UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, The End of May

[beesley]

So who would you all like to see as Conservative Leader?

[beesley]

So who would you all like to see as Conservative Leader?

I want May to stay, which sadly isn't happening

While it will likely be Boris Johnson, he might be too Eurosceptic for the Conservatives to have a strong appeal

He's the one Labour members fear most.

I doubt many Conservatives who have stuck with it up to this point would bolt under a Boris Premiership - and if they did they'd probably vote Lib Dem rather than Labour. Although his image has changed since, his appeal has proven to be large enough - take his Mayor of London term against Ken Livingstone.

[beesley]

So who would you all like to see as Conservative Leader?

I want May to stay, which sadly isn't happening

While it will likely be Boris Johnson, he might be too Eurosceptic for the Conservatives to have a strong appeal

He's the one Labour members fear most.

I doubt many Conservatives who have stuck with it up to this point would bolt under a Boris Premiership - and if they did they'd probably vote Lib Dem rather than Labour. Although his image has changed since, his appeal has proven to be large enough - take his Mayor of London term against Ken Livingstone.

He is nowhere near as popular now as in his mayoral days - the "Labour fear him" stuff is very passe.

And quite a few of his parliamentary colleagues genuinely despise him.

They're softening. Ultimately I agree he is over hyped but despite the hate he still has a fighting chance against Jeremy Corbyn. None of the others stand out as strongly electable either. I'm not a Conservative member but I know many who are and I don't think there is one issue among them that will decide the next leader (I do live here despite the flag)

My point about him being popular in London is that he does have potential to appeal across the aisle, even if he was less popular. Things can also change. It's strange that people struggle with that concept.

[beesley]

Ben Bradley has got it right imo, have a look at the full thread. The new political division that exists will last at the least until Brexit stops. Just as voters in Mole Valley and Mansfield or Bath and Boston voted for one party but have a different view of things, so too does it affect Labour, losing out to the Greens/Lib Dems./Plaid Cymru in Haringey and Cardiff and the Brexit Party in Hartlepool and Coventry.

https://twitter.com/bbradleymp/status/1132628410675736578 

[beesley]

I'll update my map in the other thread in the Intl Elections subforum, but Boris' campaign launch has been a huge success by the looks of it. I don't know how many were supporting him already, but 12 MPs announced their support for him. Two MPs (Sheryll Murray and Daniel Kawczynski) were allegedly previously supporting someone else.

[beesley]

I'll have an update on the map soon (in the Conservative Election thread in Intl Elections) - but worth saying Theresa May has now resigned, and nominations are open.

According to my data, the following candidates have yet to get the nominations they need:

Mark Harper
Andrea Leadsom
Rory Stewart
Esther McVey
Sam Gyimah

[beesley]

Posting here too -



Includes today's ream of endorsements for Boris and tomorrow's Rudd endorsement for Hunt and Bradley endorsement for Gove.

Nominations close tomorrow - can the underdogs get on the ballot?

[beesley]

Daily update - from the other thread. At the close of nominations.

[beesley]

We're getting close to the Boris Johnson/ Jeremy Corbyn general election that we all dreamed and memed

So fiercely xenophobic bigot who supports Brexit and has shown pro-Putin sympathies vs. fiercely anti-Semitic bigot who supports Brexit and has shown pro-Putin sympathies?  

LibDems it is, I suppose

You joke but a Johnson vs Corbyn match up could really let the LibDems in with a frightening amount of (poorly vetted) MPs

Not a Lib Dem by any means, but they seem to be the party that is least affected by the problem of poor MPs/problems resulting from vetting procedures.

[beesley]

The day before the first ballot - here's how things stand.

[beesley]

We're getting close to the Boris Johnson/ Jeremy Corbyn general election that we all dreamed and memed

So fiercely xenophobic bigot who supports Brexit and has shown pro-Putin sympathies vs. fiercely anti-Semitic bigot who supports Brexit and has shown pro-Putin sympathies?  

LibDems it is, I suppose

You joke but a Johnson vs Corbyn match up could really let the LibDems in with a frightening amount of (poorly vetted) MPs

Not a Lib Dem by any means, but they seem to be the party that is least affected by the problem of poor MPs/problems resulting from vetting procedures.

They did run Rabina Khan in the EU elections though, i.e. the former protege of the notoriously corrupt and crypto-islamist mayor of tower hamlets Luftur Rahman.

True. They also had David Ward, an awful MP. But on the whole I think they've done well at selecting candidates - take Wera Hobhouse and Layla Moran in Westminster for example. The 2010 intake was also pretty strong - Julian Huppert, Tessa Munt and Gordon Birtwistle for example. I don't agree with either of them on much but they are strong MPs.

[beesley]

 

Final declarations/estimate - add a few MPs to each candidate for an accurate reading. 15 mins we'll see how right we were!

[beesley]

Ahead of the second ballot.

So, apparently Boris Johnson is the favourite for the Conservative leadership election.

After looking at his district, it doesn't seem like a particularly safe district. He "only" won it by 10 while the Conservatives were winning by 2 points nationally. Hypothetically, on a Labour wave on the scale of 2001 Johnson could lose; and with the chaos of Brexit who knows what will happen.

Any chance Johnson loses his seat in the next election? It is a 57% Leave seat though, so I guess that makes it safer?

Depends - I don't think a Labour victory of that scale is likely. It's number 83 on the Labour target list too. Hillingdon has been a better borough for the Conservatives, so I don't think its likely, but making projections in British politics at the moment could be unwise. He is however the most vulnerable of the leadership contenders.

[beesley]

Labour failed to win a single seat in Johnson's constituency in last year's local elections, so he is quite possibly safer than he looks even before any possible "leader's bounce" is factored in (though having said that, two years ago neither May or Farron got one - indeed the latter nearly lost)

Back on the immediate topic, much excited talk in the last 24 hours of a "Stewart surge". He might have done enough to stay in it after today's result is announced - but beyond that I remain sceptical.

Hancock's supporters have split between Rory and Boris - Green, Crouch, Bowie and Hancock himself going for Boris, Lidington, Spelman, James, and Masterton going for Stewart. Raab and Gove have no new supporters.

[beesley]

The main reason Labour didn't win Uxbridge in the 1997 byelection was messing their own selection up. Their candidate at the GE that year would very likely have taken it for them, but Blair became paranoid because they had a few leftish inclinations and made sure his own choice (an outsider) was de facto imposed. Tories then reacted to that by picking a genuinely local candidate, a rare instance of quick wittedness from them in those dog days (despite the fact a number of ex-MPs/ministers went for the selection)

The same control freakery on a larger scale would cost Mr Tony in Wales and London come the next few years.

Does that explain the heavy losses for Eileen Gordon and Keith Darvill in 2001?

[beesley]

Not really, given that Labour generally did well in the capital then despite the previous year's events.

That was a distinctly localised thing (Labour were run close in Hornchurch as well) and the party's subsequent decline in Havering has been pretty precipitous.

Yes, in other parts of London seats Labour had gained in 1997 often swung further to Labour in 2001, in some cases quite strikingly (e.g. Brent North).

I seem to remember that in 2015, only Mitcham and Morden and Ilford South were better for Labour than they were in 1997 - but in 2017, there were loads of seats (Kensington and Chipping Barnet were the obvious ones), and so the fact that Romford wasn't one must show how the area's changed, as per your view.

[beesley]

All Labour MPs have been asked to signal their intention to stand again (or not.) Jim Fitzpatrick (Poplar and Limehouse) and Ronnie Campbell (Blyth Valley) have already announced their intention to stand down.

Some MPs are at risk of being deselected. Kate Hoey, Roger Godsiff and Virendra Sharma look the most likely (Hoey for voting with the government on Brexit, Godsiff for his Anderton Park incident, Sharma for being a bad MP,) but Peter Kyle, Angela Eagle, Alison McGovern, Kerry McCarthy, Catherine McKinnell, Darren Jones, Neil Coyle, Wes Streeting, Barry Sheerman, Vicky Foxcroft, Louise Ellman (likely standing down anyway), Anna Turley, Helen Goodman, Shabana Mahmood, Liam Byrne (also likely to stand down), Liz Kendall, Paul Williams and Jo Platt are also potential candidates, although of course some of these are far less likely. Some of the likeliest candidates for this left to join CHUK/TIG (Joan Ryan and Gavin Shuker.)

[beesley]

Chris Leslie was also a dead cert for deselection.

(not least because he hardly ever visited his constituency, according to at least some accounts)

Some of those you list are actually pretty safe barring a total meltdown of non-Corbynism in the party.

It wasn't a list of people who were likely to be deselected, moreso those who could face selection battles. Most of them would win.

Chris Leslie was understandable since I don't think local members ever warmed to him that much - he was parachuted after losing Shipley anyway.

The reality is that selection issues are mostly about ambitions and egos - everything else simply provides a pretext. So the critical issue in most cases would be whether there are serious contenders lurking around who fancy their chances.

Exactly. There are rumours of battles for MPs like Foxcroft because it's possible someone credible could challenge her. Likewise, Virendra Sharma will face a selection battle because therei s bound to be someone more interested in actually representing the people of Southall than he is.

[beesley]

There is a big difference between Chris Williamson and the #GTTO cultists on social media like Rachel Swindon than people with similar beliefs to Corbyn like Naz Shah, who made an effort to reevaluate her stance. That's why this is a terrible decision.

[beesley]

Another Brexiter Labour standing down, and probably the most infamous at that: Kate Hoey.

Good riddance. I'm pleased for her constituents & CLP who deserve an actual Labour MP representing them.

Though I reckon she'll be joining the Brexit Party now?

If Kate Hoey isn't 'an actual Labour MP' because of her stance on one issue, then neither was Jeremy Corbyn from 1983-2016. Yes it is the most important issue in a generation, and her constituents were right to push for someone who would better represent their views, but she is still a leftwing person - it's a bit like saying Joe Crowley isn't a Democrat even though his values were largely the same.

I realise your comment wasn't that literal, but one of the things I dislike about Brexit is that the political axis now hinges around a temporary Issue. Politicians hide behind their views on Brexit.

Time for you Brits to feel our pain: 

Fears grow over Boris Johnson win as Hunt challenge fades

You're about to get your own version of Donald Trump, and this time with a British accent.

Say what you like about Boris Johnson, and living here, I would prefer Jeremy Hunt, but this is a pretty shallow take.

[beesley]

Another Brexiter Labour standing down, and probably the most infamous at that: Kate Hoey.

Good riddance. I'm pleased for her constituents & CLP who deserve an actual Labour MP representing them.

Though I reckon she'll be joining the Brexit Party now?

If Kate Hoey isn't 'an actual Labour MP' because of her stance on one issue, then neither was Jeremy Corbyn from 1983-2016. Yes it is the most important issue in a generation, and her constituents were right to push for someone who would better represent their views, but she is still a leftwing person - it's a bit like saying Joe Crowley isn't a Democrat even though his values were largely the same.

I realise your comment wasn't that literal, but one of the things I dislike about Brexit is that the political axis now hinges around a temporary Issue. Politicians hide behind their views on Brexit.

Hoey is nothing like Crowley at all.

Crowley was a rather generic liberal from a machine, who was being groomed/preparing to run for the leadership, and thus spend his whole time in D.C, within that bubble.

Hoey is a constituency MP through and through (who's office has a reputation for great constituency service) and has a voting record that's more typical to some of the old culturally conservative Labour MPs (anti-Iraq, anti-tuition fees, anti- EU).

That wasn't really the point I was making - I was criticising the people who argued Crowley wasn't a Democrat bc he wasn't AOC. I agree with you on Hoey being a good constituency MP.