Are there any positive trends for Dems in OH?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Is there a single positive trend in OH that favors Dems? I've read some things about urban/suburban growth in some areas, but nothing about the political implications, if any.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Is there a single positive trend in OH that favors Dems? I've read some things about urban/suburban growth in some areas, but nothing about the political implications, if any.

The Democrats have been salivating over central OH and Hamilton, OH trending D for years because it was expected to make OH more Democratic. This was in the mid to late 2000s even.

The mistake that Democrats make in these discussions is that they think they will gain x voter because Republicans are awful, but they never contemplate the thought of losing y and z voter because of something they support. This contributed to the "surprise" they experienced in PA, OH becoming more Republican not less and Iowa becoming more Republican than Texas.

[morgieb]

Probably growth around Columbus. But other than that......

[lfromnj]

A bit in Columbus and Cincinatti. but Cleveland itself is merely neutral while even the small sized cities such as Erie,Dayton,Youngstown are trending R fast and forgot about rural Ohio. Its incredible how that Obama managed to tie a state house district in 2012 but now it voted for Trump by 40 points.

[Zaybay]

Yeah, its really Columbus and Cincinnati that have the Positive Trends for Dems.

[nclib]

A bit in Columbus and Cincinatti. but Cleveland itself is merely neutral while even the small sized cities such as Erie,Dayton,Youngstown are trending R fast and forgot about rural Ohio. Its incredible how that Obama managed to tie a state house district in 2012 but now it voted for Trump by 40 points.

Where is that district?

In addition to Columbus and Cincinnati, Cleveland's inner suburbs are trending Dem, or at least staying the same.

[S019]

Cincinatti, if they can unpack the OH-1 gerrymander, they could create a Lean/Likely D seat in Hamilton County, also if they could unpack the OH-12 gerrymander, they could draw Lean D and tossup seats in the Columbus suburbs

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Cincinatti, if they can unpack the OH-1 gerrymander, they could create a Lean/Likely D seat in Hamilton County, also if they could unpack the OH-12 gerrymander, they could draw Lean D and tossup seats in the Columbus suburbs

OH 1 is more of a crack than a pack.

[Xeuma]

Cincinnati and Columbus are trending D, but that's cancelled out and then some by the rapid erosion of Democrats' support in rural areas.

Look at Monroe County, situated in the southeast bordering West Virginia. It voted Democratic in every election from 1976 until 2012 when it voted for Romney by 8%. In 2014, it was one of two counties (the other being Athens, home of OU) to vote for Ed FitzGerald over John Kasich. Trump received 71% of the vote.

Look at Lorain County, where I live. It swung 10 points to the right between 2012 and 2016 from Obama with 56% to Trump coming within 131 votes of winning the county. In 2018, Cordray only won the county with 51% to DeWine's 45%.

You can see these trends throughout the entire state. The situation for Ohio Democrats is dire.

[Tekken_Guy]

Northern suburbs of Columbus. OH-12 is swinging heavily to the left. Some Cincinnati suburbs (like Mason) are shifting to the left too, albeit more slowly. A few suburbs in Cleveland as well, but it’s far more WWC heavy than the other two.

[Padfoot]

I feel like I keep hearing about how Democrats are failing in Ohio and how it is no longer a swing state. IMO people who have this opinion are overreacting to the failures of Richard Cordray and Hillary Clinton as candidates.  Clinton clearly mishandled all the Great Lakes in 2016.

I would also make the case that Ohio is (and has been for some time) to the right of the national center.  Comparing presidential vote margins from 1916-2016, Ohio's margin has been more Democratic leaning in only 5 of those 26 elections (1916, 1920, 1964, 1972, and 2004).  Ohio is typically close to the middle but it's always been on the "tilt R" side of things.

As Sherrod Brown proved, Ohio is still very winnable for Democrats and they should compete here at all levels.  However, I'd be surprised if Ohio is the make-or-break state for the presidency in 2020.  I'm expecting we'll be between 2-5 points more Republican than the national popular vote which is where we were in '08, '00, '96, '92, and '88.

[Xeuma]

I feel like I keep hearing about how Democrats are failing in Ohio and how it is no longer a swing state. IMO people who have this opinion are overreacting to the failures of Richard Cordray and Hillary Clinton as candidates.  Clinton clearly mishandled all the Great Lakes in 2016.

I would also make the case that Ohio is (and has been for some time) to the right of the national center.  Comparing presidential vote margins from 1916-2016, Ohio's margin has been more Democratic leaning in only 5 of those 26 elections (1916, 1920, 1964, 1972, and 2004).  Ohio is typically close to the middle but it's always been on the "tilt R" side of things.

As Sherrod Brown proved, Ohio is still very winnable for Democrats and they should compete here at all levels.  However, I'd be surprised if Ohio is the make-or-break state for the presidency in 2020.  I'm expecting we'll be between 2-5 points more Republican than the national popular vote which is where we were in '08, '00, '96, '92, and '88.

Saying Brown proves Ohio is a swing state is only marginally better than claiming the same relationship between Manchin and West Virginia.