UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, The End of May

[Silent Hunter]

Well, that gives us a bit more time for sanity to prevail.

You always were an optimist.

Which is odd, because my stock response to the "glass half full or empty" questions is "half full, but the water will evaporate".

[Devout Centrist]

So if I'm hearing this correctly, May is willing to go for a no deal Brexit? If that's the case, how in the world is there a parliamentary majority for her deal? The ERG certainly won't back it, nor will the DUP. Remainers from the Tories and the Labour Party coming together? Not likely!
 

[Middle-aged Europe]

So if I'm hearing this correctly, May is willing to go for a no deal Brexit?

Either that or it's just her "strategy" to pretend that she will.

I'm not really sure whether May herself knows at this point if she's gonna go for no-deal Brexit.

[Middle-aged Europe]

1.The European Council takes note of the letter of Prime Minister Theresa May of 20 March 2019.

2.In response, the European Council approves the Instrument relating to the Withdrawal Agreement and the Joint Statement supplementing the Political Declaration agreed between the European Commission and the government of the United Kingdom in Strasbourg on 11 March 2019.

3.The European Council agrees to an extension until 22 May 2019, provided the Withdrawal Agreement is approved by the House of Commons next week. If the Withdrawal Agreement is not approved by the House of Commons next week, the European Council agrees to an extension until 12 April 2019 and expects the United Kingdom to indicate a way forward before this date for consideration by the European Council.

4.The European Council reiterates that there can be no opening of the Withdrawal Agreement that was agreed between the Union and the United Kingdom in November 2018. Any unilateral commitment, statement or other act should be compatible with the letter and the spirit of the Withdrawal Agreement.

5.The European Council calls for work to be continued on preparedness and contingency at all levels for the consequences of the United Kingdom’s withdrawal, taking into account all possible outcomes.

6.The European Council will remain seized of the matter.

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/38744/21-euco-art50-conclusions-en.pdf


At least we know now that Brexit is not going to happen on March 29. Stay tuned!

[Silent Hunter]

Tusk confirms May has agreed to this. Now she all needs to do is get the leaving date changed via Statutory Instrument. Interesting to see how many rebels on that.

[Sestak]

2 week extension. L f[inks]ing mao

[Silent Hunter]

Well, it does give the option for a longer one, but it would need a decision on European Parliament elections at that point and an indication to EU27 of way forward.

[Blair]

A more pragmatic move from the EU than I expected, and proves that they know, and understand the commons a lot better than our political class think they do- the first short extension is merely a facade as May will lose the vote next week because the extension has a provision for the UK 'to indicate a way forward'- which means that every faction is convinced they can wrestle control away from the PM, and present the way forward- the most likely being indicative votes next week, with support for Norway, or Labours Customs Union.

I'd be fascinated to know the actual objection to a CU, beyond the lack of a free trade policy, which is irrelevant unless you want chlorinated chicken. So expect Cooper-Boles-Benn-Letwin to return- possibly as an amendment.

Important Point: The WA has came closest to passing when one faction is faced with a cliff edge- the reason the ERG flirted with it was because it appeared that the PM would go for a long extension, and that the Commons would take control of the process. Likewise, if we had the 29th as the leave date (no extension) then there would have been Labour/Tory remainers backing it- but if both sides can be convinced they can vote against it with freedom, they're not going to get burnt voting for it. Theresa May has turned it into such a toxic object that no-one wants to touch.

Finally-Bercow's ruling that you can't keep revoting also stops the PM bullying remainers into backing the deal, with the threat of no-deal. They'll get one vote, most likely next week. (Although the PM might actually hold back the vote next week)
 

So if I'm hearing this correctly, May is willing to go for a no deal Brexit? If that's the case, how in the world is there a parliamentary majority for her deal? The ERG certainly won't back it, nor will the DUP. Remainers from the Tories and the Labour Party coming together? Not likely!
 

Unless there's something I've missed in the last few hours; not strictly true.

She's enjoyed using no-deal as a threat, but her line for the past few days has been she'll quit as PM if forced into a longer extension- but that's different to personally marching us to no-deal. I think it's likely, and she clearly is prepared to see it be risked, and carried out- but as numerous Tories both in the Cabinet and out have said- a no-deal brexit means the end of her government, and her as PM.

It's more likely her quitting will pave the way for Javid/Hunt/Raab, which means no-deal, but who knows?

It's clear we have a framework of understanding what happens next, but  knows if anything actually changes as we've been on autopilot since she lost MV2.

[Former President tack50]

As a sidenote, how long does it take for the UK to get a new government once the old one is gone?

If May resigned or lost a confidence vote tomorrow, how long would it take to get a successor?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

They're carrying on discussing this over dinner. This could take a while.

Delicious!

https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1108821605952749568

Crow with humble pie for dessert.

[brucejoel99]

As a sidenote, how long does it take for the UK to get a new government once the old one is gone?

If May resigned or lost a confidence vote tomorrow, how long would it take to get a successor?

If it's simply the former, then it'd be a minimum of 6 days (based on the 2016 timeline, at least) before nominations would close & a new leader could take office, but this would only apply to the hypothetical scenario in which a sole candidate were to stand unopposed. If an actual leadership election had to be held, though, then it'd be 10-11 weeks from May's resignation to the announcement of the winner of the Conservative Party members' ballot. Presumably, May would continue in her post as a lame duck while the leadership election is ongoing.

However, if she loses a confidence vote in the Commons, then all bets are off. 2 weeks is the period allowed by the Fixed-term Parliaments Act for the Commons to support a new government after a vote of no confidence; if the Commons doesn't support a new government in those 2 weeks, then an early general election will automatically be held. Furthermore, it depends on just how May's government lost the confidence vote. For example...

• If it was due to Brexiteers voting no confidence in the government until May is out of office, then she might be forced to step down & replaced as Tory leader via the Tory leadership process outlined above: if there's an unopposed candidate, then they're likely the new PM on Day 6 of the two-week period, with the Commons (& Brexiteers) supporting the new government; if there has to be an actual leadership election, though, then perhaps the Commons re-voices its support for May's government before the two-week period ends, with the general understanding that May's a lame duck while the leadership election is ongoing.
• On the other hand, if it was due to the DUP choosing to withdraw confidence & supply, & combine with the opposition parties to force an early general election, then there's definitely gonna be an early general election, which would either have to be fought with a lame duck May (unlikely) or an unopposed leadership candidate (much more likely) as the Tory leader, because there simply wouldn't be enough time for a full leadership election to be held prior to the general election (given the fact that the early general election would be approximately 7 weeks after the vote of no confidence & a full leadership election would take 10-11 weeks, not to mention the fact that'd it be nearly impossible to effectively hold a leadership election simultaneously alongside the general election campaign).
• But then there's always the possibility (unlikely, but possible given May's tenacity) that May would just dig her heels in further after losing the no confidence vote & straight up refuse to stand down, which would still force an early general election but would also ensure that she's still the Tory leader who'd get to fight that election.

[Silent Hunter]

Callaghan fought the General Election in 1979 after all.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Following more than an hour of explanations that with days left until Britain might crash out she could win over lawmakers who have twice rejected her EU withdrawal deal, May left the summit room on Thursday and the other 27 leaders conferred — finding a consensus that they were even less convinced than before, officials familiar with their discussions told Reuters.

French President Emmanuel Macron told the room that before coming to Brussels he had thought May had only a 10 percent chance of winning the vote. After listening to the prime minister, he said, he had cut his estimate — to five percent.

To general assent, one person present said, summit chair Donald Tusk shot back that Macron was being “very optimistic”.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-chances-idUKKCN1R30AZ

[brucejoel99]

Callaghan fought the General Election in 1979 after all.

Yeah, but the difference there is that, even with the Winter of Discontent, there wasn't an internal party revolt against Callaghan, whereas there currently is within the Conservative Party against May. He had the support of his party to fight the election. Could the same be said for May today?

[DaWN]

Callaghan fought the General Election in 1979 after all.

Yeah, but the difference there is that, even with the Winter of Discontent, there wasn't an internal party revolt against Callaghan, whereas there currently is within the Conservative Party against May. He had the support of his party to fight the election. Could the same be said for May today?

On the other hand, Callaghan faced far more formidable opposition in that election than May could/will

[Silent Hunter]

Christopher Davies (Conservative, Brecon and Radnorshire) has just pleaded guilty to two expenses fraud charges.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So are we going to have to elect EU Parliamentarians...?

[Middle-aged Europe]

So are we going to have to elect EU Parliamentarians...?

We won't know that before the second week of April, apparently.

Since the House of Commons will in all likelihood reject the Brexit deal for a third time, the current extension will probably last only until April 12. Then the EU will want to know whether the UK prefers a no-deal Brexit or some sort of other solution which then would recquire another extension and a participation of the UK in the EP elections.

[Silent Hunter]

We need to pass the necessary legislation for the EP elections by then anyway.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It's real pity that you can't hold "either/or" votes btw.

Otherwise you could simply force the House of Commons to choose to vote for either a no-deal Brexit, the withdrawal agreement, or revoking Article 50 altogether. If neither option receives a majority on the first ballot, there would be a run-off between the two options with the most votes. A no vote wouldn't be possible.

[Silent Hunter]

That's kind of the idea of the Cooper/Boles/Benn amendment.

[YL]

Christopher Davies (Conservative, Brecon and Radnorshire) has just pleaded guilty to two expenses fraud charges.

I think this means another recall petition.  The Recall of MPs Act has special provisions for this, so it's not dependent on the sentence.

[Silent Hunter]

At the very least. If he doesn't resign first. Also, Lib Dems held that seat until 2015.

[brucejoel99]

We need to pass the necessary legislation for the EP elections by then anyway.

No legislation necessary. As a precautionary measure, the Electoral Commission has already set aside the necessary funds to deliver their functions for its activities relating to a European parliamentary election, in the event that they do go ahead.

[Silent Hunter]

Don't we need to pass secondary legislation?