KS Gov 2022
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Poll
Question: Rate KS Sen in 2022, you get two votes, one for a Dem Presidency, the other for a Rep Presidency
#1
Safe D		  
#2
Likely D		  
#3
Lean D		  
#4
Tilt D		  
#5
Tossup		  
#6
Tilt R		  
#7
Lean R		  
#8
Likely R		  
#9
Safe R		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 75

Author Topic: KS Gov 2022  (Read 2921 times)
S019
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« on: March 13, 2019, 06:51:49 AM »
Lean R, Kelly loses 53-45 if Rep wins

Safe R, Kelly loses 60-40, if Dem wins
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2019, 07:52:00 AM »
Safe GOP. Kelly is finished regardless in 2022.
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PAK Man
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« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2019, 10:17:07 AM »
Tilt D/Tossup. Kansans don't really kick out incumbent governors (Colyer's primary loss notwithstanding).
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2019, 01:57:21 PM »
Quote from: PAK Man on March 13, 2019, 10:17:07 AM
Tilt D/Tossup. Kansans don't really kick out incumbent governors (Colyer's primary loss notwithstanding).
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Torrain
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« Reply #4 on: March 13, 2019, 02:03:07 PM »
There are just too many variables right now.
Kelly’s success/failure, her approval, the margin in the 2020 senate race, the incumbent. Heck, who knows what the state economy will look like as the legislature tries to unravel Brownback’s mess.

Not to mention, we have no idea what affect the state legislature’s actions and partisan makeup will do to public perception of Kelly’s term.
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« Reply #5 on: March 13, 2019, 02:27:46 PM »
Pure tossup as of right now.
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Skunk
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« Reply #6 on: March 13, 2019, 03:05:45 PM »
Tossup. Anybody calling this "Safe R" is ridiculous.
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Thunder98
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« Reply #7 on: March 13, 2019, 03:31:21 PM »
Toss-up,
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #8 on: March 13, 2019, 04:05:03 PM »
National environment really only matters for gubernatorial races if it's an open seat. With an incumbent it's always a referendum on them. That's why Baker, Hogan and Phil Scott all got reelected in landslides. Has Kelly gotten off to a good start?
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S019
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« Reply #9 on: March 13, 2019, 05:08:46 PM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on March 13, 2019, 04:05:03 PM
National environment really only matters for gubernatorial races if it's an open seat. With an incumbent it's always a referendum on them. That's why Baker, Hogan and Phil Scott all got reelected in landslides. Has Kelly gotten off to a good start?
Ah, yes, MD Gov Bob Ehrlich was not reelected in 2006, despite positive approvals, he lost by 6-7
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #10 on: March 13, 2019, 05:11:18 PM »
Quote from: Suburban New Jersey Conservative on March 13, 2019, 05:08:46 PM
Quote from: Roll Roons on March 13, 2019, 04:05:03 PM
National environment really only matters for gubernatorial races if it's an open seat. With an incumbent it's always a referendum on them. That's why Baker, Hogan and Phil Scott all got reelected in landslides. Has Kelly gotten off to a good start?
Ah, yes, MD Gov Bob Ehrlich was not reelected in 2006, despite positive approvals, he lost by 6-7


Remind me what happened in Maryland in 2018? And Trump is probably more toxic in Maryland than W ever was.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #11 on: March 13, 2019, 10:10:33 PM »
Tilt D, KS is an R State; but Kelly is pragamatic enough to win. Just like Reynolds, who was conservative, was able to hold her own in a Blue Collar state.
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Sestak
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« Reply #12 on: March 13, 2019, 11:52:59 PM »
Probably tossup. Approvals will say a lot.
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Nutmeg
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« Reply #13 on: March 14, 2019, 04:16:18 PM »
Quote from: olowakandi on March 13, 2019, 10:10:33 PM
but Kelly is pragamatic enough to win. Just like Reynolds, who was conservative, was able to hold her own in a Blue Collar state.

WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #14 on: March 15, 2019, 12:49:50 AM »
Quote from: Nutmeg on March 14, 2019, 04:16:18 PM
Quote from: olowakandi on March 13, 2019, 10:10:33 PM
but Kelly is pragamatic enough to win. Just like Reynolds, who was conservative, was able to hold her own in a Blue Collar state.

WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT


She has reformed schools just like she said she would.  Sebelius won in R KS due to her education agenda, Kelly will win again
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Nutmeg
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« Reply #15 on: March 15, 2019, 09:10:50 AM »
Quote from: olowakandi on March 15, 2019, 12:49:50 AM
Quote from: Nutmeg on March 14, 2019, 04:16:18 PM
Quote from: olowakandi on March 13, 2019, 10:10:33 PM
but Kelly is pragamatic enough to win. Just like Reynolds, who was conservative, was able to hold her own in a Blue Collar state.
WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT
She has reformed schools just like she said she would.  Sebelius won in R KS due to her education agenda, Kelly will win again

But Reynolds as in the governor of Iowa?
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Free Bird
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« Reply #16 on: March 15, 2019, 09:11:55 AM »
Quote from: JEC4P on March 13, 2019, 11:52:59 PM
Probably tossup. Approvals will say a lot.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #17 on: March 21, 2019, 08:04:18 PM »
It's a tossup. It will depend on how popular Kelly ends up being and who the GOP nominates against her.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #18 on: March 25, 2019, 07:15:34 PM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on March 13, 2019, 05:11:18 PM
Quote from: Suburban New Jersey Conservative on March 13, 2019, 05:08:46 PM
Quote from: Roll Roons on March 13, 2019, 04:05:03 PM
National environment really only matters for gubernatorial races if it's an open seat. With an incumbent it's always a referendum on them. That's why Baker, Hogan and Phil Scott all got reelected in landslides. Has Kelly gotten off to a good start?
Ah, yes, MD Gov Bob Ehrlich was not reelected in 2006, despite positive approvals, he lost by 6-7


Remind me what happened in Maryland in 2018? And Trump is probably more toxic in Maryland than W ever was.

Trump also lost Anne Arundel County which is a place that not even Obama could ever win.

Anyways, the Kansas Republican Party is extremely incompetent, about as much as the Massachusetts Democratic Party. Laura Kelly 2022 could easily be a flip of Charlie Baker 2018.
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Natalie
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« Reply #19 on: March 31, 2019, 02:47:24 PM »
Tilt D. I can't say safely it would be lean yet, but the demographics are slowly changing. Brownback screwed Kansas.
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Person Man
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« Reply #20 on: March 31, 2019, 07:12:08 PM »
I could see her losing if Trump lost in 2020. Having a one-term party control of the WH would throw a lot of things into contention.
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Galeel
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« Reply #21 on: April 04, 2019, 09:19:56 PM »
What about Mike Pompeo? Would he be a strong candidate?
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #22 on: April 11, 2019, 02:39:38 PM »
A toss-up to start, nowhere outside of Lean R or D for sure.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #23 on: April 12, 2019, 07:37:37 PM »
Dems are favored to pickup IA and MD and keep WI and PA Govs and R's are favored to win KS, keep AZ, OH and FL govs. MA, NH and VT are tossups
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #24 on: April 12, 2019, 07:40:09 PM »
I'd say Tilt R just because it's likely a Democratic midterm.
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