NJ Redistricting

[S019]

I was wondering if anyone knows how the NJ commission will handle redistricting


Will they draw incumbent protections to keep the 11-1
OR
Will they draw new lines to create a more competitive map

[Nyvin]

I would think the NJ dems would push for a 9-3 or 10-2 map rather than 11-1 since 11-1 would obviously be pretty precarious for their seats.   A 9D-3R map would make all 9 dem seats as solid as needed, a 10-2 map would probably some of the southern seats kinda vulnerable.  1 R seat in the north with everything else solid D is easy as pie.

[cvparty]

I would think the NJ dems would push for a 9-3 or 10-2 map rather than 11-1 since 11-1 would obviously be pretty precarious for their seats.   A 9D-3R map would make all 9 dem seats as solid as needed, a 10-2 map would probably some of the southern seats kinda vulnerable.  1 R seat in the north with everything else solid D is easy as pie.

who would go in the north tho

[Oryxslayer]

I would think the NJ dems would push for a 9-3 or 10-2 map rather than 11-1 since 11-1 would obviously be pretty precarious for their seats.   A 9D-3R map would make all 9 dem seats as solid as needed, a 10-2 map would probably some of the southern seats kinda vulnerable.  1 R seat in the north with everything else solid D is easy as pie.

who would go in the north tho

Ideally for NJ Dems, Booker goes national and one of the northerners succeeds him. Make the 'short' stick phenomenon much easier. But in the likely event Booker remains, the probably merge the blue bits of 07/11, and some more Dems, and see which incumbent survives the primary.

[S019]

Which district do you think they would cede:
NJ-5
NJ-11
NJ-7

Would they try to keep NJ-7 and cede one of NJ-5 or NJ-11

Also if Van Drew and/or Kim lose in 2020, how does that impact redistricting

[S019]

I would think the NJ dems would push for a 9-3 or 10-2 map rather than 11-1 since 11-1 would obviously be pretty precarious for their seats.   A 9D-3R map would make all 9 dem seats as solid as needed, a 10-2 map would probably some of the southern seats kinda vulnerable.  1 R seat in the north with everything else solid D is easy as pie.

who would go in the north tho

Ideally for NJ Dems, Booker goes national and one of the northerners succeeds him. Make the 'short' stick phenomenon much easier. But in the likely event Booker remains, the probably merge the blue bits of 07/11, and some more Dems, and see which incumbent survives the primary.

So would this create an R-vote sink in the Republican parts of Morris, Sussex, and Warren coutues

[Oryxslayer]

Which district do you think they would cede:
NJ-5
NJ-11
NJ-7

Would they try to keep NJ-7 and cede one of NJ-5 or NJ-11

Also if Van Drew and/or Kim lose in 2020, how does that impact redistricting

If there end up being two southern reps and 0 northern Reps, look for NJ04 to get messy - at least in Dem proposals. I got a map like this in storage where NJ04 crosses the central belt and then eats up a good chunk of the far North Republicans.

[S019]

Which district do you think they would cede:
NJ-5
NJ-11
NJ-7

Would they try to keep NJ-7 and cede one of NJ-5 or NJ-11

Also if Van Drew and/or Kim lose in 2020, how does that impact redistricting

If there end up being two southern reps and 0 northern Reps, look for NJ04 to get messy - at least in Dem proposals. I got a map like this in storage where NJ04 crosses the central belt and then eats up a good chunk of the far North Republicans.

NJ is redistricted by a 6-6-1 commission, with 6 Dems, 6 Reps, and 1 consensus member, if they cannot agree on this member, the member is chosen by NJ Supreme Court, which is 3-3-1, with the 1, being an R-tilting independent, who worked with Kean and Wittman

Such a blatant gerrymander, would not get past the commission

[Oryxslayer]

Which district do you think they would cede:
NJ-5
NJ-11
NJ-7

Would they try to keep NJ-7 and cede one of NJ-5 or NJ-11

Also if Van Drew and/or Kim lose in 2020, how does that impact redistricting

If there end up being two southern reps and 0 northern Reps, look for NJ04 to get messy - at least in Dem proposals. I got a map like this in storage where NJ04 crosses the central belt and then eats up a good chunk of the far North Republicans.

NJ is redistricted by a 6-6-1 commission, with 6 Dems, 6 Reps, and 1 consensus member, if they cannot agree on this member, the member is chosen by NJ Supreme Court, which is 3-3-1, with the 1, being an R-tilting independent, who worked with Kean and Wittman

Such a blatant gerrymander, would not get past the commission

You would think so, except Christie got a republican Gerry in 2010 via leverage. They cut a blue seat in a blue state, and then drew 5 pub and one LoBoindo seats. All this was done via Christie using his power as governor to influence the decision process of that 13th member.

I expect Murphy to do the exact same thing.

[S019]

Which district do you think they would cede:
NJ-5
NJ-11
NJ-7

Would they try to keep NJ-7 and cede one of NJ-5 or NJ-11

Also if Van Drew and/or Kim lose in 2020, how does that impact redistricting

If there end up being two southern reps and 0 northern Reps, look for NJ04 to get messy - at least in Dem proposals. I got a map like this in storage where NJ04 crosses the central belt and then eats up a good chunk of the far North Republicans.

NJ is redistricted by a 6-6-1 commission, with 6 Dems, 6 Reps, and 1 consensus member, if they cannot agree on this member, the member is chosen by NJ Supreme Court, which is 3-3-1, with the 1, being an R-tilting independent, who worked with Kean and Wittman

Such a blatant gerrymander, would not get past the commission

You would think so, except Christie got a republican Gerry in 2010 via leverage. They cut a blue seat in a blue state, and then drew 5 pub and one LoBoindo seats. All this was done via Christie using his power as governor to influence the decision process of that 13th member.

I expect Murphy to do the exact same thing.

But Reps, if they want to, can just send it to the state Supreme Court, which would favor them, if Dems try to merge Smith’s and Malinowski’s district that is a gerrymander that will end up in a court. Another issue with merging districts, is that you have to create new ones, as NJ is not projected to lose a CD

[Oryxslayer]

Which district do you think they would cede:
NJ-5
NJ-11
NJ-7

Would they try to keep NJ-7 and cede one of NJ-5 or NJ-11

Also if Van Drew and/or Kim lose in 2020, how does that impact redistricting

If there end up being two southern reps and 0 northern Reps, look for NJ04 to get messy - at least in Dem proposals. I got a map like this in storage where NJ04 crosses the central belt and then eats up a good chunk of the far North Republicans.

NJ is redistricted by a 6-6-1 commission, with 6 Dems, 6 Reps, and 1 consensus member, if they cannot agree on this member, the member is chosen by NJ Supreme Court, which is 3-3-1, with the 1, being an R-tilting independent, who worked with Kean and Wittman

Such a blatant gerrymander, would not get past the commission

You would think so, except Christie got a republican Gerry in 2010 via leverage. They cut a blue seat in a blue state, and then drew 5 pub and one LoBoindo seats. All this was done via Christie using his power as governor to influence the decision process of that 13th member.

I expect Murphy to do the exact same thing.

But Reps, if they want to, can just send it to the state Supreme Court, which would favor them, if Dems try to merge Smith’s and Malinowski’s district that is a gerrymander that will end up in a court. Another issue with merging districts, is that you have to create new ones, as NJ is not projected to lose a CD

I think you miss the point of what I was saying. NJ ain't losing a seat in 2020, and Dems probably won't be drawing Smith out. What I ment is that Murphy, via his advantageous position as governor will influence the 13th vote and get the map passed 7-6. I used Christie as an example  because he withheld funds for the university that the nonpartisan 13th was a member of unless he accepted the Republicans plan.

[S019]

Which district do you think they would cede:
NJ-5
NJ-11
NJ-7

Would they try to keep NJ-7 and cede one of NJ-5 or NJ-11

Also if Van Drew and/or Kim lose in 2020, how does that impact redistricting

If there end up being two southern reps and 0 northern Reps, look for NJ04 to get messy - at least in Dem proposals. I got a map like this in storage where NJ04 crosses the central belt and then eats up a good chunk of the far North Republicans.

NJ is redistricted by a 6-6-1 commission, with 6 Dems, 6 Reps, and 1 consensus member, if they cannot agree on this member, the member is chosen by NJ Supreme Court, which is 3-3-1, with the 1, being an R-tilting independent, who worked with Kean and Wittman

Such a blatant gerrymander, would not get past the commission

You would think so, except Christie got a republican Gerry in 2010 via leverage. They cut a blue seat in a blue state, and then drew 5 pub and one LoBoindo seats. All this was done via Christie using his power as governor to influence the decision process of that 13th member.

I expect Murphy to do the exact same thing.

But Reps, if they want to, can just send it to the state Supreme Court, which would favor them, if Dems try to merge Smith’s and Malinowski’s district that is a gerrymander that will end up in a court. Another issue with merging districts, is that you have to create new ones, as NJ is not projected to lose a CD

I think you miss the point of what I was saying. NJ ain't losing a seat in 2020, and Dems probably won't be drawing Smith out. What I ment is that Murphy, via his advantageous position as governor will influence the 13th vote and get the map passed 7-6. I used Christie as an example  because he withheld funds for the university that the nonpartisan 13th was a member of unless he accepted the Republicans plan.

Then NJ Rs could nominate someone from a private university, or someone from the private sector

[Oryxslayer]

Which district do you think they would cede:
NJ-5
NJ-11
NJ-7

Would they try to keep NJ-7 and cede one of NJ-5 or NJ-11

Also if Van Drew and/or Kim lose in 2020, how does that impact redistricting

If there end up being two southern reps and 0 northern Reps, look for NJ04 to get messy - at least in Dem proposals. I got a map like this in storage where NJ04 crosses the central belt and then eats up a good chunk of the far North Republicans.

NJ is redistricted by a 6-6-1 commission, with 6 Dems, 6 Reps, and 1 consensus member, if they cannot agree on this member, the member is chosen by NJ Supreme Court, which is 3-3-1, with the 1, being an R-tilting independent, who worked with Kean and Wittman

Such a blatant gerrymander, would not get past the commission

You would think so, except Christie got a republican Gerry in 2010 via leverage. They cut a blue seat in a blue state, and then drew 5 pub and one LoBoindo seats. All this was done via Christie using his power as governor to influence the decision process of that 13th member.

I expect Murphy to do the exact same thing.

But Reps, if they want to, can just send it to the state Supreme Court, which would favor them, if Dems try to merge Smith’s and Malinowski’s district that is a gerrymander that will end up in a court. Another issue with merging districts, is that you have to create new ones, as NJ is not projected to lose a CD

I think you miss the point of what I was saying. NJ ain't losing a seat in 2020, and Dems probably won't be drawing Smith out. What I ment is that Murphy, via his advantageous position as governor will influence the 13th vote and get the map passed 7-6. I used Christie as an example  because he withheld funds for the university that the nonpartisan 13th was a member of unless he accepted the Republicans plan.

Then NJ Rs could nominate someone from a private university, or someone from the private sector

Who knows what will happen. But precedent says Murphy (or Norcross for that matter) will use every tool available to try and get his way.

[Tekken_Guy]

Which district do you think they would cede:
NJ-5
NJ-11
NJ-7

Would they try to keep NJ-7 and cede one of NJ-5 or NJ-11

Also if Van Drew and/or Kim lose in 2020, how does that impact redistricting

I think they get rid of NJ-7, move Malinowski into NJ-11, and have Sherrill take over NJ-9 once Pascrell retires.

[Senator Incitatus]

Incumbent protection is always the name of the game in NJ. I believe it's explicitly written into the law as the ideal aim of district configuration. If not, it's got an extremely long historical basis.