UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, The End of May

[Lumine]

There are reports that a large part of the Cabinet is finally in revolt, and planning to secure May's resignation next week. Among other things, the Whips have alledgedly told her she has to go, the 1922 Committee may be considering a non-binding vote of confidence, and within the Cabinet there's talk of installing a unity candidate as a caretaker PM to secure a long extension and preside over a leadership contest in a few months.

Some reports say David Lidington could be the "unity "candidate, others say it could be Michael Gove.

[Lumine]

The Conservatives are literally crashing down on the polls, and not just for the EU elections.

It seems ComRes will release a GE poll tomorrow which has them on 23% (!) and Farage's Brexit Party right at their heels with 14%.

[Lumine]

May has sacked Gavin Williamson (Defence) over the Huawei leak. Mordaunt has been promoted to Defence Sec, Rory Stewart takes her place in International Development.

[Lumine]

May and the 1922 Committee met today. She won a stay of execution until the first week of June (at which point the EU withdrawal agreement bill is to be voted in May's final gamble), after which she is to meet with Graham Brady and "set the timetable for her departure".

I can't see how on earth the withdrawal bill will pass (Conservative resistance is hardening, Labour-Government talks seem to be going nowhere), so it seems she might finally (finally!) go after losing that vote.

[Lumine]

May and the 1922 Committee met today. She won a stay of execution until the first week of June (at which point the EU withdrawal agreement bill is to be voted in May's final gamble), after which she is to meet with Graham Brady and "set the timetable for her departure".

I can't see how on earth the withdrawal bill will pass (Conservative resistance is hardening, Labour-Government talks seem to be going nowhere), so it seems she might finally (finally!) go after losing that vote.

If May goes, does that mean that a snap election will occur?

Seems very unlikely. Tory MP's will not vote for one now that their polling has crashed because they'd be wiped out, and no VONC is likely to pass since Change UK will not vote for one yet (they would also be wiped out and their new party is falling to pieces) and the DUP appears to hold out hope for the next Tory leader.

As to what might happen if a Hard Brexiteer PM tried to push a no-deal Brexit and a VONC was called that's harder to tell.

Given the unworkable numbers of the House an election - or referendum - will be neccesary at some point, certainly far earlier than the last possible date in 2022.

[Lumine]

A few minutes in and May's offer is already backfiring hard. Up a dozen Tory MP's who voted for MV3, Labour MP's the government was hoping to convince (like Nandy) and the DUP are coming out strongly against.

Barring a miracle she's going to lose this by an epic margin with a full blown Tory revolt.

[Lumine]

Things are getting worse for May, it seems there's a Cabinet revolt in progress (Mundell, Mordaunt, some are saying Javid, Hunt and others) over the "new deal" and particularly the prospect of a second referendum being included if MP's vote for one. Uncertain if they're trying to kill the vote or outright telling her to go now.

I suspect they'll screw it up as always, but it should be an interesting day.

[Lumine]

Madness and stupidity from them. They should have stormed Downing Street and forced an unconditional resignation, it literally helps no one (particulary the cabinet candidates for PM) to continue this farce.

[Lumine]

Andrea Leadsom has resigned from the Cabinet.

[Lumine]

It's confirmed, Ummuna, Allen and four others quit Change UK, Soubry becomes leader of what's left of the party (which is going to make David Owen's infamous continuity SDP look like a huge succes).

(And Cleverly has quit the leadership race, was self-aware enough to realize he was going nowhere)

[Lumine]

Why would Remainers back Boris?

they want a ministerial car?

Conservative MP's seem to be under the (dangerous) delusion that he is somehow popular with the electorate and would "save their seats" in an eventual General Election. That, the opportunism associated with the fact that he seems like the likely winner, and of course, Boris's own exhaustive manuevers to portray himself as moderate (and "One Nation") in a number of issues.

Johnson has shown a remarkable ability not to face the consequences of some of his acts (like his beyond incompetent performance as Foreign Secretary or his own drug use, issue which appears to be sinking Gove but not affecting him), but I'd expecting to crash and burn early as Prime Minister.