UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, The End of May

[YL]

I mean French politicians are not so mind-numbingly stupid as to call a referendum on leaving the EU (and that's saying something, because French politicians are pretty damn stupid). It's not my fault you elected a craven pigf**ker who took a risky bet to unify his party without a care for the potential consequences.

If we somehow had a referendum and people voted to leave (which would still be unlikely because another thing France doesn't have is a massive Murdoch-based propaganda empire spreading lies and nonsense), then I'd want the people's will to be respected, yes. Even more so if traditional leftist strongholds like the Northern mining basin or the Southwest were among the strongest Leave regions.

I'm sorry, but I don't believe you, not in the sense that I think you're lying, but I just don't think you realise how you'd feel about this if it were your country doing it.

(Admittedly, this is complicated in my case by the fact that I have connections to Ireland, and that Leavers and those who want to go along with them consistently ignore the issues there.)

[parochial boy]

This might be aa bit rambling, and rehash of what others have said already, but I've got a couple of points.

One is that Labour party is supposed to be about things like addressing inequality, solidarity, internationalism, standing up for people who are vulnerable. As we know that Brexit is an attack on all those things, how can it jusitifiably support it while even staying truw to the values of the left?

The other is that I don't think it is helpful to romanticise the leave vote of the "post-industrual working class". For a start, most of them don't actually care that much; Farage may have romped it in Barnsley or wherever - but factor in turnout and only about a third of the people who even voted leave actually turned out to vote for his party.

But on top of that, the structure of the economy has changed so much. Thanks to the decline of the old working class jobs of people working their whole lives on the same factory floors and devloping sense of solidarity through work; that class has basically already gone - and yet, new forms of poverty and insecurity and inequality exist. All of which broadly means Labour's social relevance in those areas was always going to decline, and they were always going to trend to the right; Brexit or no Brexit.

Like, Labour's success in 2017 was so much based on young people, and, I guess this is important, young people in deprived areas (both the "old coal minimg areas" and in say, extremely deprived part of Enfield in London) who work in call centres, or warehouses or whatever (in many ways, I suspect some of the huge swings towards Labour a lot of deprived, service sector based towns on the South Coast in 2017 might reflect this). And these people either didn't vote in the EU referendum; or voted massively against it; and Labour should still be about representing their interests as well.

As a lot of polling has suggested, Brexit was far more down to Tory voters than Labour ones - even before any subsequent "realignment". And because of the huge age factor, you can't help but notice the fact that many of the people living the most insecure lives would have not voted for Brexit (I vaguely remember Gully Foyle's point that, thanks to the structure of home ownership in the UK, the average Brexit voter was almost certainly wealthier than the average remain one).

So in that respect, if Labour sign up to Brexit what happens? Does it win back a few "traditional" working class, at the expense of younger, equally deprived people? Maybe, but in the long run it makes both groups worse off.

And does it win over the lower-middle class homweowner in Lincolnshire who already voted Tory? Well, no....

[DaWN]

I think people are really overthinking this. Yes, there are a lot of complex political factors at play, but it boils down to the fact Jeremy Corbyn has the political skills and intelligence of a dustbin. All he (or rather Seamus Milne etc.) sees is the great EU Capitalist Conspiracy getting in the way of his socialist utopia. There is no master plan for creating a winning coalition for Labour, just a plan to meekly give in to Brexit because it'll get rid of those pesky Brussels capitalists. Stop giving him any more credit than that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If we break areas with large Labour votes into three rough categories - those that voted strongly Remain, those that voted Leave, those with large minority populations - and have a look at what happened in the European elections, then one thing becomes clear immediately. And that is that turnout was extremely poor in the latter two categories, but relatively 'good' (still bad, still low, but high for a mickey mouse election) in the former.

What does this tell us? While we have to always be a little careful, I would suggest it is another indicator that the European issue is only important to a large number of Labour voters in one of these categories, and that Labour is probably only vulnerable to losing large numbers of voters over this issue in that category, not the others.*

The trouble for Labour, though, is that it may already be too late to do much about that. How much credibility on this issue does Labour now have with that section of its electorate? Very, very little. So little, in fact, that it isn't clear if any policy movement would now convince anyone. Interestingly, the problem has been the tone adopted as much as the line: it has been very shrill, very arrogant and has got a lot of people's backs up.

The European issue is a tricky one for Labour, but it fairly clearly isn't the main reason for its poor polling ratings and poor recent electoral performances. Even the disastrous showing in the European Elections had more to do with a series of bizarre strategic blunders (it isn't a good sign that no one has walked for that, incidentally) that removed any pressure on the usual low turnout Labour electorate to bother to show up or to stay loyal if it did than with its positioning as such.

_{*Of course this would not be the case if it were to embrace the Culture War aspects of the new British Pro-Europeanism, but that won't happen - as stupid as senior Labour figures of whatever faction or era often are, they aren't that stupid.}

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'll also note quickly, because this is often missed, that a lot of the public dissatisfaction with the two big parties on this issue stems from irritation that they have not 'solved' it yet. This isn't the most coherent of sentiments, but it is widespread.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'll also note quickly, because this is often missed, that a lot of the public dissatisfaction with the two big parties on this issue stems from irritation that they have not 'solved' it yet. This isn't the most coherent of sentiments, but it is widespread.

yes - which is one of the reasons "No Deal" polls high; people seem to be under the impression that we will leave and that will be the whole affair over with.

[Blair]

It’s also worth noting that thanks to Farage, Theresa May and the ludicrous promises of the Leave Campaign any Brexit deal will be seen as a betrayal and a failure; and I’m still convinced that Labours social liberalism, Corbyns history and the generic malaise is actually a lot more harmful than its lack of support for Brexit.

If you want Labour to become a lexit, socially conservative, small town based party then you’re going to need 230 new MPs, 200 new lords, 450,000 new members, 6 million+ new voters and the whitewashing of 50 years of history.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think people are really overthinking this. Yes, there are a lot of complex political factors at play, but it boils down to the fact Jeremy Corbyn has the political skills and intelligence of a dustbin. All he (or rather Seamus Milne etc.) sees is the great EU Capitalist Conspiracy getting in the way of his socialist utopia. There is no master plan for creating a winning coalition for Labour, just a plan to meekly give in to Brexit because it'll get rid of those pesky Brussels capitalists. Stop giving him any more credit than that.

Well you aren't guilty of "overthinking" it, that's for sure

(the use of Milne as some sort of omnipotent bogeyman is invariably such a "tell")

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Jesse Norman is running. What, the great American Wagnerian soprano? But I thought her name had a 'y' in it? Indeed, for Jesse Norman is male and the Member for Hereford.

[Blair]

Whilst JC's eurosceptism is obvious, it's always been rather theoretical than practical. It's like how Skinner and co on the left voted against the deal, simply because it damaged the Tories, and helped Labour.

Sure they know that state aid rules could make some of the policies difficult (it's a debate that 99% of Westminster, including myself, isn't smart enough to fully understand) but equally they know that it's irrelevant if they don't have 340+ MPs in the next parliament. Corbyn has clearly been willing to throw his views out the window for powers sake- opposition to police cuts, opposition to freedom of movement, support for the EU membership etc.

[Suburbia]

Is Cleverly liked by the white base of the Conservative Party?

I posted a similar question and it was deleted here.

Do black Britons like Cleverly, if he becomes prime minister?

Since most leftwing political parties use minority voters, this would be a big break for the Tories.

[bigic]

https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1134151393764360192

Big if true

A previous poll had the Lib Dems only 4 points from the first place
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1133067311143899136

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-may-back-brexit-in-second-referendum-campaign-says-shami-chakrabarti_uk_5cef8813e4b00cfa19662138?

[Hindsight was 2020]

I don’t understand with all the horror that Brexit has caused and is excepted to cause that a second vote/remain position is as equally toxic. British politics is f**ked man

[Blair]

We had these Lib Dem numbers in 2010- and we had the alliance at 50% in 1981- a time when both leaders were deeply unpopular, political unrest etc (ofc things aren’t as bad as ‘81) so it’s not a huge shock- other than having neither of the two main parties at top.

[Blair]

Is Cleverly liked by the white base of the Conservative Party?

I posted a similar question and it was deleted here.

Do black Britons like Cleverly, if he becomes prime minister?

Since most leftwing political parties use minority voters, this would be a big break for the Tories.

There’s no real difference- it’s wrong to talk about minority voters in U.K. politics as a bloc because because there’s a huge difference in how Hindus vote, and how Afro-Caribbean’s vote (or often don’t)

[The Mikado]

We had these Lib Dem numbers in 2010- and we had the alliance at 50% in 1981- a time when both leaders were deeply unpopular, political unrest etc (ofc things aren’t as bad as ‘81) so it’s not a huge shock- other than having neither of the two main parties at top.

Presumably this will make both Cons and Lab even more gunshy than they already were about early elections and help the next Tory leader limp through until the end of term, right?

[Izzyeviel]

It's official.

Westminster voting intention:

LDem: 24% (+6)
Brex: 22% (+4)
Con: 19% (-5)
Lab: 19% (-5)
Grn: 8% (+2)

via @YouGov
Chgs. w/ 17 May

[Izzyeviel]

Is Cleverly liked by the white base of the Conservative Party?

I posted a similar question and it was deleted here.

Do black Britons like Cleverly, if he becomes prime minister?

Since most leftwing political parties use minority voters, this would be a big break for the Tories.

Irrelevant in the UK. Contrary to what the pro-trump media says, the UK is nearly 90% white.

[brucejoel99]

It's official.

Westminster voting intention:

LDem: 24% (+6)
Brex: 22% (+4)
Con: 19% (-5)
Lab: 19% (-5)
Grn: 8% (+2)

via @YouGov
Chgs. w/ 17 May

https://twitter.com/Nndroid/status/1133352162493390848

[Former President tack50]

What's the last time the UK had a poll with someone other than Labour or the Tories in 1st? And if the Lib Dems somehow won and Brexit got 2nd, this would be the first time without Labor and the Tories ahead since literally forever right?

[Blair]

What's the last time the UK had a poll with someone other than Labour or the Tories in 1st? And if the Lib Dems somehow won and Brexit got 2nd, this would be the first time without Labor and the Tories ahead since literally forever right?

1981 had the SPD/Liberal Allianc at 50%

We had these Lib Dem numbers in 2010- and we had the alliance at 50% in 1981- a time when both leaders were deeply unpopular, political unrest etc (ofc things aren’t as bad as ‘81) so it’s not a huge shock- other than having neither of the two main parties at top.

Presumably this will make both Cons and Lab even more gunshy than they already were about early elections and help the next Tory leader limp through until the end of term, right?

The next election isn’t going to happen because anyone wants to go to the polls- but only because it will be the only way to resolve Brexit. If you want to stop no deal, or get a majority for a new deal, without a second ref you need a vote.

Besides British politics is getting a smell about it- much like summer of 2016

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Is Cleverly liked by the white base of the Conservative Party?

I posted a similar question and it was deleted here.

Do black Britons like Cleverly, if he becomes prime minister?

Since most leftwing political parties use minority voters, this would be a big break for the Tories.

I imagine most Black Britons are unaware of the existence of Cleverley.

Right-wing parties are also very capable of winning ethnic minorities - see Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc.  And in theory the conservatives should be doing better with them at the moment; a sizable number of Black Brits were broadly positive towards Brexit if it meant renewing links with Commonwelath countries and avoiding an influx of cheap white labour from the Balkans; Afro Carribeans are also a relatively "integrated" ethnic minority compared to groups the Tories are much less in favour of (i.e. Muslims) and are gradually moving out of the cities into suburbs and commuter towns, where the swing voters dwell. However, the rising surge of explicit anti-immigration language, the hostile environment and most notably the Windrush scandal heavily damaged any potential Tory inroads on the issue.

[parochial boy]

What's the last time the UK had a poll with someone other than Labour or the Tories in 1st? And if the Lib Dems somehow won and Brexit got 2nd, this would be the first time without Labor and the Tories ahead since literally forever right?

A handful had the lib dems in first after the first debate back in 2010. Incidentally, a couple of those were also YouGov, who, notwithstanding their performance as a pollster, - are definitely very good at marketing

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'll also note quickly, because this is often missed, that a lot of the public dissatisfaction with the two big parties on this issue stems from irritation that they have not 'solved' it yet. This isn't the most coherent of sentiments, but it is widespread.

Which is exactly why I'm convinced that the best move for Labour, no matter how crazy that sounds, would have been to back May's deal. Sure, it would have made it a little more unpopular in the short term, but then everybody would have moved on from Brexit and the discussion could have shifted back to economic issues.

Instead, by sinking a deal that, while flawed, represented the only practicable middle ground between no deal and a second referendum, it has all but ensured that polarization on the issue will continue - something that, as we're seeing, spells doom for a party like Labour.