UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, The End of May
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  UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, The End of May
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Author Topic: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, The End of May  (Read 64301 times)
Sestak
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« Reply #525 on: May 11, 2019, 06:46:38 PM »


Coalition of chaos?
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #526 on: May 11, 2019, 06:48:56 PM »




Quote
Britain faces a simple and inescapable choice - stability and strong Government with me, or chaos with Ed Miliband

- David Cameron, May 3, 2015
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Zaybay
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« Reply #527 on: May 11, 2019, 06:51:16 PM »

This is the first poll with the Conservatives not being in either 1st or 2nd place



No there were a few polls where they were third in the early 80s (when the SDP were surging) and in 1993 at the height of the Major government's unpopularity. I don't think they've ever dropped as low as 19% though. The Tory+Labour share at 46% is the lowest I can find (previous low was 46.5% in a MORI poll in December 1981).

I mean for the current cycle.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #528 on: May 12, 2019, 04:06:20 AM »

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48235917

"Theresa May could set her exit date this week"
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #529 on: May 12, 2019, 06:16:33 AM »


Considering that Labour would certainly be the largest party and most probably be close to a majority in that situation; and that you'd have a million Lib Dem and SNP MPs who'd certainly not back a Conservative government at this time: I doubt that'd work out for them.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #530 on: May 12, 2019, 07:03:32 AM »

Do those polls assume Brexit Party run a candidate in every constituency though?
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #531 on: May 12, 2019, 08:02:24 AM »

Do those polls assume Brexit Party run a candidate in every constituency though?

They’d probably manage it if those poll numbers stuck. UKIP ran candidates everywhere in 2015 at their (lower) zenith (with a few random exceptions).
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Zinneke
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« Reply #532 on: May 12, 2019, 11:49:47 AM »

Do those polls assume Brexit Party run a candidate in every constituency though?

They’d probably manage it if those poll numbers stuck. UKIP ran candidates everywhere in 2015 at their (lower) zenith (with a few random exceptions).

I thought before though Farage specifically allowed pro-Brexit Tories a free run at their constituency. I imagine he would do the same with some ERG elders (particularly the likes of Johnson who could lose his seat if BXP run there)
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jaichind
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« Reply #533 on: May 12, 2019, 11:53:21 AM »
« Edited: May 12, 2019, 04:53:10 PM by jaichind »


I thought before though Farage specifically allowed pro-Brexit Tories a free run at their constituency. I imagine he would do the same with some ERG elders (particularly the likes of Johnson who could lose his seat if BXP run there)

That is what I would figure as well.  On the other hand killing of the pro-Brexit leadership in the CON could help Brexit Party in its quest for party realignment with Brexit Party being one and only party that represents Brexit.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #534 on: May 12, 2019, 02:38:29 PM »
« Edited: May 12, 2019, 02:44:24 PM by Tintrlvr »

Do those polls assume Brexit Party run a candidate in every constituency though?

They’d probably manage it if those poll numbers stuck. UKIP ran candidates everywhere in 2015 at their (lower) zenith (with a few random exceptions).

I thought before though Farage specifically allowed pro-Brexit Tories a free run at their constituency. I imagine he would do the same with some ERG elders (particularly the likes of Johnson who could lose his seat if BXP run there)

That was in 2017 when UKIP was widely viewed as irrelevant and not running candidates everywhere was mostly a face-saving measure. (Even then, they did run against Boris Johnson.) In 2015 they ran against (almost) all Tories.

Edit: Also, Farage was not the leader of UKIP in 2017.
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rc18
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« Reply #535 on: May 12, 2019, 04:45:42 PM »

Do those polls assume Brexit Party run a candidate in every constituency though?

They’d probably manage it if those poll numbers stuck. UKIP ran candidates everywhere in 2015 at their (lower) zenith (with a few random exceptions).

I thought before though Farage specifically allowed pro-Brexit Tories a free run at their constituency. I imagine he would do the same with some ERG elders (particularly the likes of Johnson who could lose his seat if BXP run there)

He has said they intend to stand in all 650 constituencies, they'd likely have the funds. Whether saying that is just designed to provoke the Brexiteer Tories into challenging May and supporting No Deal we'll see. He'd probably still prefer to pressure the Tories into leaving before any general election than having to contest them.

If it came to it I doubt many Tory MPs would be spared. After voting for the WA and rumours of potential leadership deals with Rudd, Boris wouldn't be one of them.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #536 on: May 12, 2019, 04:52:24 PM »

From what I heard, the tories are basically ignoring the EU election campaign. There is too little at stake, and too many of their loyal voters are just voting Brexit to send a message to London/Brussels. Ignoring the election allows them to save face when the eventual loss occurs, and in their minds, their voters will just return when the country eventually leaves.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #537 on: May 12, 2019, 06:14:59 PM »

From what I heard, the tories are basically ignoring the EU election campaign. There is too little at stake, and too many of their loyal voters are just voting Brexit to send a message to London/Brussels. Ignoring the election allows them to save face when the eventual loss occurs, and in their minds, their voters will just return when the country eventually leaves.

That last bit is extremely complacent, if true.

The idea they will just be allowed to laugh off a comedy result is a bit far fetched also.
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Sestak
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« Reply #538 on: May 12, 2019, 06:47:03 PM »

Yeah please. If the governing party ends up in like third or fourth place in the Euro elections it's not something they can just choose to ignore.
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jfern
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« Reply #539 on: May 12, 2019, 11:26:56 PM »

From what I heard, the tories are basically ignoring the EU election campaign. There is too little at stake, and too many of their loyal voters are just voting Brexit to send a message to London/Brussels. Ignoring the election allows them to save face when the eventual loss occurs, and in their minds, their voters will just return when the country eventually leaves.

I wonder if they almost want to be crushed by the Brexit party so that they can push harder for Brexit.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #540 on: May 13, 2019, 12:41:07 AM »

From what I heard, the tories are basically ignoring the EU election campaign. There is too little at stake, and too many of their loyal voters are just voting Brexit to send a message to London/Brussels. Ignoring the election allows them to save face when the eventual loss occurs, and in their minds, their voters will just return when the country eventually leaves.

I wonder if they almost want to be crushed by the Brexit party so that they can push harder for Brexit.

There was certainly some tories on the BBC locals stream that I watched making the argument that their couple hundred losses (at the time) were necessary sacrifices to tell May and the frontbench to get on with it.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #541 on: May 13, 2019, 06:43:39 AM »

From what I heard, the tories are basically ignoring the EU election campaign. There is too little at stake, and too many of their loyal voters are just voting Brexit to send a message to London/Brussels. Ignoring the election allows them to save face when the eventual loss occurs, and in their minds, their voters will just return when the country eventually leaves.

That last bit is extremely complacent, if true.

The idea they will just be allowed to laugh off a comedy result is a bit far fetched also.

I am sympathetic to the argument that there isn’t much they could do to prevent a comedy result, though.

Trendlines are suggesting the Tories will end up in single digits...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #542 on: May 13, 2019, 06:52:03 AM »

It's a comedy free-hit election not taken remotely seriously by anyone in which the Tories have basically (without exactly intending to) signalled to their base that it's fine to vote for another party or not to vote at all, just this once. The message from Labour hasn't been quite that, but it's been so sotto voce that a lot of the Labour base will also read it as 'don't bother this time'.

The potential for a completely absurd embarrassment for both, then, definitely exists... but it isn't clear whether that would mean much. It's possible it would only do so if it triggered further internal ructions in either party.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #543 on: May 13, 2019, 06:54:35 AM »

Yeah please. If the governing party ends up in like third or fourth place in the Euro elections it's not something they can just choose to ignore.

Well, they came third in 2014 and won a majority at the General Election the next year. Labour came an extremely embarrassing third (on just 15%) in 2009 and while they lost the General Election the next year, they polled 30% nationally. These elections will only be consequential if actors decide that they are consequential. Which they might. We don't know yet. But absent that they're meaningless.
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vileplume
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« Reply #544 on: May 13, 2019, 07:58:56 AM »

From what I heard, the tories are basically ignoring the EU election campaign. There is too little at stake, and too many of their loyal voters are just voting Brexit to send a message to London/Brussels. Ignoring the election allows them to save face when the eventual loss occurs, and in their minds, their voters will just return when the country eventually leaves.

I wonder if they almost want to be crushed by the Brexit party so that they can push harder for Brexit.

I think the Tories are already well aware that pushing for a harder Brexit would benefit them politically, and if they were really eager to follow through with that, we would have left in March. As the 2017 election showed, Brexit is the only selling point for the Tories - as soon as Corbyn shifted the debate to other issues, their campaign crumbled. So, now that the Tories have failed on Brexit, they have plummeted in the polls. Potentially a future Brexiteer Tory leader might take that view, however.

The Tory campaign was a complete car crash too, this being more important than Corbyn running a good Labour campaign as 'oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them'. The 'dementia tax' alone probably cost them their majority.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #545 on: May 13, 2019, 12:24:48 PM »

The Tory campaign was a complete car crash too, this being more important than Corbyn running a good Labour campaign as 'oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them'. The 'dementia tax' alone probably cost them their majority.

To say nothing of the bad impression left by then hastily dropping it; striking a major policy from your manifesto out of sudden panic is not a great move if you're aiming for the softcore strong(wo)man vibe...
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jfern
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« Reply #546 on: May 13, 2019, 10:14:26 PM »

From what I heard, the tories are basically ignoring the EU election campaign. There is too little at stake, and too many of their loyal voters are just voting Brexit to send a message to London/Brussels. Ignoring the election allows them to save face when the eventual loss occurs, and in their minds, their voters will just return when the country eventually leaves.

I wonder if they almost want to be crushed by the Brexit party so that they can push harder for Brexit.

There was certainly some tories on the BBC locals stream that I watched making the argument that their couple hundred losses (at the time) were necessary sacrifices to tell May and the frontbench to get on with it.

The whole UK has only 73 seats in the EU election. I don't think the Conservatives want to get their butts kicked in the UK parliament, but might be fine with getting destroyed in the EU election.
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« Reply #547 on: May 14, 2019, 06:33:40 PM »

That poll with Labor at 330 total seats. That would be a majority. I hope that comes true in 2022.
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Lumine
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« Reply #548 on: May 16, 2019, 09:14:19 AM »

May and the 1922 Committee met today. She won a stay of execution until the first week of June (at which point the EU withdrawal agreement bill is to be voted in May's final gamble), after which she is to meet with Graham Brady and "set the timetable for her departure".

I can't see how on earth the withdrawal bill will pass (Conservative resistance is hardening, Labour-Government talks seem to be going nowhere), so it seems she might finally (finally!) go after losing that vote.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #549 on: May 16, 2019, 05:08:43 PM »

May and the 1922 Committee met today. She won a stay of execution until the first week of June (at which point the EU withdrawal agreement bill is to be voted in May's final gamble), after which she is to meet with Graham Brady and "set the timetable for her departure".

I can't see how on earth the withdrawal bill will pass (Conservative resistance is hardening, Labour-Government talks seem to be going nowhere), so it seems she might finally (finally!) go after losing that vote.

If May goes, does that mean that a snap election will occur?
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