UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, The End of May

[Blair]

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1108415859918336000

Spoiler: She can't

Is that totally true ?  If confronted with a no deal Brexit on 3/29 would not some pro-Remain MPs might fold and vote for May's deal? 

Some may but enough have been burnt very badly (whether they’re Tories like Grieve, or Labour MPs in leave seats like Nandy) Theresa May has pissed off every wing on Parliament, and has a history of breaking, and betraying promises.

[Blair]

A more pragmatic move from the EU than I expected, and proves that they know, and understand the commons a lot better than our political class think they do- the first short extension is merely a facade as May will lose the vote next week because the extension has a provision for the UK 'to indicate a way forward'- which means that every faction is convinced they can wrestle control away from the PM, and present the way forward- the most likely being indicative votes next week, with support for Norway, or Labours Customs Union.

I'd be fascinated to know the actual objection to a CU, beyond the lack of a free trade policy, which is irrelevant unless you want chlorinated chicken. So expect Cooper-Boles-Benn-Letwin to return- possibly as an amendment.

Important Point: The WA has came closest to passing when one faction is faced with a cliff edge- the reason the ERG flirted with it was because it appeared that the PM would go for a long extension, and that the Commons would take control of the process. Likewise, if we had the 29th as the leave date (no extension) then there would have been Labour/Tory remainers backing it- but if both sides can be convinced they can vote against it with freedom, they're not going to get burnt voting for it. Theresa May has turned it into such a toxic object that no-one wants to touch.

Finally-Bercow's ruling that you can't keep revoting also stops the PM bullying remainers into backing the deal, with the threat of no-deal. They'll get one vote, most likely next week. (Although the PM might actually hold back the vote next week)
 

So if I'm hearing this correctly, May is willing to go for a no deal Brexit? If that's the case, how in the world is there a parliamentary majority for her deal? The ERG certainly won't back it, nor will the DUP. Remainers from the Tories and the Labour Party coming together? Not likely!
 

Unless there's something I've missed in the last few hours; not strictly true.

She's enjoyed using no-deal as a threat, but her line for the past few days has been she'll quit as PM if forced into a longer extension- but that's different to personally marching us to no-deal. I think it's likely, and she clearly is prepared to see it be risked, and carried out- but as numerous Tories both in the Cabinet and out have said- a no-deal brexit means the end of her government, and her as PM.

It's more likely her quitting will pave the way for Javid/Hunt/Raab, which means no-deal, but who knows?

It's clear we have a framework of understanding what happens next, but  knows if anything actually changes as we've been on autopilot since she lost MV2.

[Blair]

I went to the march after doing some book shopping- was great fun, and lovely to see people on the train with flags, signs and stuff. Genuine movement as well with people across the country coming- my main takeaway is that Brexit will continue to be a huge cultural issue for a long time. You can’t just put this back in the bottle.

And fwiw the news of a coup is most likely overblown briefing- no PM has actually been removed in a cabinet lead coup since what 1916?

[Blair]

Thatcher was basically told to go in 1990 after failing to end the leadership contest in the first round.

Whatever happens re Brexit, it won't end the issue, I agree. it was too close.

Yeah; but that started with the leadership bid. We haven’t had the cabinet actually march up to a PM and tell them to quit- but we get tons of stories about it (Brown in 08, Major in ‘95 and countless others)

I’m just so sceptical that a cabinet full of leadership rivals is able to actually do anything this well delicate.

[Blair]

There are reports that a large part of the Cabinet is finally in revolt, and planning to secure May's resignation next week. Among other things, the Whips have alledgedly told her she has to go, the 1922 Committee may be considering a non-binding vote of confidence, and within the Cabinet there's talk of installing a unity candidate as a caretaker PM to secure a long extension and preside over a leadership contest in a few months.

Some reports say David Lidington could be the "unity "candidate, others say it could be Michael Gove.

Seems to be becoming a factional divide with Gove as the Brexit candidate vs soft Brexit supporter Lidington. It's a fast moving situation though so this could be out of date very soon.

Spoke too soon as the ERG are already attacking Gove.

No way he could be a caretaker though as he wants the top job full time.

[Blair]

The only reason May was able to cling onto the premiership is no one likes the thought of touching a rooting corpse.

Cynics are suggesting the "coup" only filled the Sunday paper front pages in order to distract from the huge pro-EU demo on Saturday. But it is possible the mere talk of it has been enough to make no deal significantly less likely.

I really don't get this argument- it's not as if it's 1925 where the only way to get news if you missed the radio was the papers.

Almost everyone would have either seen footage of the march on the Internet, the evening news, the radio news or seen it on the Sunday programs.

It only really distracted among the 5,000 or so people who obsessively follow politics, and those people already would have spoken endlessly about the march. It's hardly as if the Sunday Times, and Sunday Mail are the only news source...

[Blair]

And the DUP as it stands aren't shifting; you still have 20 or so who will most likely never vote for the deal, along with 7-8 remainers who will keep voting against it.

[Blair]

Who is likely to replace May as PM?

Whomever a majority of participating Conservative Party members choose to cast their votes for...

In all seriousness, gun to my head, Gove or Johnson are probably (as of right now) the most likely potential candidates to succeed May (in the event that her deal actually gets passed & she does indeed stand down), though that could change on a moment's notice; really, anything can happen.

FWIW; it's unlikely to be Johnson, because MPs won't let him get to the members. Only two candidates actually go to the members- they have a run-off among MPs first. This tends to be a vicious, and hilarious mode of electing MPs- and it means that candidates who are very unpopular tend to get blocked. See Portillo in 2001, Howard in 1997, and Johnson/Gove in 2016.

There's a large chunk of both remainers and leavers who will support someone they don't want as leader purely to stop Johnson. Of course, who actually knows what could happen if we have 10+ people running

 

[Blair]

Anyone claiming we must leave with no-deal is either a political charlatan who is doing it to prop up their own political ends whilst knowing it would be awful, or is seriously dim, and has never actually studied the Good Friday Agreement, or how reliant on imports the UK is, or how devastating it would be for the UK's manufacturing industry.

But sure keep sprouting pathetic meaningless slogans, whilst acknowledging that the entire referendum was a colossal cock up.

[Blair]

Fwiw it’s hard to argue that the Labour Party, nor the party membership doesn’t have some sort of inbuild problem with electing a female leader considering that in the 2015 selection you had a hard left man, a soft left man and an old right man beat female candidates from the left, soft left and right of the party.

And ofc it’s not as if any faction has a monopoly on purity- Brown treated Harriet Harman awfully, and his staff were hideously blokely, but equally there’s a reason why McDonell and co talk up Rebecca Long Bailey, Pidock and others as the next leader- because everyone knows it’s going to most likely be a female leader next.

[Blair]

Fwiw it’s hard to argue that the Labour Party, nor the party membership doesn’t have some sort of inbuild problem with electing a female leader considering that in the 2015 selection you had a hard left man, a soft left man and an old right man beat female candidates from the left, soft left and right of the party.

And ofc it’s not as if any faction has a monopoly on purity- Brown treated Harriet Harman awfully, and his staff were hideously blokely, but equally there’s a reason why McDonell and co talk up Rebecca Long Bailey, Pidock and others as the next leader- because everyone knows it’s going to most likely be a female leader next.

Cooper and (especially) Kendall did badly in 2015 because they were too right wing, not because they were women. A woman was Watson's strongest challenger then as well (and I voted for her)

Rayner is IMO more likely to be the next leader than RLB, and Pidcock is still too young (unless Jez goes on even longer than his most fervent fans expect)

I mean the best example of it was I knew lots of people who voted Corbyn but militantly refused to vote for Dianne Abbott in the Mayoral Selection.

Of course that's partly because it was Dianne Abbott, but would be equally true when Keir Starmer somehow wins the next leadership election against Thornberry, Cooper and Rayner.

It's also worth noting Labour doesn't have a single female metro mayor, or as Scottish/Welsh Leader. It just seems strange for a party that has such a large female talent base both in the PLP and Cllrs.

[Blair]

No deal really won't be as bad as everyone is trying to make it out to be

Do you have any experience working in EU-UK trade, policing, or imports? Because frankly unless you do, or unless you've spend the last 6 months sitting through briefings and meetings then I'm not gonna be that certain to take your word as gospel.

To give one example, the police currently use a range of databases to track criminals across the EU- as you can imagine our Serious Violent Crime has links to Spain, Holland etc and other places. A no-deal Brexit would see us not only lose access to these databases, but also lose access to the European Arrest Warrant- you heard that, we'd lose the right to easily arrest criminals across 27 other countries! Do you have any idea how insane that is? The most senior counter terrorist police officer has said it will make the public less safe, and greatly increases the risks of violent crime?

I haven't even covered the impact on the NHS (who's running costs would increase by over £2 billion by day), the impact on Trade (it would kill the car manufacturing industry which supports entire cities) or the impact on imports (70% of our pharmaceutical imports come from the EU, including HIV/AIDS medicine, and vital cancer medicines).

It would not only have serious short term impacts, and would cripple the governments output, but would seriously harm our economy for the next 10 years.

[Blair]

Yes I’m not sure who can look at how Mitch McConnell runs the Senate and sas ‘yes this is a system of government that puts national interest first’.

[Blair]

I wonder if the queen would have dissolved the government by now if it was't for the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act.

Nope. The Queen won't be getting involved in this at all.

[Blair]

All polling relating to Brexit is useless, other than as a signal of how easy it is to change people's asnwer by framing the question.

[Blair]

Yep but she’s not offering it.

[Blair]

Yep; and it's clearly just Macron briefing about how aggressive he's being before he accepts whatever weaker limits the EU put in place.

[Blair]

I always thought the choice was a flash in the pan 'anti-Brexit' Party, or a longer term Macron esque project- they went for the second, but that was back before anyone really expected us to have EU elections.

They're right to want a brand beyond Brexit; but there's a big danger they won't exist to see it.

Of course this all part of a wider story; the reality is that Labour are still holding onto a large chunk of remain voters, largely through their ability to make sympathetic noises, but also because people who voted remain in the most part are more likely to vote Labour. Alongside the 'anti-brexit' vote being split among the Greens/Lib Dems/SNP and Plaid.

[Blair]

I always thought the choice was a flash in the pan 'anti-Brexit' Party, or a longer term Macron esque project- they went for the second, but that was back before anyone really expected us to have EU elections.

They're right to want a brand beyond Brexit; but there's a big danger they won't exist to see it.

Of course this all part of a wider story; the reality is that Labour are still holding onto a large chunk of remain voters, largely through their ability to make sympathetic noises, but also because people who voted remain in the most part are more likely to vote Labour. Alongside the 'anti-brexit' vote being split among the Greens/Lib Dems/SNP and Plaid.

They could have (should have) named themselves the "Remain Party" (or something similar) and then renamed themselves later once Brexit wasn't the only issue. It was obvious at the time that Brexit was both the driving force behind the creation of the party and the dominant political issue for at least the next year or so of politics. But, most significantly, the members of CUK didn't present much reason to leave their original parties other than disagreements over Brexit (well, Heidi Allen should always have been a Lib Dem, but that's neither here nor there).

I recognize that the British party naming rules make finding a good party name actually shocking difficult, but there were definitely options ("Centre Party"?).

The main reason it started was because of antisemitism within Labour; that's the reason why Luciana Berger left, and why the others followed suit (although it remains baffling why the most vocal critics- Margaret Hodge/Ruth Smeeth/Louise Ellman didn't leave when they clearly agree)

My understanding is that whilst it was planned in the long term; that pushed them off, and mouthballed into this.

It was basically three political projects rolled into one- the anti-Corbyn Labour Right, the anti-Brexit crowd, and the 'centrists all holding hands' gang.

I won't go into the details of the MPs, but they're really such a hilariously strange mix

[Blair]

No surprise really- Williamson leaked like a sieve, and this story made him look good whilst damaging the PM/Javid and Hunt.

He was a sh**t SOS who pandered to the tabloid press


Ironic as Mordaunt was the favourite to get it last time- ex navy, junior minister and handled DFID as well as you expect from the Tories. Rory Stewart is a solid choice- a bit earnest, but one of the most qualified MPs for the job considering he was a Governor in post war Iraq.

[Blair]

I expect, they’ll promise to go back to Brussels to get a better deal with the threat of a no-deal. As much as people like Hunt and Javid talk about supporting it in cabinet- I’d struggle to see them doing it as PM because the institutional pull, and weight of being PM should really stop you doing something so stupid.

The reality is there’s enough votes I reckon to trigger a no-confidence vote if the leader just went straight for a no-deal- Grieve, Greening, Lee, Boles etc etc.

I’m very much expecting a General Election.

[Blair]

Ah class/race and and labours problem with the working class vote

This is not a new problem. People in the 60s said the same about labour- and how they need to ban buggery, bring back the gallows and expel the Keynian Asians to keep on side with the working class (who are of course white)

That’s the key word- white. There’s a huge working class community in Hounslow, Bradford, Lewisham etc who labour also need to repesent.

Besides; we shouldn’t forgot that places like Liverpool voted strongly to remain whilst very well of and comfortable areas voted leave. It’s a complex issue which isn’t fixed by crude claims about the ‘post industrial working class’ which is about as vague a term as saying ‘middle class voters’.

And finally; what is the Brexit deal that sorts this? We can’t have FOM because we’re told our white working class voter base hates it (as we’re told by Ian Austin, and the other lexiteers) so that rules out the single market (which our small industrial base relies on) so we’re left with the Customs Union- is that really the Brexit that people thought they were getting?

[Blair]

It’s also worth noting that thanks to Farage, Theresa May and the ludicrous promises of the Leave Campaign any Brexit deal will be seen as a betrayal and a failure; and I’m still convinced that Labours social liberalism, Corbyns history and the generic malaise is actually a lot more harmful than its lack of support for Brexit.

If you want Labour to become a lexit, socially conservative, small town based party then you’re going to need 230 new MPs, 200 new lords, 450,000 new members, 6 million+ new voters and the whitewashing of 50 years of history.

[Blair]

Whilst JC's eurosceptism is obvious, it's always been rather theoretical than practical. It's like how Skinner and co on the left voted against the deal, simply because it damaged the Tories, and helped Labour.

Sure they know that state aid rules could make some of the policies difficult (it's a debate that 99% of Westminster, including myself, isn't smart enough to fully understand) but equally they know that it's irrelevant if they don't have 340+ MPs in the next parliament. Corbyn has clearly been willing to throw his views out the window for powers sake- opposition to police cuts, opposition to freedom of movement, support for the EU membership etc.

[Blair]

We had these Lib Dem numbers in 2010- and we had the alliance at 50% in 1981- a time when both leaders were deeply unpopular, political unrest etc (ofc things aren’t as bad as ‘81) so it’s not a huge shock- other than having neither of the two main parties at top.