UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, The End of May

[Silent Hunter]

if anything, they've hardened their stance.

[CumbrianLefty]

Looks like it is being brought back for a third time nonetheless.

Likely on Friday, the day we were meant to exit the EU.

[Silent Hunter]

Which would be the last day under the current A50 extension for the WA to be approved for a 22 May exit.

[jaichind]

Does this not just come down to how many pro-Brexit LAB MPs and/or LAB MPs that represent pro-Brexit district will defect over and vote for the May plan?  My impression is that while there are a bloc of pro-Brexit LAB voters this topic if not what is important to them which means I think the number of LAB MPs that might defect could be quite small.

[YL]

Does this not just come down to how many pro-Brexit LAB MPs and/or LAB MPs that represent pro-Brexit district will defect over and vote for the May plan?  My impression is that while there are a bloc of pro-Brexit LAB voters this topic if not what is important to them which means I think the number of LAB MPs that might defect could be quite small.

No, the first question concerns the DUP.  If they stay against (which is the indication so far) I don't think it can get the votes.  If they vote for, then it might come down to how many Labour MPs are prepared to vote for it but the number of Tory die-hards (the name Chope comes to mind) who still won't is also relevant.

[CumbrianLefty]

Does this not just come down to how many pro-Brexit LAB MPs and/or LAB MPs that represent pro-Brexit district will defect over and vote for the May plan?  My impression is that while there are a bloc of pro-Brexit LAB voters this topic if not what is important to them which means I think the number of LAB MPs that might defect could be quite small.

We keep being told that a load of such MPs will arrive over the hill and save May's deal.

It never happens, though.

The only chance of it occurring would be if it really *was* a straight choice between her deal and no deal. However that is still not the case.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The issue there is that she is extremely partisan and has never bothered to negotiate or compromise with anyone outside her party, other than the DUP. Which makes it rather difficult to start now.

[jaichind]

Bercow selected eight motions on different Brexit models for debate

B – calling for a no-deal Brexit on April 12.
D – Norway Plus: calling for the U.K. to stay in the European Economic Area and rejoin the European Free Trade Association, while also adding a “comprehensive customs arrangement”
H – The same as D, but without the customs arrangement
J – Calling for the U.K. to stay in a permanent customs union with the EU
K – Labour’s proposal for a withdrawal agreement plus a customs union and close alignment to the single market
L -- Calling for a confirmatory vote in Parliament if the U.K. gets to within 2 days of a no-deal Brexit
M -- Saying no withdrawal deal should be agreed unless first approved by the public in second referendum
O – calling for a standstill agreement with EU while a broader trade agreement negotiated

[Silent Hunter]

The issue there is that she is extremely partisan and has never bothered to negotiate or compromise with anyone outside her party, other than the DUP. Which makes it rather difficult to start now.

This is true. This is also something not unique to her.

[jaichind]

May Said to Say She Will Step Down Once Brexit Delivered

[parochial boy]

but the number of Tory die-hards (the name Chope comes to mind) who still won't is also relevant.

Presumably he could be convinced to support it with an amendment legalising rape?

[Sestak]

May Said to Say She Will Step Down Once Brexit Delivered

This was likely to happen anyway - the rest of the power-hungry Tories were going to pounce on her as soon as she'd finished soaking up all the blame for the Brexit aftermath.

[tallguy23]

Who is likely to replace May as PM?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Who is likely to replace May as PM?

A swine.

[Pericles]

Looks like the ERG is coming around to her deal, Boris is now backing it as is IDS. However it seems there are still around 30 Tory defections. Without the DUP, lets' say May's deal has 25 Tory defections, and gets 15 Labour defections and 5 other defections, that gets it to 307(based on 2 Tories being tellers so abstaining). Speaker and Deputy Speaker, minus Sinn Fein, minus the vacant seat, and minus the 4 tellers makes it 329 votes against her deal. So she needs to either get the DUP around or hope the rest of the Tories end up buckling too out of fear of losing Brexit (if the indicative votes show a majority for a softer Brexit or second referendum this could help her in that area, though it's possible she'd lose votes elsewhere).

[brucejoel99]

Who is likely to replace May as PM?

Whomever a majority of participating Conservative Party members choose to cast their votes for...

In all seriousness, gun to my head, Gove or Johnson are probably (as of right now) the most likely potential candidates to succeed May (in the event that her deal actually gets passed & she does indeed stand down), though that could change on a moment's notice; really, anything can happen.

[Blair]

Who is likely to replace May as PM?

Whomever a majority of participating Conservative Party members choose to cast their votes for...

In all seriousness, gun to my head, Gove or Johnson are probably (as of right now) the most likely potential candidates to succeed May (in the event that her deal actually gets passed & she does indeed stand down), though that could change on a moment's notice; really, anything can happen.

FWIW; it's unlikely to be Johnson, because MPs won't let him get to the members. Only two candidates actually go to the members- they have a run-off among MPs first. This tends to be a vicious, and hilarious mode of electing MPs- and it means that candidates who are very unpopular tend to get blocked. See Portillo in 2001, Howard in 1997, and Johnson/Gove in 2016.

There's a large chunk of both remainers and leavers who will support someone they don't want as leader purely to stop Johnson. Of course, who actually knows what could happen if we have 10+ people running

 

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

May Said to Say She Will Step Down Once Brexit Delivered

This was likely to happen anyway - the rest of the power-hungry Tories were going to pounce on her as soon as she'd finished soaking up all the blame for the Brexit aftermath.

Posterity will ne'er survey,
A nobler grave than this.
Here lie the bones of Theresa May,
Stop, traveller, and piss.

[CumbrianLefty]

May Said to Say She Will Step Down Once Brexit Delivered

Her actual form of words was apparently vaguer than some of the initial reports suggested.

Shocking given May's previous record, I know.......

[Pericles]

Perhaps the best case scenario for May is if a second referendum comes really close to passing and does better than the other soft Brexit options. Since a second referendum is the scariest threat for Tory Brexiters and gettable Labour MPs, while if just a softer Brexit is the alternative to her deal she could lose some soft Brexit Tories and fail to win over Labour MPs who get to support their preferred Brexit while arguably honoring the referendum result. However if the indicative votes are a total debacle and no alternative seems to stand a chance that could be bad for May and encourage the Brexiters to hold out for no deal rather than buckling and backing her deal.

[YL]

The DUP say No.

(It is, after all, their favourite word.)

[jaichind]

DUP will still oppose May's deal

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

The DUP say No.

(It is, after all, their favourite word.)

In Polish "DUP" is only one letter short of "dupa" (ass).

[parochial boy]

Out of curiosity, why does the House of Commons seem to do all its voting so late in the evening?

[Pericles]

Results coming in two minutes.