UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, The End of May

[CumbrianLefty]

On paper, even if the entire May cabinet (minus may herself of course) resigned, May could stay as PM right?

Just name new cabinet ministers, I guess there will be at least a dozen tories willing to go down with her. If necessary, she could even appoint them from the House of Lords? (where they wouldn't even need to worry for reelection)

Its a non starter. Even if she is now deranged enough to want to carry on in those circumstances (and she could be, apparently she is burbling on about there being "massive support" out there "in the country" for her Brexit deal - it scored 12% in the recent ComRes poll) her party - never mind anybody else - would not wear it. And if all else failed, the monarch would likely have a quiet word?

[CumbrianLefty]

But obviously the idea of couping May should make absolutely zero sense to any vaguely sentient member of cabinet when one considers that they have no mechanism to force her out if she refuses to resign. And even if she did, they have no agreed upon candidate. And even if they had an agreed upon candidate it's impossible to see how they wouldn't split the party or even command support from the membership...like, this is the absolute worst example of ministers playing leadership politics instead of actually grappling with the political realities facing the government and country.

But if, as recent reports suggest, she is prepared to plunge this country into the abyss of no deal rather than compromise with parliament - then what exactly is the alternative?

Stopping that currently takes priority over all else IMO.

[CumbrianLefty]

The political damage would be too great, really.

People making comparisons with Labour in mid 2016 ignore some key differences:

1) most obviously, Corbyn was in opposition not government;
2) Not all his SC walked out, some key figures stayed loyal enabling him to hang on;
3) maybe most fundamentally, he never owed his position to MPs in the first place - rather the party membership. Don't forget, May has never been voted for by a single Tory party member who is not an MP - another illustration of how "coronations" are rarely a good idea in the long run?

[CumbrianLefty]

3. Agree. A full leadership contest would have exposed her delivery flaws and allowed them to be worked on ahead of a general election.

Brown also came to regret not having a proper contest in 2007, of course.

[CumbrianLefty]

But obviously the idea of couping May should make absolutely zero sense to any vaguely sentient member of cabinet when one considers that they have no mechanism to force her out if she refuses to resign. And even if she did, they have no agreed upon candidate. And even if they had an agreed upon candidate it's impossible to see how they wouldn't split the party or even command support from the membership...like, this is the absolute worst example of ministers playing leadership politics instead of actually grappling with the political realities facing the government and country.

Agreed, I think May is the closest thing the Tories have right now to a figure who's more or less acceptable to both Remainer and Leaver Tories. Anyone else would just make the divisions worse.

That was the case in 2016, but she is arguably now equally mistrusted by both sides?

[CumbrianLefty]

Also would the tory membership have backed Leadsom? I think she would have faired far worse.

Not likely, but possible.

[CumbrianLefty]

The only reason May was able to cling onto the premiership is no one likes the thought of touching a rooting corpse.

Cynics are suggesting the "coup" only filled the Sunday paper front pages in order to distract from the huge pro-EU demo on Saturday. But it is possible the mere talk of it has been enough to make no deal significantly less likely.

[CumbrianLefty]

Apparently Rees-Mogg is now supporting May's deal.

Door. Stable. Horse. Bolted.

[CumbrianLefty]

Even if the ERG swing en masse behind the deal (unlikely in itself) that will likely just prompt others on the anti hard Brexit wing of the Tories to withhold their support. After all, they have a real chance of something more to their liking being passed now.

[CumbrianLefty]

Looks like it is being brought back for a third time nonetheless.

Likely on Friday, the day we were meant to exit the EU.

[CumbrianLefty]

Does this not just come down to how many pro-Brexit LAB MPs and/or LAB MPs that represent pro-Brexit district will defect over and vote for the May plan?  My impression is that while there are a bloc of pro-Brexit LAB voters this topic if not what is important to them which means I think the number of LAB MPs that might defect could be quite small.

We keep being told that a load of such MPs will arrive over the hill and save May's deal.

It never happens, though.

The only chance of it occurring would be if it really *was* a straight choice between her deal and no deal. However that is still not the case.

[CumbrianLefty]

May Said to Say She Will Step Down Once Brexit Delivered

Her actual form of words was apparently vaguer than some of the initial reports suggested.

Shocking given May's previous record, I know.......

[CumbrianLefty]

Everything failed, Ken Clarke's customs union came closest losing 272-264. Confirmatory vote lost 295-268. Norway plus lost 283-188. Norway without customs union lost 377-65. No deal lost 400-160. Revoke Article 50 lost 293-184, and Malthouse lost 422-139. What a debacle.

Widely expected, though. And at least one of those votes is close enough to work on.

[CumbrianLefty]

No deal duly crushed, how many non-Tory MPs supported it? I expect not many.

[CumbrianLefty]

No deal duly crushed, how many non-Tory MPs supported it? I expect not many.

Ronnie Campbell, Kate Hoey and Dennis Skinner.

Just those three, nobody in the DUP or anything?

[CumbrianLefty]

Apparently the "justification" some ERGers are providing for swinging behind May's deal is "vote for it, get her out, and then a successor more in our mould will just rip it up anyway".

Absolutely brilliant, foolproof plan there. Can't see any downside to that at all

[CumbrianLefty]

Looks like the second referendum backers cleverly moved to kill off a soft Brexit today. Customs union motion was defeated by SNP abstaining, TIG voting against and 8 People's Vote Labour MPs abstaning/voting against. They've maneuvered the Kyle-Wilson "confirmatory public vote" into pole position among the Remain faction in parliament.

Well the only way it is going to pass is if significantly more Tories vote for it, given that there is a hard core of opponents in Labour who are basically unwhippable.

D'ya feel lucky, punk?

[CumbrianLefty]

Thing is, there was a big majority for some sort of "soft" Brexit in the immediate aftermath of June 2016. But then May waded in with her ridiculous "red lines" and the ERG brigade got giddy at the idea of no deal being a golden opportunity for US-style disaster capitalism.

They are the ones really to blame for the present impasse, not "remoaners".

[CumbrianLefty]

I can assure you the EU doesn't want no deal either.

(even if they are prepared for it is necessary, almost certainly more so than the UK is)

[CumbrianLefty]

As pointed out many times before, no deal is the "default" option when we leave in the absence of any agreement (and that remains so even if the date has been pushed back a few weeks)

Yes, most people don't want it. But as long as the above remains the case, the possibility of going into it "by accident" remains. So the coming week is going to be a pretty pivotal one.

[CumbrianLefty]

Not the name I'd have used...

That means there's the real possibility that Labour will be the only parliamentary without a female leader, depending on how long May holds out for.

Which merely shows how meaningless such a "stat" would be.

Labour would still have the most female MPs by a long way, and probably the most women in senior roles compared to all the other parties. What matters more, strength in depth or the figurehead at the top?? And that's even without considering what Labour might do for women if in government.

It would be nice btw if Labour "moderates" stopped playing identity politics blackmail over this. We aren't going to support somebody as leader *just* because they are female (or indeed non-white) We will gladly do so if such a candidate offers things that the membership actually want.

[CumbrianLefty]

Fwiw it’s hard to argue that the Labour Party, nor the party membership doesn’t have some sort of inbuild problem with electing a female leader considering that in the 2015 selection you had a hard left man, a soft left man and an old right man beat female candidates from the left, soft left and right of the party.

And ofc it’s not as if any faction has a monopoly on purity- Brown treated Harriet Harman awfully, and his staff were hideously blokely, but equally there’s a reason why McDonell and co talk up Rebecca Long Bailey, Pidock and others as the next leader- because everyone knows it’s going to most likely be a female leader next.

Cooper and (especially) Kendall did badly in 2015 because they were too right wing, not because they were women. A woman was Watson's strongest challenger then as well (and I voted for her)

Rayner is IMO more likely to be the next leader than RLB, and Pidcock is still too young (unless Jez goes on even longer than his most fervent fans expect)

[CumbrianLefty]

Of course, we have had two female Scottish leaders.

It is not unfair comment that neither were exactly a roaring success.

I like Starmer, but I certainly would think Thornberry is ahead of him in the queue right now. Partly that is because she *is* indeed a woman who might be acceptable to a left leaning membership.

(as far as the 2015 London mayoral vote is concerned, its not as if the winner was a white man is it)

[CumbrianLefty]

Actually I was being "unfair" to Scottish Labour in my above post, they have had *3* women leaders. The third being Wendy Alexander, who was in post for about 15 minutes before being forced out in what was (and even appeared to be at the time) a totally footling non-"scandal".

This could really be one of those "sliding doors" moments - given a chance she might have saved the party in Scotland to at least some degree. As it was, her successor Iain Gray was one of the worst party leaders this country has seen in living memory, and undoubtedly helped along the first big SNP breakthrough in 2011.

[CumbrianLefty]

Oh dear, re some of the above posts we aren't back to "nasty Corbyn won't press his magic STOP BREXIT button" are we?? In case anybody has missed it, most Labour MPs including their leader voted for a second referendum this week. And got called traitors by the Mail and Sun for not supporting May's wretched deal.