Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 16, 2019, 08:42:38 pm
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Virginiá)
  KS Gov 2022
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Poll
Question: Rate KS Sen in 2022, you get two votes, one for a Dem Presidency, the other for a Rep Presidency
#1Safe D  
#2Likely D  
#3Lean D  
#4Tilt D  
#5Tossup  
#6Tilt R  
#7Lean R  
#8Likely R  
#9Safe R  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 75

Author Topic: KS Gov 2022  (Read 2001 times)
S019
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,984
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -0.35

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: March 13, 2019, 06:51:49 am »

Lean R, Kelly loses 53-45 if Rep wins

Safe R, Kelly loses 60-40, if Dem wins
Logged
LoneStarDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 982
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2019, 07:52:00 am »

Safe GOP. Kelly is finished regardless in 2022.
Logged
PAK Man
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 539


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2019, 10:17:07 am »

Tilt D/Tossup. Kansans don't really kick out incumbent governors (Colyer's primary loss notwithstanding).
Logged
smoltchanov
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,298
Russian Federation
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2019, 01:57:21 pm »

Tilt D/Tossup. Kansans don't really kick out incumbent governors (Colyer's primary loss notwithstanding).
Logged
Torranski
Torrain
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 955
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: March 13, 2019, 02:03:07 pm »

There are just too many variables right now.
Kelly’s success/failure, her approval, the margin in the 2020 senate race, the incumbent. Heck, who knows what the state economy will look like as the legislature tries to unravel Brownback’s mess.

Not to mention, we have no idea what affect the state legislature’s actions and partisan makeup will do to public perception of Kelly’s term.
Logged
Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
Enlightened_Centrist 420
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: March 13, 2019, 02:27:46 pm »

Pure tossup as of right now.


Logged
Skunk
hynza
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,426


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -7.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: March 13, 2019, 03:05:45 pm »

Tossup. Anybody calling this "Safe R" is ridiculous.
Logged
Lurtz
Thunder98
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,463
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: March 13, 2019, 03:31:21 pm »

Toss-up,
Logged
Roll Roons
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 740
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: March 13, 2019, 04:05:03 pm »

National environment really only matters for gubernatorial races if it's an open seat. With an incumbent it's always a referendum on them. That's why Baker, Hogan and Phil Scott all got reelected in landslides. Has Kelly gotten off to a good start?
Logged
S019
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,984
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -0.35

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: March 13, 2019, 05:08:46 pm »

National environment really only matters for gubernatorial races if it's an open seat. With an incumbent it's always a referendum on them. That's why Baker, Hogan and Phil Scott all got reelected in landslides. Has Kelly gotten off to a good start?
Ah, yes, MD Gov Bob Ehrlich was not reelected in 2006, despite positive approvals, he lost by 6-7
Logged
Roll Roons
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 740
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: March 13, 2019, 05:11:18 pm »

National environment really only matters for gubernatorial races if it's an open seat. With an incumbent it's always a referendum on them. That's why Baker, Hogan and Phil Scott all got reelected in landslides. Has Kelly gotten off to a good start?
Ah, yes, MD Gov Bob Ehrlich was not reelected in 2006, despite positive approvals, he lost by 6-7


Remind me what happened in Maryland in 2018? And Trump is probably more toxic in Maryland than W ever was.
Logged
Cory Booker
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27,897
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: March 13, 2019, 10:10:33 pm »

Tilt D, KS is an R State; but Kelly is pragamatic enough to win. Just like Reynolds, who was conservative, was able to hold her own in a Blue Collar state.
Logged
Ses
jk2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,242


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: March 13, 2019, 11:52:59 pm »

Probably tossup. Approvals will say a lot.
Logged
Nutmeg
thepolitic
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,984
United States Minor Outlying Islands


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: March 14, 2019, 04:16:18 pm »

but Kelly is pragamatic enough to win. Just like Reynolds, who was conservative, was able to hold her own in a Blue Collar state.

WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT
Logged
Cory Booker
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27,897
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: March 15, 2019, 12:49:50 am »

but Kelly is pragamatic enough to win. Just like Reynolds, who was conservative, was able to hold her own in a Blue Collar state.

WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT


She has reformed schools just like she said she would.  Sebelius won in R KS due to her education agenda, Kelly will win again
Logged
Nutmeg
thepolitic
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,984
United States Minor Outlying Islands


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: March 15, 2019, 09:10:50 am »

but Kelly is pragamatic enough to win. Just like Reynolds, who was conservative, was able to hold her own in a Blue Collar state.
WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT
She has reformed schools just like she said she would.  Sebelius won in R KS due to her education agenda, Kelly will win again

But Reynolds as in the governor of Iowa?
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,799
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: March 15, 2019, 09:11:55 am »

Probably tossup. Approvals will say a lot.
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,663
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: March 21, 2019, 08:04:18 pm »

It's a tossup. It will depend on how popular Kelly ends up being and who the GOP nominates against her.
Logged
#Kavanaugh For Prison
Solid4096
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,085


Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.88

P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: March 25, 2019, 07:15:34 pm »

National environment really only matters for gubernatorial races if it's an open seat. With an incumbent it's always a referendum on them. That's why Baker, Hogan and Phil Scott all got reelected in landslides. Has Kelly gotten off to a good start?
Ah, yes, MD Gov Bob Ehrlich was not reelected in 2006, despite positive approvals, he lost by 6-7


Remind me what happened in Maryland in 2018? And Trump is probably more toxic in Maryland than W ever was.

Trump also lost Anne Arundel County which is a place that not even Obama could ever win.

Anyways, the Kansas Republican Party is extremely incompetent, about as much as the Massachusetts Democratic Party. Laura Kelly 2022 could easily be a flip of Charlie Baker 2018.
Logged
Peyton 🌹
HowsThisForAUsername
Newbie
*
Posts: 7
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: March 31, 2019, 02:47:24 pm »

Tilt D. I can't say safely it would be lean yet, but the demographics are slowly changing. Brownback screwed Kansas.
Logged
Edgar Suit Larry
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22,680
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: March 31, 2019, 07:12:08 pm »

I could see her losing if Trump lost in 2020. Having a one-term party control of the WH would throw a lot of things into contention.
Logged
Oashigo
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 260
United States


P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: April 04, 2019, 09:19:56 pm »

What about Mike Pompeo? Would he be a strong candidate?
Logged
SunriseAroundTheWorld
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,800
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: April 05, 2019, 03:32:23 pm »

she wins by 9.99%
Logged
ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,268
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.90, S: -7.65

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: April 11, 2019, 02:39:38 pm »

A toss-up to start, nowhere outside of Lean R or D for sure.
Logged
Cory Booker
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27,897
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: April 12, 2019, 07:37:37 pm »

Dems are favored to pickup IA and MD and keep WI and PA Govs and R's are favored to win KS, keep AZ, OH and FL govs. MA, NH and VT are tossups
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC