UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, The End of May

[Middle-aged Europe]

May has requested a delay until June 30:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/20/theresa-may-asks-eu-for-brexit-delay-until-30-june

The EU's response will now be: To do what?

[DaWN]

Macron will veto any delay.

If you can't laugh, you'll just cry.

[Joe Republic]

France’s minister for European affairs says she has named her cat “Brexit” on account of its indecisive nature.

Nathalie Loiseau told Le Journal du Dimanche that her pet meows loudly to be let out each morning, but then refuses to go outside when she opens the door.

[Tirnam]

French Foreign Minister: If May cannot offer guarantees her Brexit deal will be passed in British Parliament the European Council will turn down her extension request

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Here come dat general election.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Donald Tusk says he's willing to grant a "short" Article 50 extension, provided that the House of Commons passes the Brexit deal next week.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Tusk's full statement:

In the light of the consultations that I have conducted over the past days, I believe that a short extension would be possible.

But it would be conditional on a positive vote on the withdrawal agreement in the House of Commons.

The question remains open as to the duration of such an extension.

At this time, I do not foresee an extraordinary European council.

If the leaders approve my recommendations and there is a positive vote in the House of Commons next week, we can finalise and formalise the decision on extension in the written procedure.

However, if there is such a need, I will not hesitate to invite the members of the European council for a meeting to Brussels next week.

Although Brexit fatigue is increasingly visible and justified, we cannot give up seeking until the very last moment a positive solution - of course, without opening up the withdrawal agreement.

We have reacted with patience and goodwill to numerous turns of events and I am confident that also now we will not lack the same patience and goodwill at this most critical point in this process.

[Sestak]

Well, then that’s it. No deal, unless maybe if May offers a referendum/general.

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, what happens now???


John Bercow: Mhm, I was just kidding, of course we can hold another vote on the deal!!

Jeremy Corbyn: Alright, since we are left with no other options now we'll vote for the damn deal.... but this is entirely Theresa May's fault and we'll only pass the Brexit deal if she calls a general election and steps down!!


?

[jaichind]

I assume there is no majority for revoking Article 50 ?

[Middle-aged Europe]

I assume there is no majority for revoking Article 50 ?

Nobody can't know for sure what someone votes for or not with the back against a wall.

The EU effectively says that they must either accept the Brexit deal or face a no-deal Brexit. The Speaker of the House of Commons says that this deal was already rejected and that you can't vote on the same deal twice. So, the fate of the United Kingdom depends entirely on Bercow's whims. Question is what happens if he continues to block another vote on the deal? Does May offer the EU a second referendum and will the EU accept such a proposal?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So, what happens now???

No one has a clue. Though I'll quickly note - and this is just something to bear in mind, not a prediction of any sort - that parliamentary procedure is actually very flexible.

[Silent Hunter]

To wit, if there's a majority for the deal, there is a majority to change the rules.

The next Commons vote on the whole matter is on Monday.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1108415859918336000

[DaWN]

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1108415859918336000

Spoiler: She can't

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1108415859918336000

Spoiler: She can't

Is that totally true ?  If confronted with a no deal Brexit on 3/29 would not some pro-Remain MPs might fold and vote for May's deal? 

[Blair]

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1108415859918336000

Spoiler: She can't

Is that totally true ?  If confronted with a no deal Brexit on 3/29 would not some pro-Remain MPs might fold and vote for May's deal? 

Some may but enough have been burnt very badly (whether they’re Tories like Grieve, or Labour MPs in leave seats like Nandy) Theresa May has pissed off every wing on Parliament, and has a history of breaking, and betraying promises.

[Middle-aged Europe]

'kay, it's probably gonna be a no-deal Brexit:


https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1108448464462114818


https://twitter.com/ClaireEllicott1/status/1108448558582251523

[Omega21]

I assume there is no majority for revoking Article 50 ?

Nobody can't know for sure what someone votes for or not with the back against a wall.

The EU effectively says that they must either accept the Brexit deal or face a no-deal Brexit. The Speaker of the House of Commons says that this deal was already rejected and that you can't vote on the same deal twice. So, the fate of the United Kingdom depends entirely on Bercow's whims. Question is what happens if he continues to block another vote on the deal? Does May offer the EU a second referendum and will the EU accept such a proposal?

Didn't they already vote 2 times on the same deal, or was it "changed" in between votes?

[parochial boy]

If it is true that the ouctome of said meeting was that May refused to consider any alternatives to her deal then it looks like it is either No Deal or somehow May gets forced out in the next week...

[jaichind]

If it is true that the ouctome of said meeting was that May refused to consider any alternatives to her deal then it looks like it is either No Deal or somehow May gets forced out in the next week...

Why would May being forced out have any real meaning?  That does not change the 3/29 deadline and the EU position that the deal has to be passed by 3/29 for an extension to be granted.  The EU is saying nothing about an extension if May is kicked out, or not that I am aware.

[parochial boy]

If it is true that the ouctome of said meeting was that May refused to consider any alternatives to her deal then it looks like it is either No Deal or somehow May gets forced out in the next week...

Why would May being forced out have any real meaning?  That does not change the 3/29 deadline and the EU position that the deal has to be passed by 3/29 for an extension to be granted.  The EU is saying nothing about an extension if May is kicked out, or not that I am aware.

Principally, I think because with May in charge it is either her deal or No Deal, which means No Deal. So, regardless of the likelihood, May no longer being PM is a necessary condition for the chain of events that would lead to any outcome that isn't No Deal.

Think of it this way, the EU have said "either you pass the deal or there is no extension" - that is perfect for the ERG types who now have exactly no incentive to vote for the deal

[DaWN]

'kay, it's probably gonna be a no-deal Brexit:


https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1108448464462114818


https://twitter.com/ClaireEllicott1/status/1108448558582251523

What a petty spiteful old fool

[Tintrlvr]

If it is true that the ouctome of said meeting was that May refused to consider any alternatives to her deal then it looks like it is either No Deal or somehow May gets forced out in the next week...

Why would May being forced out have any real meaning?  That does not change the 3/29 deadline and the EU position that the deal has to be passed by 3/29 for an extension to be granted.  The EU is saying nothing about an extension if May is kicked out, or not that I am aware.

Principally, I think because with May in charge it is either her deal or No Deal, which means No Deal. So, regardless of the likelihood, May no longer being PM is a necessary condition for the chain of events that would lead to any outcome that isn't No Deal.

Think of it this way, the EU have said "either you pass the deal or there is no extension" - that is perfect for the ERG types who now have exactly no incentive to vote for the deal

She can still revoke Article 50 entirely without the rest of the EU consenting.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If it is true that the ouctome of said meeting was that May refused to consider any alternatives to her deal then it looks like it is either No Deal or somehow May gets forced out in the next week...

Why would May being forced out have any real meaning?  That does not change the 3/29 deadline and the EU position that the deal has to be passed by 3/29 for an extension to be granted.  The EU is saying nothing about an extension if May is kicked out, or not that I am aware.

Principally, I think because with May in charge it is either her deal or No Deal, which means No Deal. So, regardless of the likelihood, May no longer being PM is a necessary condition for the chain of events that would lead to any outcome that isn't No Deal.

Think of it this way, the EU have said "either you pass the deal or there is no extension" - that is perfect for the ERG types who now have exactly no incentive to vote for the deal

She can still revoke Article 50 entirely without the rest of the EU consenting.

And reinvoke it to get a 2 year extension. But she probably wants an extension of less than 2 years.