Manchin V Morrisey 2016 instead of 2018. Would Manchin have done better?

[lfromnj]

Say the Manchin v Morrisey senate race was held in 2016 instead of 2018. Do any of you think that Manchin would have done better. I think he would atleast  have won a lot of coal counties.

[Sestak]

Probably a little better; Manchin could separate himself from national race a little more on account of the fact that his race wouldn't be the most nationalized one in the state.

[S019]

No,

He would have to deal with Trump coattails, and unlike Justice, Manchin was a Democrat his entire life, if he dies an Arlen Specter esque party switch, then he obviously does better

[Lechasseur]

Yeah I think so

[DaWN]

No. The national environment in November 2018 was infinitely better than in November 2016. In a Republican leaning year like 2016 was, Manchin would have lost. He was saved by a combination of his unique appeal, his crap opponent and the Dem wave.

[Progressive Pessimist]

No. The national environment in November 2018 was infinitely better than in November 2016. In a Republican leaning year like 2016 was, Manchin would have lost. He was saved by a combination of his unique appeal, his crap opponent and the Dem wave.

[here2view]

No. The national environment in November 2018 was infinitely better than in November 2016. In a Republican leaning year like 2016 was, Manchin would have lost. He was saved by a combination of his unique appeal, his crap opponent and the Dem wave.

[SnowLabrador]

No. Manchin would have lost, perhaps badly.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Why would he have done worse?


Look at the 2016 Gubernatorial race, Justice did better than Manchin '18 overall and especially in coal country.

[lfromnj]

To those who believe that its certain that Manchin would have done worse in 2016 I am not sure.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_Senate_election_in_Washington

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_States_Senate_election_in_Washington

Despite the fact the environment was about 8 points better and that Cantwell/Murray are relatively  inoffensive incumbents Cantwell lost grays harbor which was a county that voted for every democrat since FDR until Trump. However Murray won this in 2016 which suggests that many people here were only voting republican for the first time in their lifes. In 2018 they promptly turned around and continued voting R even downballot.

[VPH]

It's worth remembering that Jim Justice won by a decent margin in 2016 as a Democrat. Perhaps Manchin would have been able to do the same. I can't see him being as vocally for Clinton if he was up in 2016.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It's worth remembering that Jim Justice won by a decent margin in 2016 as a Democrat. Perhaps Manchin would have been able to do the same. I can't see him being as vocally for Clinton if he was up in 2016.

I just find it hilarious that 1996 is the last time a Republican won the Gubernatorial race in West Virginia as that was also the last time a Democrat won the Presidential race there

[TDAS04]

Probably, considering Justice’s victory, and considering that even Natalie Tennant almost survived as SOS after that bruising Senate defeat 2 years earlier.

No. The national environment in November 2018 was infinitely better than in November 2016. In a Republican leaning year like 2016 was, Manchin would have lost. He was saved by a combination of his unique appeal, his crap opponent and the Dem wave.

Yes, the national environment.  The environments in the individual states varied, though.

[Continential]

Probably, considering Justice’s victory, and considering that even Natalie Tennant almost survived as SOS after that bruising Senate defeat 2 years earlier.

No. The national environment in November 2018 was infinitely better than in November 2016. In a Republican leaning year like 2016 was, Manchin would have lost. He was saved by a combination of his unique appeal, his crap opponent and the Dem wave.

Remember, her opponent worked for Hillary in the State department before.

Yes, the national environment.  The environments in the individual states varied, though.

[ksd2000]

No. The national environment in November 2018 was infinitely better than in November 2016. In a Republican leaning year like 2016 was, Manchin would have lost. He was saved by a combination of his unique appeal, his crap opponent and the Dem wave.

[UWS]

Morrisey would clearly have done better in 2016 than 2018 as it was the tme Trump won West Virginia by 42 percentage points and also due to Hillary Clinton's controversial comments about coal "We're going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business", which would have fueled Morrisey like it further did for Trump (as he improved Romney's 2012 margin of victory in West Virginia by 15 percentage points).

https://thinkprogress.org/how-anti-coal-bernie-sanders-won-coal-country-ca1a06fa0ec6/#.g5d2lqlhy

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_presidential_election_in_West_Virginia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_West_Virginia

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Morrisey would clearly have done better in 2016 than 2018 as it was the tme Trump won West Virginia by 42 percentage points and also due to Hillary Clinton's controversial comments about coal "We're going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business", which would have fueled Morrisey like it further did for Trump (as he improved Romney's 2012 margin of victory in West Virginia by 15 percentage points).

https://thinkprogress.org/how-anti-coal-bernie-sanders-won-coal-country-ca1a06fa0ec6/#.g5d2lqlhy

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_presidential_election_in_West_Virginia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_West_Virginia

At the same time that Trump won the state by 42 points, Jim Justice won by 7.

Manchin would have done better in 2016.

[RINO Tom]

I think Manchin would do worse in 2020 simply due to more Democrats dying off and more former Democrats continuing to defect, but why exactly do people think the "national environment" would be this huge factor?  The *national environment* in 2018 was voters rejecting Trump in MOST places, but I don't exactly think that is what carried Joe Manchin in WV.

[MT Treasurer]

I think Manchin would do worse in 2020 simply due to more Democrats dying off and more former Democrats continuing to defect, but why exactly do people think the "national environment" would be this huge factor?  The *national environment* in 2018 was voters rejecting Trump in MOST places, but I don't exactly think that is what carried Joe Manchin in WV.

Atlas also thinks that split-ticket voting in presidential years is essentially dead, which is why someone like Steve Bullock wouldn’t even stand a chance if he ran for Senate in 2020. Of course that’s nonsense, but that’s Atlas for you.

Anyway, he almost certainly does better in 2016 for the reasons you mentioned + the fact that Manchin's race was the only nationalized one in 2018.

[UWS]

Morrisey would clearly have done better in 2016 than 2018 as it was the tme Trump won West Virginia by 42 percentage points and also due to Hillary Clinton's controversial comments about coal "We're going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business", which would have fueled Morrisey like it further did for Trump (as he improved Romney's 2012 margin of victory in West Virginia by 15 percentage points).

https://thinkprogress.org/how-anti-coal-bernie-sanders-won-coal-country-ca1a06fa0ec6/#.g5d2lqlhy

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_presidential_election_in_West_Virginia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_West_Virginia

At the same time that Trump won the state by 42 points, Jim Justice won by 7.

Manchin would have done better in 2016.

Only to shift parties the year after.

[MT Treasurer]

Morrisey would clearly have done better in 2016 than 2018 as it was the tme Trump won West Virginia by 42 percentage points and also due to Hillary Clinton's controversial comments about coal "We're going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business", which would have fueled Morrisey like it further did for Trump (as he improved Romney's 2012 margin of victory in West Virginia by 15 percentage points).

https://thinkprogress.org/how-anti-coal-bernie-sanders-won-coal-country-ca1a06fa0ec6/#.g5d2lqlhy

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_presidential_election_in_West_Virginia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_West_Virginia

At the same time that Trump won the state by 42 points, Jim Justice won by 7.

Manchin would have done better in 2016.

Only to shift parties the year after.

Not really relevant, though. He ran and won as a Democrat, not a Republican.