places are destinations for people with high educational attainment bc those people have more mobility than the uneducated, but not all highly educated places are fast-growing

so there are 4 general types of areas
1) slow-growth, uneducated - trend R
- ex: rurals, basically
2) slow-growth, educated - trend D, but could trend R in the future due to brain drain/decline
- ex: suburbs in NJ (morris, somerset, hunterdon), suburbs in IL (lake, dupage)
3) fast-growing, educated - trend D
- ex: urban centers/suburbs like travis co (TX), forsyth co (GA), wake co (NC), williamson co (TN)
4) fast-growing, uneducated - may trend R short-term due to the existing population, but may trend D in the long run due to educated in-migrants
- ex: exurban areas like johnston co (NC), lancaster co (SC), hall co (GA), ellis co (TX)

[Cokeland Saxton]

Usually, an area swings D if:

- The area experiences high rates of in-migration. For example, south Texas often votes D lately due to international migration from Mexico

- Fast growth. Often, this growth is attributed to younger people moving in for jobs. These young people are more likely to be educated and thus more likely to vote D.

- Demographic shifts. In areas that have experience white flight, such as Detroit, St. Louis, or Gary. The population that is left behind is sometimes majority non-white. Most of these minority groups, such as Hispanics and blacks, tend to vote D.

[Nyvin]

Opportunity and access to higher education.

[King of Kensington]

For some reason, "transplants" are now associated with trending Democratic (in the 70s and 80s they were associated with a shift to the GOP). Though I think "transplants = inevitable shift toward liberalism" talk occurred around 2008 or so.

[cvparty]

For some reason, "transplants" are now associated with trending Democratic (in the 70s and 80s they were associated with a shift to the GOP). Though I think "transplants = inevitable shift toward liberalism" talk occurred around 2008 or so.

it’s bc people with high educational attainment (who tend to be/are trending dem) have more freedom to migrate

[Tekken_Guy]

Growing minority population, migration from more liberal areas, high levels of college education.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Areas that sane people would actively want to live in.

[darklordoftech]

For some reason, "transplants" are now associated with trending Democratic (in the 70s and 80s they were associated with a shift to the GOP). Though I think "transplants = inevitable shift toward liberalism" talk occurred around 2008 or so.

Virginia flipping in 2008 could be where this talk came from.

[jamestroll]

One huge correlation is openness and support of mass transportation. Though the rejection of MARTA expansion from Gwinnett County, GA was stunning and devastating, we should note that it was in an off month and off year election in which the white southern folk came out in droves to oppose MARTA.

Off topic but to oppose mass transit just to oppose it is literally sick. I could compromise and have been talked into support only funding Bus Rapid Transit lines and a single Marta Line to downtown Atlanta or the Airport but the white southern folk came out in droves to destroy it. Oh well!

Another large factor is the fact that many democratic leaning constituencies are being priced out of the central city so they are making their way further into the suburbs. Look at Lake and DuPage, Illinois.

Democratic leaning constituencies may also want their own yards and avoid high crime as well. Look at my land in St. Louis, Missouri. At first St. Louis County's democratic move was due to African Americans fleeing the city into the county. Now a days suburban trends have also contributed to that trend in which we saw McCaskill winning Missouri's 2nd while losing statewide by 6.

Also as suburbs function more like an urban area voting habits of even the oldest voters become more moderate. It is very difficult to run a city on a conservative platform. In rural areas you can often fend for yourselves. In urban areas you need government to maintain roads, mass transit, schools, etc. Your needs are wildly different.

The GOP represents the past and Democrats represent the future.

[Wazza [INACTIVE]]

Inflow of minorities and young people have been the two most prominent factors over the last 30-40 years. California is a good example with the rapid growth of the Hispanic population and Silicon valley. Going from a lean-R competitive state to a solid blue state.