UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, The End of May

[Sestak]

Old thread is at capacity.

So, we’re now headed for a third vote on the same deal that failed by overwhelming margins the first two times. After that, who the f[inks] knows? No deal? Second referendum? General Election? Seems to be complete chaos.

[Silent Hunter]

Likely some indicative votes on Wednesday ahead of the EU Council meeting. May herself might end up having to back a second referendum to get an extension.

If she doesn't get one then, revoking A50 would need to be considered in the week we'd have left.

[Former President tack50]

I think the EU claimed that they would only grant extensions in the case of a 2nd referendum or a general election.

At this point, it's all up to the EU.

[Hnv1]

You broke the unspoken convention where threads live on until the next GE!

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

You broke the unspoken convention where threads live on until the next GE!

There's a lot that's broken about UK politics right now.

[Silent Hunter]

I think the EU claimed that they would only grant extensions in the case of a 2nd referendum or a general election.

At this point, it's all up to the EU.

Various people have said various things, mainly that there needs to be a clear purpose for an extension. Some of them don't actually get to make any decision, but their views would carry strong weight. Donald Tusk for example.

[IceAgeComing]

The only people with a say are the 27 members of the European Council; who're the ones who seem to have the toughest view on whether Article 50 should be extended and who really aren't very happy.  The Commission would do it overnight if they could; the Council need a lot of convincing.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Honestly, In my opinion, the unanimous consent requirement that the EU has for stuff relating to this process is stupid, and ought to be something more reasonable like 3/4.

[Zinneke]

You broke the unspoken convention where threads live on until the next GE!

There's a lot that's broken about UK politics right now.

Yes, I do wonder if this also isn't a good tie to actually draft a constitution. Something the UK desperately needs.

[Silent Hunter]

I can't say they'd be too happy about it, but I don't think they'd want to basically kick the UK out at this point. Not when the possibility of them staying in is increasing.

In any rate, if MV3 doesn't work, May is planning indicative votes for the beginning of April.

[Former President tack50]

Honestly, In my opinion, the unanimous consent requirement that the EU has for stuff relating to this process is stupid, and ought to be something more reasonable like 3/4.

To be fair, the EU is often trying to move requirements from unanimous agreement to Qualified Majority Voting (55% of member states representing at least 65% of the EU's population)

However this is the kind of thing that is in the treaties and won't be changed easily.

The main argument used to defend unanimous voting is that otherwise you infringe on the sovereignty of the member states, forcing them to do stuff they don't want, turning the EU into less of a trading bloc and more of a federal superstate.

While I don't agree with this argument, for Brexit this particular argument is particularly stupid.

[jaichind]

Just so I am clear about what is next for Brexit:

It seems May has until 3/25 to get her deal passed by Parliament. If so then Brexit takes place with a short delay based on the deal.  if she does not get the deal passed by the Parliament by 3/25 then there will be a vote 3/25 Parliament with the following possibilities

a) Soft Brexit, delay
b) CON hardliners provoke a General Election which I assume there will be a delay until the General Election
c) Second Referendum, delay
d) Impasse continues and non-deal at h the end of extension

Did I get the various scenarios correct ?

[DaWN]

New national poll from the nation's sole reputable poller

There are no reputable pollers in this country

Labour: 39%
Conservative: 35%
Liberal Democrats: 10%
Scottish National Party: 3%
others: 12%

Wow! A lead of 4 points against the most useless government in history! The election is already won!

[Silent Hunter]

Those of us who remember life before Brexit now that a 4% lead is no guarantee of an election victory.

[Silent Hunter]

That's a bald statement of fact. Remember the 2015 election. After that, no Labour leader can confidently order new furniture for the Downing Street flat ahead of election night.

Brexit didn't change the fact that polls can be wrong.

[Silent Hunter]

You posted a picture of Maggie Thatcher crying at a 4% Labour lead in a hypothetical election that hasn't yet been called.

[parochial boy]

Tbf, I can't even begin to imagine what the Conservatives look like going into any election campaign - who leads? how do they even find a leader who doesn't utterly alienate half the party?

The polls could fly off in any direction within days of one being called

Labour may have its issues, but it seems like a beacon of stability compared to the Tories

[Silent Hunter]

The five frontbenchers who resigned over the second referendum vote suggests that is relative.

In any event, my personal fear - and i've had it since Corbyn became leader - is that if he became PM, he'd be utterly dire at the job, Labour would be back in opposition within five years and Tory austerity would be back with a vengenance. It will take at least ten years to fix the damage done by this government for one thing, so it can't really be a one term government.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

How is any poll that doesn't have TIG (which gets close to 10% in most other polls) remotely reputable?

[DaWN]

wHy iS cOrByN nOt lEaDiNg bY 100000 pErCeNt wE nEeD yVeTtE aS lEaDeR

It is perfectly legitimate to question why the Opposition is not leading a government that is consistently and frequently proving they are incompetent and untrustworthy by more than a few points, but by all means, stick your fingers in your ears and go 'lalalalala corbyn is infallible'.

And yes, Labour would have a solid lead with a non-senile leader. If Corbyn was some great popular unifying leader, there's no way he'd be basically tied at best with the worst government in living history.

[Silent Hunter]

Limehouse Declaration to SDP took two months, BTW.

[brucejoel99]

Just so I am clear about what is next for Brexit:

It seems May has until 3/25 to get her deal passed by Parliament. If so then Brexit takes place with a short delay based on the deal.  if she does not get the deal passed by the Parliament by 3/25 then there will be a vote 3/25 Parliament with the following possibilities

a) Soft Brexit, delay
b) CON hardliners provoke a General Election which I assume there will be a delay until the General Election
c) Second Referendum, delay
d) Impasse continues and non-deal at h the end of extension

Did I get the various scenarios correct ?

Alright, here's the rundown:

May will hold a 3rd meaningful vote on her deal in the House of Commons by Wed, Mar. 20th.

• If it's successful (which is unlikely but not necessarily impossible considering it's possible that May could get the DUP to support the deal, though it'll still depend on how many Brexiteer rebels she can get to vote for the deal with the DUP on board &/or with the threat that they can either vote for May's deal with a short delay or face a long extension & perhaps have no Brexit at all), then May will then go to the EU summit in Brussels on Thu, Mar. 21st & request the short technical extension through Jun. 30th, which she prefers. Domestically, legislation would then be introduced to bring the withdrawal deal into effect with the new Brexit date, Jun. 30th, rather than the would-be-incompatible date that the EU Withdrawal Act previously put on the statute books, Mar. 29th.
• If it's unsuccessful, then May will then go to the EU summit in Brussels on Thu, Mar. 21st & request the much longer extension (which will require the UK to take part in the European parliamentary elections in 10 weeks' time), which EU officials have suggested could last anywhere from 9 months (through Dec. 31st, 2019) to 21 months (through Dec. 31st, 2020). Domestically, legislation would then be introduced to bring Brexit into effect with the new Brexit date, either Dec. 31st, 2019, or Dec. 31st, 2020, rather than the would-be-incompatible date that the EU Withdrawal Act previously put on the statute books, Mar. 29th.

However, if, for whatever reason, the EU (on Thu, Mar. 21st or Fri, Mar. 22nd) denies May's request, whether it be for the short technical extension through Jun. 30th (in the event that May's deal passes this week) or the much longer extension (in the event that May's deal doesn't pass this week), then (presuming there's no revocation of Article 50 in the event that May's deal had been passed, or MP's finally agreeing to May's deal in the event that it hadn't) the default outcome will still be that there will be a no-deal Brexit on Mar. 29th.

In the event of the much longer extension, May is expected to propose a renegotiation of a completely new Brexit deal, likely after the Commons has had a chance to find a consensus & express its view about alternative deals through indicative votes that would be held in the 2 weeks following the EU summit, by about Apr. 4th or 5th.

• If the EU renegotiates, there would then be a complete renegotiation that would take some time. In this renegotiation, May could abandon her red lines & pivot towards one of the other models of deal that has been suggested, perhaps the Norway model or something close to it for a soft Brexit, or whatever Parliament had proposed through its indicative votes.
• If the EU refuses to re-enter negotiations, then a no-deal Brexit at the expiration of the extension, on either Dec. 31st, 2019, or Dec. 31st, 2020, will still be the default outcome. However, May could (& likely would) have consider one of the other options instead, such as holding another referendum or calling an early general election in the hopes of getting a political mandate for her deal. A major event such as a further referendum or change of government could result in a revocation of Article 50 & cancellation of Brexit via Act of Parliament, though this is an option that's unlikely at the moment considering May is still committed to Brexit.

Things to also keep in mind:

• Labour could table another motion of no confidence in the government at any time. If the vote of no confidence is successful & May or any other alternative government couldn't win a new vote of confidence, then an early general election would be called.
• May will once again be eligible for a challenge to her leadership via an internal vote of no confidence from Conservative MP's on Dec. 12th, 2019. At that point, if she were to lose, a Conservative leadership campaign would be triggered which would then result in the appointment of a new PM.
• May could also resign if MPs ever pass a censure motion against her.

[Silent Hunter]

Another note - the change of date legislation would just be a Statutory Instrument instead of a full Act of Parliament. The former only requires a single vote each in the Commons and the Lords.

[Tirnam]

If the deal is rejected in the 3rd meaningful vote and the EU refuses UK's request for a long extension can May put the deal to the vote for a 4th time before March, 29? And if it's the case will Labour vote for the deal in order to prevent an imminent no-deal Brexit?

[Silent Hunter]

If the deal got rejected a third time, then I don't see a short extension happening - or even a No Deal. It would be a long one.