UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, The End of May

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

What a meltdown!


Though, the results might be very different in a month, when there is a new PM and everything will have stabilised to some extent.

[MillennialModerate]

I’d LOVE to see a scenario where the Brexit party crushes it.

A Labour-Brexit top 2 would be a really interesting situation.

[morgieb]

all you can say if that result did come to pass would be that three and four way marginals would become the norm, tactical voting would become impossible and there would be loads of fluke winners (and Onasyana/O'Mara style flameouts in the ensuing parliament) and high profile losses from both Labour and the Tories.

Agree that it would be far worse for the Tories than Labour though, because the former would have no real safe regions to fall back on - even blue counties like Surrey would collapse.

The places where the Tories would probably hold up best would be in affluent exurban/rural seats where the Brexit vote was around 50/50 or so. For Labour you're looking at minority and urban post-industrial working class areas. So in the event of both parties crashing, Labour do better than the Tories.

Would Corbyn lose if Labour got 19% and the Lib Dems 24%?

From Flavible Politics, inputting the data from the poll, Islington North would look like this

Labour: 32%
Brexit: 26%
Lib Dem: 22%
Green: 9%
CUK: 8%
Conservatives: 3%

As a bonus, here's Maidenhead as well (May's seat)

Conservative: 30%
Lib Dem: 29%
Brexit: 26%
Green: 6%
Labour: 6%
CUK: 1%
UKIP: 1%

Of course, take all of this with a huge amount of caution as models do break down with these huge swings. But Theresa May would be more likely to lose her seat than Corbyn. In fact, the Tories would only get 70 seats with these numbers

Well... maybe. In Corbyn's seat, BXP wouldn't do anywhere near that well, but the LDs would do much better (extremely heavily Remain seat), so the projection is probably way off. On the other hand, in May's seat, the projection is probably about right because it's the sort of seat where both the LDs and BXP would make substantial gains roughly proportionately to the national result (narrowly Remain seat).

Yeah, it's worth noting the Leave vote was less than 26% in the Corbyn's seat, so the Brexit Party only get about 5% or something. So you can see a path for the Lib Dems if Corbyn's vote is only at 32% or something.

OTOH CrabCake's point about it being somewhat deprived is valid (I was under the impression it was wholly an urbane progressive/champagne socialist area)

On that point, Chukka's probably one CUK MP that might hang on (as well as Wollastorm)

[Crumpets]

Given those numbers basically, no party really will be able to form a government because I doubt Lib Dems would agree to enter any coalition which has SNP in it and I doubt they would enter in a coalition with the tories again.


So basically you probably would have to call a new election immediately after the conclusion of this one   

Why?

[Joe Republic]

Stop getting excited about Corbyn losing his seat people, its not happening.

(nor is May losing hers, come to that)

I think it's quite likely that she won't be the candidate, but I wouldn't entirely rule out the Tories losing Maidenhead if things are going very wrong for them.  It was fairly close in 2001 and somewhat optimistically targeted in 2005.

Lord Buckethead pulls an upset perhaps?

[DaWN]

https://twitter.com/magnitsky/status/1134738319571673088?fbclid=IwAR0oufurwKS3sO...

Whoopsie daisy

[DaWN]

On that point, Chukka's probably one CUK MP that might hang on

He does have somewhat of a personal vote locally but I think it would require the Lib Dems standing aside and effectively endorsing, which would be far from a given.

(All of this on the assumption that YouGov poll wasn't a massive outlier of course)

[CumbrianLefty]

Re the Lisa Forbes thing - lots of people "like" stuff on Facebook/Twitter like confetti. What matters far more is what they say themselves, and yes I would apply this across the political spectrum.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's nothing in Late Corbyn Era Thigmoo that can't be discussed via the medium of Death of Stalin quotes, I guess:

'Who's going to carry the can for this farrago of shite?!'

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Re the Lisa Forbes thing - lots of people "like" stuff on Facebook/Twitter like confetti. What matters far more is what they say themselves, and yes I would apply this across the political spectrum.

[Blair]

Re the Lisa Forbes thing - lots of people "like" stuff on Facebook/Twitter like confetti. What matters far more is what they say themselves, and yes I would apply this across the political spectrum.

I would never like an article like this on Facebook. And besides it shows an amazing level of stupidity for someone who wants to be an MP to actually believe this- the repugnant nature of it is awful, but it shows just how low the bar is in some parties...

[CumbrianLefty]

My point is that "liking" stuff generally doesn't really mean anything.

People often do it without even properly reading/looking at the post in question.

(indeed, I think that is what happened with Corbyn and THE MURAL)

And, before you ask, yes I would apply this to all parties/political tendencies.

By their OWN words shall ye know them.

[Joe Republic]

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson_MP/status/1134398873328398336

[DINGO Joe]

^^^^^
Fabulous

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

There's nothing in Late Corbyn Era Thigmoo that can't be discussed via the medium of Death of Stalin quotes, I guess:

'Who's going to carry the can for this farrago of shite?!'

“Carried... you... nanimously.”

God I love that movie

[Blair]

My point is that "liking" stuff generally doesn't really mean anything.

People often do it without even properly reading/looking at the post in question.

(indeed, I think that is what happened with Corbyn and THE MURAL)

And, before you ask, yes I would apply this to all parties/political tendencies.

By their OWN words shall ye know them.

She wrote in her own words ‘I have enjoyed reading this thread very much’- this was on a post claiming that Mossad creates ISIS.... so yes let’s judge her by her own words.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, that is the sole evidence provided by her own comments - a pretty meaningless bromide at the end of a thread which will have contained many different things.

Its worthy of an "I apologise for any upset caused", but not much more IMO.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

There's nothing in Late Corbyn Era Thigmoo that can't be discussed via the medium of Death of Stalin quotes, I guess:

'Who's going to carry the can for this farrago of shite?!'

“Carried... you... nanimously.”

God I love that movie

Ditto, though 1983 "Red Monarch" is unfairly forgotten.

[Blair]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1134932682218115073

[CumbrianLefty]

Why does the phrase "chip off the old block" come to mind here.......

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I’d LOVE to see a scenario where the Brexit party crushes it.

A Labour-Brexit top 2 would be a really interesting situation.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1134901920525639680

[CumbrianLefty]

Btw that 17% is the lowest Tory score ever, and by "ever" I do actually mean in any survey since opinion polling as we know it started in the 1930s.

[Former President tack50]

Btw that 17% is the lowest Tory score ever, and by "ever" I do actually mean in any survey since opinion polling as we know it started in the 1930s.

The 1930s? Pff, we can do better than that. If confirmed; it would be a full 11 points lower than the worst Tory result ever since the popular vote meant something (29% in 1832)

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Btw that 17% is the lowest Tory score ever, and by "ever" I do actually mean in any survey since opinion polling as we know it started in the 1930s.

1943 was the first opinion poll, but yeah. It’s their worst for Westminster polling.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

https://twitter.com/popbitch/status/1135128997766057984