UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, The End of May

[Pericles]

There are reports that a large part of the Cabinet is finally in revolt, and planning to secure May's resignation next week. Among other things, the Whips have alledgedly told her she has to go, the 1922 Committee may be considering a non-binding vote of confidence, and within the Cabinet there's talk of installing a unity candidate as a caretaker PM to secure a long extension and preside over a leadership contest in a few months.

Some reports say David Lidington could be the "unity "candidate, others say it could be Michael Gove.

Seems to be becoming a factional divide with Gove as the Brexit candidate vs soft Brexit supporter Lidington. It's a fast moving situation though so this could be out of date very soon.

[Pericles]

Here come dat general election.

It's still not in the interests of the Tories though who'd be better off clinging on rather than risking PM Corbyn.

[Pericles]

I admit I'm not fully engaged with the ins and outs of Brexit and British politics, but at this point it seems that anyone who was truly capable of replacing May would have to be utterly daft to do so.  It's like being asked to hold a bag with TNT while they drop a piano on you.

Yeah pretty much. Having the inevitable blame magnetism of leadership at this point in time is more of a curse than anything.

Yes I remember Andrew Rawnsley said May would be the "human sponge" for the Tories taking all the blame for Brexit, indeed why waste a good PM on Brexit when they could just let a tainted one take all the hits? Once the human sponge is no longer needed Tories will quickly and ruthlessly get rid of May.

[Pericles]

Boris seems to have just flipped on May's deal. This could be big.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/mar/26/brexit-government-may-ignore-result-of-indicative-votes-process-says-hancock-live-news

[Pericles]

The thing is, that by the time any Canada deal is done (and in practice many goods would remain EU standards compliant), the Tories are likely to be out of government... and it would still need an open border in ireland.

The point isn't a consistent and logical argument, just one that seems to work so they have a fig-leaf to cover up the real reason would be that they think it's May's deal vs no Brexit and so they're choosing May's deal from that.

[Pericles]

16 options have apparently been tabled for the indicative votes so far, though Bercow will likely whittle them down.

[Pericles]

Tories fight like rats in a sack to hang on to the hard Brexit dream

[Pericles]

Jacob Rees Mogg is now backing Theresa May's Brexit deal.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6853561/Key-Eurosceptic-Jacob-Rees-Mogg-says-Theresa-Mays-deal.html

Jacob Rees-Mogg today urges hardline Eurosceptics to back Theresa May or face losing Brexit altogether.

Writing in the Daily Mail, he says fellow Leavers have to face the ‘awkward reality’ that Remainers will thwart the 2016 referendum result unless the EU withdrawal agreement is passed.

Mr Rees-Mogg admits that his change of heart will prompt accusations of treachery from some of his followers.

But he says the Prime Minister’s plan is now the only way to ensure Britain leaves the EU.

‘I apologise for changing my mind,’ he writes. ‘By doing so I will be accused of infirmity of purpose by some and treachery by others.


‘I have come to this view because the numbers in Parliament make it clear that all the other potential outcomes are worse and an awkward reality needs to be faced.’

His intervention came as the number of Eurosceptics reluctantly backing Mrs May threatened to turn from a trickle into a flood.

Seven Conservative MPs who voted against her plan earlier this month yesterday said they were changing their minds.

And last night Boris Johnson gave the strongest hint yet that he could also fall into line, saying: ‘If we vote it down again there is an appreciable and growing sense we will not leave at all. That is the risk.’

Former Tory leader and Eurosceptic Iain Duncan Smith said last night there was now a good chance of Mrs May winning the ‘meaningful’ vote.

[Pericles]

Looks like the ERG is coming around to her deal, Boris is now backing it as is IDS. However it seems there are still around 30 Tory defections. Without the DUP, lets' say May's deal has 25 Tory defections, and gets 15 Labour defections and 5 other defections, that gets it to 307(based on 2 Tories being tellers so abstaining). Speaker and Deputy Speaker, minus Sinn Fein, minus the vacant seat, and minus the 4 tellers makes it 329 votes against her deal. So she needs to either get the DUP around or hope the rest of the Tories end up buckling too out of fear of losing Brexit (if the indicative votes show a majority for a softer Brexit or second referendum this could help her in that area, though it's possible she'd lose votes elsewhere).

[Pericles]

Perhaps the best case scenario for May is if a second referendum comes really close to passing and does better than the other soft Brexit options. Since a second referendum is the scariest threat for Tory Brexiters and gettable Labour MPs, while if just a softer Brexit is the alternative to her deal she could lose some soft Brexit Tories and fail to win over Labour MPs who get to support their preferred Brexit while arguably honoring the referendum result. However if the indicative votes are a total debacle and no alternative seems to stand a chance that could be bad for May and encourage the Brexiters to hold out for no deal rather than buckling and backing her deal.

[Pericles]

Results coming in two minutes.

[Pericles]

Everything failed, Ken Clarke's customs union came closest losing 272-264. Confirmatory vote lost 295-268. Norway plus lost 283-188. Norway without customs union lost 377-65. No deal lost 400-160. Revoke Article 50 lost 293-184, and Malthouse lost 422-139. What a debacle.

[Pericles]

Pushing now for Ken Clarke's plan or a confirmatory vote offer the best way forward imo. Norway is dead I think and probably should be given it is a halfway house solution that would leave the UK as a rule taker for the EU so wouldn't satisfy Remainers or Leavers.

[Pericles]

Can they just do a vote to keep things exactly as they are in perpetuity? Because it's pretty clear no one wants to actually do anything on this issue.

Closest to status quo would be revoking Article 50 which got blown out.

[Pericles]

https://commonsvotes.digiminster.com

[Pericles]

Wait if Lib Dems had voted for customs union instead of abstaining it would have passed lol

Yet again the LibDems are a disappointment.

[Pericles]

Looks like the second referendum backers cleverly moved to kill off a soft Brexit today. Customs union motion was defeated by SNP abstaining, TIG voting against and 8 People's Vote Labour MPs abstaning/voting against. They've maneuvered the Kyle-Wilson "confirmatory public vote" into pole position among the Remain faction in parliament.

Problem is Ken Clarke's plan still came closer than the confirmatory vote option, and Corbyn may be more inclined to support Ken Clarke's plan. So while they killed Norway, customs union (and a harder version of it too) is still on the table.

[Pericles]

Did anyone else notice the person who shouted "Yes!" after Bercow announced the confirmatory vote amendment had 268 aye votes (but before he said the noes were 295). Did that person think the amendment had passed or what? Lol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hxv6X3NeBQg

At 2:03

[Pericles]

"I’m in favour of the deal and I hope the DUP will come over to the deal but we’ll have to wait and see what they do ...

I don’t think the deal’s suddenly got better, simply that the alternative is now worse. It’s not having any Brexit at all and it’s letting down the 17.4m people who voted to leave."-Jacob Rees Mogg, today(or at least this part of today)

Oh come on!!! Pick a position and stick to it, for crying out loud!

[Pericles]

Utterly disgraceful that this is what MPs are basing their votes on as opposed to the national interest, even in a national crisis like this.

[Pericles]

I don't know why I find an Irish website using Simpson memes to make fun of brexit so funny, but I do.

https://twitter.com/iresimpsonsfans

Thank you for sharing this, it's brilliant.

[Pericles]

Owen Smith voted against a customs union. Yet more proof he is a HP.

[Pericles]

Can't they chose their favourite votes via preferential ballot or something?

They already have the option to vote for as many options as they want, and are just trying to game the system by voting down options that they actually could live with so they can get their preferred option. However, there may some validity to the argument that it is naive to expect parliament to solve Brexit in a week when the government couldn't do it in nearly three years. If Theresa May hadn't made leaving the customs union a red line then perhaps a less divisive and easier Brexit would have been possible, however after the last 3 years trying to get a compromise from scratch is much harder in 2019 than it would have been in the aftermath of the referendum.

[Pericles]

It happened again! See 0:48, someone goes "Yes!" after Bercow says "280" but before he says the Noes were 292.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hqH3-ERw8Ls

[Pericles]

Does it look like she'll be PM longer than Gordon Brown?

EDIT: She will pass him on 29 May, a near certainty she will last longer given she won't resign as Tory leader until June 7 and even then she'll stay as leader for a bit until the leadership contest is completed. A hollow victory though, Gordon Brown put the time he had as PM to better use.