Might These Results Be possible in the 2052-2056-2060 Presidential Elections.
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 19, 2024, 04:08:29 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 100% pro-life no matter what)
  Might These Results Be possible in the 2052-2056-2060 Presidential Elections.
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Might These Results Be possible in the 2052-2056-2060 Presidential Elections.  (Read 1890 times)
PRESIDENT STANTON
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 676
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: March 14, 2019, 08:50:41 AM »
« edited: April 07, 2019, 06:55:25 PM by PRESIDENT STANTON »

Projecting thirty + years into the future, California's population growth has stagnated due to a high tax rate in such cities as San Francisco, mismanagement of natural disasters, drought conditions, rising sea levels, sporadic earthquake episodes has resulted in an acceleration of an exodus of large segments of the population to Arizona, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Texas and Washington State, these particular states have seen an increase in there share of the electoral vote. While Colorado has experienced an increase of population size, this increase has not been as dramatic as other states.
While one West Coast state such as California, sustained huge population losses as a result of extreme weather changes as well as other natural disasters, both Oregon and Washington benefited from dramatic population growth, this was due to less extreme weather conditions and successful efforts to construct defenses against rising sea levels.
The 2052 Presidential election, has once again returned the White House to Republican control, despite the dramatic Democratic landslide four years previously, the Democrat President is unable to implement the progressive agenda he had promised, the Economy went into a deep recession due high tax rates.
Republicans selected, Olivia Harris, 50-year-old woman from Colorado, who was the daughter of two previous President's, and the grand-daughter of yet another President. Harris had not only been WHCoS under a previous President, and was into her second term in the Senate from Colorado.
Once elected, Harris implemented policies regarded as friendly to both small and big businesses alike.
The Climate Change Treaty of 2033, which had been supported by every President since Andrew Mallory, had slowly reversed the extreme weather conditions which had become a feature, sea levels had risen, creating dramatic population reductions in such coastal states Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York. Florida long considered to be one of the many state's, enjoying population growth, had sustained substantial population loss due to the increase of sea levels along it's Atlantic coast, as a result it suffered the loss of 2 electoral votes.
The resurgent economy, ensured that Harris would secure a second term and her reelection in 2056 guaranteed that her party would continue to control both houses of congress.
The Following maps might illustrate how the Republicans again were able to hold a position of dominance through three election cycles.

The 2052 Presidential Election, 317-221

Another possible map, was a Republican landslide, the greatest since 2040, Olivia Harris secured
437 to 101 electoral votes for the incumbent Democrat, President Howard Davenport.
This is the following map of the 2052 election.


The 2056 Presidential Election, 361-177
Note: While President Olivia Harris, did win re-election, it was by a smaller margin than her victory four years previously, this was a distinction she shared with James Madison in 1812, Andrew Jackson in 1832, Woodrow Wilson in 1916, Franklin Roosevelt in 1940 (third term) & 1944 (fourth term).

The 2060 Presidential Election, 408-130
Logged
Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,480


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: March 14, 2019, 10:50:49 AM »

The 2052 map will absolutely look like 2012.
Logged
Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
Enlightened_Centrist 420
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,599


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: March 14, 2019, 11:43:30 AM »

In a word, no.


it's pointless to try and guess what an election 30+ years from now will look like, but these maps look too much like modern maps so unless you expect very little to change between now and 2052, the answer to your headline is probably not.
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,695


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: March 14, 2019, 01:08:48 PM »

The map could also look like this:




It very well much could, 40 years is a very long time for things to change in drastic ways.
Logged
Agonized-Statism
Anarcho-Statism
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,814


Political Matrix
E: -9.10, S: -5.83

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: March 14, 2019, 04:09:28 PM »

Who's Harris the granddaughter of? Someone we know? Assuming she's 17 right now, her grandparent should be at a presidential age. Tongue
Logged
PRESIDENT STANTON
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 676
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: March 14, 2019, 07:18:53 PM »

Probably not an actual person, a fictional individual, the daughter of fictional presidents from an ALT political universe. My creation entirely; have developed numerous characters over a sixty +year period; demographics wouldn't have shifted so dramatically in reference to the above map, would they?
Logged
morgankingsley
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,018
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: March 14, 2019, 10:01:22 PM »

No way Minnesota isn't at least a toss up by t hen
Logged
OBD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,579
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: March 14, 2019, 10:32:23 PM »

Louisiana's population would collapse if California starts losing EVs cuz of sea levels.
Logged
Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,853
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: March 15, 2019, 12:13:08 AM »

Well, Texas with a higher population than California at the 2050 census is very believable. 
No, it isn't. CA could very well be at 80 million in 2050 (and isn't going to see any real harm from climate change.) TX would be lucky to exceed 55 million.
Logged
PRESIDENT STANTON
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 676
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: March 15, 2019, 04:01:27 AM »

Louisiana unlike California has a lesson she would’ve learned from the Hurricane Katrina fiasco in 2005, in my ALT version of the world, natural disasters still will occur, so Louisiana has constructed massive concrete sea levees to combat not only rising sea levels, but also to avoid the aftermath of another Katrina type hurricane aftermath; California is still a mega state but population growth is on the decline in the state due to other factors that reduces the attractiveness of the state for many people, states like Oregon and Washington have gotten there acts together in the wake of the rising sea level problem, New York and New Jersey are playing catch-up in this scenario as is Massachusetts. The Climate Change Treaty which I pointed to in an earlier submission became a factor and all nations are using new technologies and alternative but cleaner fuel sources to adhere to the terms of the treaty. All automobiles are powered by either hydrogen, steam or electrical means. In other words Sci-Fi has become sci-fact in my timeline. If you are wondering why Puerto Rico has not yet obtained statehood, it’s not from lack of effort; countless referendums have resulted in defeat after defeate for statehood proponents.
Logged
LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,166
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: March 20, 2019, 04:38:15 PM »

Absolutely not, because it would mean nothing happened between now and 2052 and in fact you ignore recent trends as well. Even the 2024 could already look vastly different from your maps.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,490
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: April 08, 2019, 01:58:03 AM »

IL will never be an R state
Logged
Grassroots
Grassr00ts
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,741
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 2.09

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: April 08, 2019, 09:26:45 AM »


Yeah ok buddy.
Logged
Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
Enlightened_Centrist 420
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,599


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: April 08, 2019, 10:31:44 AM »



What the robot said is sort of true.

Illinois is not going to vote Republican in this political alignment, because Chicago + the Collar Counties will always outvote downstate Illinois. the only way Illinois votes Republican is in one of the following scenarios:

1). The Republican nominee is winning over 400 electoral votes nationally (very unlikely)
2). Chicago and the Collar Counties start rapidly losing population (also unlikely)
3). There's a realignment and Republicans lose tons of support downstate and gain tons of support in the Collar Counties.
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,695


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: April 08, 2019, 01:05:39 PM »



What the robot said is sort of true.

Illinois is not going to vote Republican in this political alignment, because Chicago + the Collar Counties will always outvote downstate Illinois. the only way Illinois votes Republican is in one of the following scenarios:

1). The Republican nominee is winning over 400 electoral votes nationally (very unlikely)
2). Chicago and the Collar Counties start rapidly losing population (also unlikely)
3). There's a realignment and Republicans lose tons of support downstate and gain tons of support in the Collar Counties.

Number 3 will certainly happen by then , it actually will happen decades earlier than that because the GOP will have to adjust by the mid-late 2020s to win elections.
Logged
S019
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,323
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -1.39

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: April 08, 2019, 09:02:51 PM »

Can people stop with NV


States trending that quickly away from the party, tend to come back gradually,

For instance look at WV, it did not consistently vote R until 2000, and in the 2008 Dem wave was considered Safe R

I see NV going similarly where it toys with being competitive and then goes hard left a la VA and NM


I’m sure VA will vote R for 4 elections in a row, what happened to NOVA
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.083 seconds with 11 queries.