UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, The End of May

[brucejoel99]

Just so I am clear about what is next for Brexit:

It seems May has until 3/25 to get her deal passed by Parliament. If so then Brexit takes place with a short delay based on the deal.  if she does not get the deal passed by the Parliament by 3/25 then there will be a vote 3/25 Parliament with the following possibilities

a) Soft Brexit, delay
b) CON hardliners provoke a General Election which I assume there will be a delay until the General Election
c) Second Referendum, delay
d) Impasse continues and non-deal at h the end of extension

Did I get the various scenarios correct ?

Alright, here's the rundown:

May will hold a 3rd meaningful vote on her deal in the House of Commons by Wed, Mar. 20th.

• If it's successful (which is unlikely but not necessarily impossible considering it's possible that May could get the DUP to support the deal, though it'll still depend on how many Brexiteer rebels she can get to vote for the deal with the DUP on board &/or with the threat that they can either vote for May's deal with a short delay or face a long extension & perhaps have no Brexit at all), then May will then go to the EU summit in Brussels on Thu, Mar. 21st & request the short technical extension through Jun. 30th, which she prefers. Domestically, legislation would then be introduced to bring the withdrawal deal into effect with the new Brexit date, Jun. 30th, rather than the would-be-incompatible date that the EU Withdrawal Act previously put on the statute books, Mar. 29th.
• If it's unsuccessful, then May will then go to the EU summit in Brussels on Thu, Mar. 21st & request the much longer extension (which will require the UK to take part in the European parliamentary elections in 10 weeks' time), which EU officials have suggested could last anywhere from 9 months (through Dec. 31st, 2019) to 21 months (through Dec. 31st, 2020). Domestically, legislation would then be introduced to bring Brexit into effect with the new Brexit date, either Dec. 31st, 2019, or Dec. 31st, 2020, rather than the would-be-incompatible date that the EU Withdrawal Act previously put on the statute books, Mar. 29th.

However, if, for whatever reason, the EU (on Thu, Mar. 21st or Fri, Mar. 22nd) denies May's request, whether it be for the short technical extension through Jun. 30th (in the event that May's deal passes this week) or the much longer extension (in the event that May's deal doesn't pass this week), then (presuming there's no revocation of Article 50 in the event that May's deal had been passed, or MP's finally agreeing to May's deal in the event that it hadn't) the default outcome will still be that there will be a no-deal Brexit on Mar. 29th.

In the event of the much longer extension, May is expected to propose a renegotiation of a completely new Brexit deal, likely after the Commons has had a chance to find a consensus & express its view about alternative deals through indicative votes that would be held in the 2 weeks following the EU summit, by about Apr. 4th or 5th.

• If the EU renegotiates, there would then be a complete renegotiation that would take some time. In this renegotiation, May could abandon her red lines & pivot towards one of the other models of deal that has been suggested, perhaps the Norway model or something close to it for a soft Brexit, or whatever Parliament had proposed through its indicative votes.
• If the EU refuses to re-enter negotiations, then a no-deal Brexit at the expiration of the extension, on either Dec. 31st, 2019, or Dec. 31st, 2020, will still be the default outcome. However, May could (& likely would) have consider one of the other options instead, such as holding another referendum or calling an early general election in the hopes of getting a political mandate for her deal. A major event such as a further referendum or change of government could result in a revocation of Article 50 & cancellation of Brexit via Act of Parliament, though this is an option that's unlikely at the moment considering May is still committed to Brexit.

Things to also keep in mind:

• Labour could table another motion of no confidence in the government at any time. If the vote of no confidence is successful & May or any other alternative government couldn't win a new vote of confidence, then an early general election would be called.
• May will once again be eligible for a challenge to her leadership via an internal vote of no confidence from Conservative MP's on Dec. 12th, 2019. At that point, if she were to lose, a Conservative leadership campaign would be triggered which would then result in the appointment of a new PM.
• May could also resign if MPs ever pass a censure motion against her.

[brucejoel99]

If the deal got rejected a third time, then I don't see a short extension happening - or even a No Deal. It would be a long one.

Yes, that's already May's plan.

[brucejoel99]

If the deal is rejected in the 3rd meaningful vote and the EU refuses UK's request for a long extension can May put the deal to the vote for a 4th time before March, 29? And if it's the case will Labour vote for the deal in order to prevent an imminent no-deal Brexit?

She could, yes (presuming the Speaker allows the vote), but if there's an imminent no-deal Brexit, then Labour might very well vote against the deal so as to potentially force a revocation of Article 50.

[brucejoel99]

Another note - the change of date legislation would just be a Statutory Instrument instead of a full Act of Parliament. The former only requires a single vote each in the Commons and the Lords.

Got it, thanks!

[brucejoel99]

As a sidenote, how long does it take for the UK to get a new government once the old one is gone?

If May resigned or lost a confidence vote tomorrow, how long would it take to get a successor?

If it's simply the former, then it'd be a minimum of 6 days (based on the 2016 timeline, at least) before nominations would close & a new leader could take office, but this would only apply to the hypothetical scenario in which a sole candidate were to stand unopposed. If an actual leadership election had to be held, though, then it'd be 10-11 weeks from May's resignation to the announcement of the winner of the Conservative Party members' ballot. Presumably, May would continue in her post as a lame duck while the leadership election is ongoing.

However, if she loses a confidence vote in the Commons, then all bets are off. 2 weeks is the period allowed by the Fixed-term Parliaments Act for the Commons to support a new government after a vote of no confidence; if the Commons doesn't support a new government in those 2 weeks, then an early general election will automatically be held. Furthermore, it depends on just how May's government lost the confidence vote. For example...

• If it was due to Brexiteers voting no confidence in the government until May is out of office, then she might be forced to step down & replaced as Tory leader via the Tory leadership process outlined above: if there's an unopposed candidate, then they're likely the new PM on Day 6 of the two-week period, with the Commons (& Brexiteers) supporting the new government; if there has to be an actual leadership election, though, then perhaps the Commons re-voices its support for May's government before the two-week period ends, with the general understanding that May's a lame duck while the leadership election is ongoing.
• On the other hand, if it was due to the DUP choosing to withdraw confidence & supply, & combine with the opposition parties to force an early general election, then there's definitely gonna be an early general election, which would either have to be fought with a lame duck May (unlikely) or an unopposed leadership candidate (much more likely) as the Tory leader, because there simply wouldn't be enough time for a full leadership election to be held prior to the general election (given the fact that the early general election would be approximately 7 weeks after the vote of no confidence & a full leadership election would take 10-11 weeks, not to mention the fact that'd it be nearly impossible to effectively hold a leadership election simultaneously alongside the general election campaign).
• But then there's always the possibility (unlikely, but possible given May's tenacity) that May would just dig her heels in further after losing the no confidence vote & straight up refuse to stand down, which would still force an early general election but would also ensure that she's still the Tory leader who'd get to fight that election.

[brucejoel99]

Callaghan fought the General Election in 1979 after all.

Yeah, but the difference there is that, even with the Winter of Discontent, there wasn't an internal party revolt against Callaghan, whereas there currently is within the Conservative Party against May. He had the support of his party to fight the election. Could the same be said for May today?

[brucejoel99]

We need to pass the necessary legislation for the EP elections by then anyway.

No legislation necessary. As a precautionary measure, the Electoral Commission has already set aside the necessary funds to deliver their functions for its activities relating to a European parliamentary election, in the event that they do go ahead.

[brucejoel99]

Don't we need to pass secondary legislation?

No, the only secondary legislation that Parliament must pass is the statutory instrument required to change the Brexit date in law before March 29th.

If a scenario occurs in which Britain will be remaining a member of the EU past June 30th, then the (automatic) holding of the EU parliamentary elections is already accounted for under current law & status as a member of the EU.

[brucejoel99]

Is it worth mentioning that petition now has over 4 million signatures?

It only takes 100,000 to have a referendum here, and even factoring in population differences...

100,000 signatures only guarantees that Parliament will consider the petition in a debate, not that a national referendum will take place lol

[brucejoel99]

Is it worth mentioning that petition now has over 4 million signatures?

It only takes 100,000 to have a referendum here, and even factoring in population differences...

100,000 signatures only guarantees that Parliament will consider the petition in a debate, not that a national referendum will take place lol

He's talking about the laws in Switzerland there, not the UK ones.

Ohh ok gotcha, my bad

[brucejoel99]

Apparently Rees-Mogg is now supporting May's deal.

Truly, the ERG's Grand Wizard at his grandest.

[brucejoel99]

Who is likely to replace May as PM?

Whomever a majority of participating Conservative Party members choose to cast their votes for...

In all seriousness, gun to my head, Gove or Johnson are probably (as of right now) the most likely potential candidates to succeed May (in the event that her deal actually gets passed & she does indeed stand down), though that could change on a moment's notice; really, anything can happen.

[brucejoel99]

Britain MUST leave the EU on April 12th. If they have have to be thrown out, then thats absolutely fine with me.

I'm tired of the UK, Brexit, the British government and parliament. JUST LEAVE!

Ahh yes, because never mind the economy & people's jobs & livelihoods, amirite? THEY MUST LEAVE!!       /s

[brucejoel99]

Britain MUST leave the EU on April 12th. If they have have to be thrown out, then thats absolutely fine with me.

I'm tired of the UK, Brexit, the British government and parliament. JUST LEAVE!

They cannot be thrown out if they revoke article 50...the United Kingdom remaining in the EU is the best possible scenario for everyone involved

Britain MUST leave the EU on April 12th. If they have have to be thrown out, then thats absolutely fine with me.

I'm tired of the UK, Brexit, the British government and parliament. JUST LEAVE!

Ahh yes, because never mind the economy & people's jobs & livelihoods, amirite? THEY MUST LEAVE!!       /s

Look, I'm am a strong believer in the EU and I feel that Brexit was a terrible decision.

However, the UK's population did vote to LEAVE the EU and that must be obeyed. I know that there was a lot of misinformation spread in 2015 and 2016 about Brexit but that's just unfortunately a common occurrence in politics especially recently in the age of social media. Also, maybe David Cameron should have thought about that before he scheduled the referendum.

Additionally, both the UK government and UK parliament don't know what they want when it comes to Brexit. There's been just massive chaos and confusion for over the past 2 years and I'm tired of it. The UK MUST leave on April 12th and then deal with whatever the consequences follow.

You're completely disregarding the fact that no deal was never seriously discussed in the referendum, so how can you claim that leaving in two weeks with no deal is the "democratic" outcome?

Seriously, people were told during the referendum campaign that getting a deal would be easy & that the UK would hold all the cards. Options like Norway & Switzerland were thrown around as the viable options by leavers. No one thought that leaving without a deal was a realistic prospect.

However, according to the ardent Brexiteers (& you, evidently), the UK apparently voted to leave come what may, meaning that, deal or no deal, leaving is the only "democratic" outcome.

Now, revoking Article 50 wouldn't be democratic, but neither is leaving without any deal at all. So why insist that no deal on April 12th is the only democratic outcome? Seriously... why?

[brucejoel99]

Britain MUST leave the EU on April 12th. If they have have to be thrown out, then thats absolutely fine with me.

I'm tired of the UK, Brexit, the British government and parliament. JUST LEAVE!

They cannot be thrown out if they revoke article 50...the United Kingdom remaining in the EU is the best possible scenario for everyone involved

Britain MUST leave the EU on April 12th. If they have have to be thrown out, then thats absolutely fine with me.

I'm tired of the UK, Brexit, the British government and parliament. JUST LEAVE!

Ahh yes, because never mind the economy & people's jobs & livelihoods, amirite? THEY MUST LEAVE!!       /s

Look, I'm am a strong believer in the EU and I feel that Brexit was a terrible decision.

However, the UK's population did vote to LEAVE the EU and that must be obeyed. I know that there was a lot of misinformation spread in 2015 and 2016 about Brexit but that's just unfortunately a common occurrence in politics especially recently in the age of social media. Also, maybe David Cameron should have thought about that before he scheduled the referendum.

Additionally, both the UK government and UK parliament don't know what they want when it comes to Brexit. There's been just massive chaos and confusion for over the past 2 years and I'm tired of it. The UK MUST leave on April 12th and then deal with whatever the consequences follow.

You're completely disregarding the fact that no deal was never seriously discussed in the referendum, so how can you claim that leaving in two weeks with no deal is the "democratic" outcome?

Seriously, people were told during the referendum campaign that getting a deal would be easy & that the UK would hold all the cards. Options like Norway & Switzerland were thrown around as the viable options by leavers. No one thought that leaving without a deal was a realistic prospect.

However, according to the ardent Brexiteers (& you, evidently), the UK apparently voted to leave come what may, meaning that, deal or no deal, leaving is the only "democratic" outcome.

Now, revoking Article 50 wouldn't be democratic, but neither is leaving without any deal at all. So why insist that no deal on April 12th is the only democratic outcome? Seriously... why?

Well, then why won't the UK parliament agree to something? Didn't they have indicative votes a couple days ago and ALL of the alternatives were rejected?

Then what do you expect the EU to do? They already gave an extension and they are not going to extend it again if there is no clear plan in sight. The most likely option now is No Deal.

May isn't going for no-deal, plain & simple. Yes, no-deal remains the default for April 12th, but it's not likely, especially since a new extension is agreeable with the EU.

Furthermore, Thursday's indicative votes weren't final. Stage 2 of the indicative votes (which was already set to happen after MV3 in the event of the latter's failure) is on Monday, & we should see some different numbers (& likely a winner too) this time around given that May's deal is now off the table.

Frankly, it's all in the hands of Labour & the SNP now. On Monday, they'll likely unite with the SNP to force May to add at least membership of the Customs Union to the WA, which the EU have implied they will accept.

Regardless, if there's a clear result, then May has to choose whether to accept the consensus plan (she has implied that she could but sounded very skeptical about it). If she does, then the plan is implemented & there's a possible further extension through May 22nd (which the EU have implied they will accept) to allow Parliament to pass the required/necessary Brexit legislation.

However, if there isn't a clear result (or if May chooses to not accept the consensus plan, perhaps even after a proposed runoff between May's deal & the most popular indicative option), it also sounded as if May thinks a long Article 50 extension tied to a general election is a more realistic option than an Article 50 extension tied to a potential indicative votes consensus plan.

Just remember: the mechanism to implement the referendum result has always been the votes of Parliament. There's no other way. That's how it works. That's literally the way a representative democracy such as the UK functions. Parliament voted against no deal. If Parliament doesn't like May's deal as it has been arranged (which they obviously don't), then a new deal should be pursued (as it appears Parliament will finally start to ensure happens on Monday with more indicative votes); if they can agree on a path, then that's what'll happen. If there's still not a majority, then you're right: Parliament has failed; the process will have stalled, & the only alternative will be to have the public vote on a path (as May has implied).

[brucejoel99]

The petition to revoke A50 has just passed 6 million signatures.

I guess a new vote should be held if it gets 17,410,743 real signatures.

Found Andrea Leadsom's Atlas account.

[brucejoel99]

So, after a seven hour cabinet meeting Theresa May said that she wants a short extension to leave with a deal. Not many specifics. The EU had earlier suggested that any further extension would have to be a longer one, but May does not want to take part in the EP elections.

This is 100% just May & Cabinet trying to shift the responsibility for a no-deal Brexit on April 12th to to Labour, since May said it's no-deal unless Labour negotiates responsibly.

[brucejoel99]

I think they should leave on No Deal. That’s what the people voted for.

The people didn't vote for no-deal.

No-deal was never seriously discussed in the referendum. People were told during the referendum campaign that getting a deal would be easy & that the UK would hold all the cards. Options like Norway & Switzerland were thrown around as the viable options by leavers. No one thought that leaving without a deal was a realistic prospect.

So how is leaving with no-deal what the people voted for?

This is the Tories putting their party ahead of the country... this is harder to do in our system,
one reason I don’t like the Parliament system that Canada and the UK have.

It is not hard whatsoever to put party over country here in the US, as the last 3-&-a-1/2 years go to show. Through one audacious & shameless Trump moment after another, Republicans have & will repeatedly put party over country, always willing to rationalize or look the other way.

[brucejoel99]

Cooper amendment passes its third reading by a single vote.

Now the Lords.......

Looks like the government is gonna let it sail through in the Lords; tomorrow's whipping arrangements for Conservative peers is apparently "come if convenient"... that's not *quite* the language of a government preparing for a voting war, now is it? Of course, Tory Brexiteers are still gonna submit a lot of amendments & filibuster to the max, though the expectation is that after a long time & a lot of votes & amendments, there are overwhelming numbers in the Lords to get the Cooper bill passed (at least, after a very long night).

[brucejoel99]

Why did you assume that holding a referendum on the EU membership and/or pushing for leaving the EU could be survived by your party?

Cameron actually thought that it would be the checkmate move that would settle the European question within the Conservative Party for good, routing the 'bastards' and cementing his faction firmly in control for ever in the process.

That one worked out well didn't it.

Something something come at the king, you best not miss.

[brucejoel99]

I doubt it will be a year; six months might end up being the compromise.

But Tusk & Merkel are fully behind a year-long extension, & the French have already dropped their opposition to a year-long extension in exchange for strict conditions being placed on the UK, so my money would be on the European Council agreeing to an extension through March 31, 2020, while granting the UK the ability to leave the EU earlier if the withdrawal agreement is ratified.

[brucejoel99]

So a leadership contest over the summer &, then depending on the winner, a botched no-deal crash out or an extension... greaaaat.

[brucejoel99]

And May continues to hang on, at least for a few more days.

She only needs to hang on a week to beat Gordon Brown's tenure in office.

Guess she's really determined to stay longer than Brown lol

[brucejoel99]

He's gone and done it:

HA!

https://twitter.com/david_cameron/status/595112367358406656?lang=en

[brucejoel99]

It's official.

Westminster voting intention:

LDem: 24% (+6)
Brex: 22% (+4)
Con: 19% (-5)
Lab: 19% (-5)
Grn: 8% (+2)

via @YouGov
Chgs. w/ 17 May

https://twitter.com/Nndroid/status/1133352162493390848