PPP: Generic D 52, Trump 41

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP: Mar. 13-14, 661 RV

Trump 41
Democratic opponent 52

[Zaybay]

Approval is 42/54 in this poll. Its starting to become rather clear that Trump's approval almost equals his vote share.

[pbrower2a]

PPP: Mar. 13-14, 661 RV

Trump 41
Democratic opponent 52

It's beginning to look like a Carter-style collapse.

[Matty]

Sigh.....

Generic D is undefeated in elections in American history

Why don’t you guys go back and look at what GE polling was saying at this time in 2015?

It was a Hillary rout against every candidate declared

“Generic D” allows poll respondents to fill in whatever they think that means

Arch progressives will thin it means sanders and socialism

National security wonks will think it means their candidate

Rural white dems will think Biden or Jim Webb or something

The actual D candidate will be someone with specific views that might not appeal to loads of people who would want a “generic D”

Try polling generic R in Orange County in 2015

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Sigh.....

Generic D is undefeated in elections in American history

Why don’t you guys go back and look at what GE polling was saying at this time in 2015?

It was a Hillary rout against every candidate declared

“Generic D” allows poll respondents to fill in whatever they think that means

Arch progressives will thin it means sanders and socialism

National security wonks will think it means their candidate

Rural white dems will think Biden or Jim Webb or something

The actual D candidate will be someone with specific views that might not appeal to loads of people who would want a “generic D”

Try polling generic R in Orange County in 2015

Yep, this is all true.

No matter who the nominee is, it's unlikely they'll be able to 100% unite everyone who would vote for a "Generic Democrat" behind them. a candidate like that simply doesn't exist.

[Matty]

And no I am not saying that trump will win re-election

What I am saying is that if current economic strength holds (up in air at moment), I think he will get over 230 electoral votes at least,  which would be around a 4% PV loss

It’s toigh for me to see him lose by 11

[Karpatsky]

Someone needs to get this 'Generic D' guy into the race ASAP.

Seriously, the greatest electoral asset of the Republican party in its current form is its media machine. Any actual Democratic candidate will endure months if not more than a year of constant smearing and attacks before the election, so these numbers are not particularly meaningful.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems already said they arent sacrificing like Hilary CLINTON did last time OH for the upper midwest, but Harris and Colorado's Bennet or HICKENLOOPER is probably the nomination

[Progressive Pessimist]

Can we build generic D in a lab and run them everywhere, please?

[pbrower2a]

Sigh.....

Generic D is undefeated in elections in American history

Why don’t you guys go back and look at what GE polling was saying at this time in 2015?

It was a Hillary rout against every candidate declared

“Generic D” allows poll respondents to fill in whatever they think that means

Arch progressives will thin it means sanders and socialism

National security wonks will think it means their candidate

Rural white dems will think Biden or Jim Webb or something

The actual D candidate will be someone with specific views that might not appeal to loads of people who would want a “generic D”

Try polling generic R in Orange County in 2015

"Generic Democrat" and "Generic Republican" mysteriously go into hibernation as primary season begins, and do not emerge from slumber until Inauguration Day.

Donald Trump succeeded at so debasing American politics that people other than his supporters thought politics a soiling experience, and cutting the electorate is one way to improve the chances of any Republican. Hillary Clinton was not a good counter to that. She stayed at the adult level, and he reached for the basest, most primitive drives. That might not work quite so well this time.

Trump is now a known entity, and in most elections that is good for re-election. The problem arises: few Americans like him. Those who do fanatically support him, but winning an election depends on winning people who aren't such fanatical supporters.

Trump still has one ace up his sleeve: consummately ruthless, he will stop at nothing. badly as his polling is, and not being up to the job, he can win an election in 2020 -- if it is rigged.

[President Johnson]

41% for a sitting president is disastrous. And he isn't polling much better against actual names.

[pbrower2a]

41% for a sitting president is disastrous. And he isn't polling much better against actual names.

52% of the vote for a Democrat is about what Obama did in 2008. 41% of the vote for an incumbent is what Carter did in 1980. Either way is a GOP disaster. The average is 427 electoral votes, which means that Trump loses everything that he lost in 2016, won by less than 10%, and perhaps such a combination as Indiana and Montana or Missouri and Kansas.

But Trump is himself a disaster, and his policies could hardly be better designed to hurt people. He will get the votes of economic sadists and economic masochists, to be sure.

[Skunk]

Yeah this doesn't mean anything.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Approval is 42/54 in this poll. Its starting to become rather clear that Trump's approval almost equals his vote share.

That's what happens 99% of the time with incumbent presidents.

[pbrower2a]

Approval is 42/54 in this poll. Its starting to become rather clear that Trump's approval almost equals his vote share.

That's what happens 99% of the time with incumbent presidents.

The last three Presidents never had numbers like that in their first terms.

[slothdem]

Approval is 42/54 in this poll. Its starting to become rather clear that Trump's approval almost equals his vote share.

That's what happens 99% of the time with incumbent presidents.

The last three Presidents never had numbers like that in their first terms.

What he means is that incumbent President's vote share closely mirrors their approval rating when they run for re-election. Which is true. I'll be worried about Trump winning if he gets his average up to about 46%, since I think he probably needs 47% of the pop vote to win.

[pbrower2a]

Don't sweat the approval: it is the disapproval that will kill his re-election bid (barring a fix, which at this point looks more likely than an honest win for President Trump).

[Hammy]

Should PPP even be taken seriously anymore after their hard D bias over the last few election cycles?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Should PPP even be taken seriously anymore after their hard D bias over the last few election cycles?

Statements like that are what's hard to take seriously.  If you ACTUALLY LOOK AT THE RECORD, PPP has been close to neutral the last few cycles (538 has had them oscillate between a very slight D bias and a very slight R bias).  They're actually one of Trump's better pollsters for approval ratings, and were one of the Republicans' better ones for 2018 generic ballot polls.

[Hammy]

Should PPP even be taken seriously anymore after their hard D bias over the last few election cycles?

Statements like that are what's hard to take seriously.  If you ACTUALLY LOOK AT THE RECORD, PPP has been close to neutral the last few cycles (538 has had them oscillate between a very slight D bias and a very slight R bias).  They're actually one of Trump's better pollsters for approval ratings, and were one of the Republicans' better ones for 2018 generic ballot polls.

Am I confusing them with someone else? There was a supposed gold standard pollster (I'm almost certain it was PPP) that, in both cycles, showed the Dems doing well in states they ended up losing, in several cases being off by 5+ points.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Should PPP even be taken seriously anymore after their hard D bias over the last few election cycles?

Statements like that are what's hard to take seriously.  If you ACTUALLY LOOK AT THE RECORD, PPP has been close to neutral the last few cycles (538 has had them oscillate between a very slight D bias and a very slight R bias).  They're actually one of Trump's better pollsters for approval ratings, and were one of the Republicans' better ones for 2018 generic ballot polls.

Am I confusing them with someone else? There was a supposed gold standard pollster (I'm almost certain it was PPP) that, in both cycles, showed the Dems doing well in states they ended up losing, in several cases being off by 5+ points.

Well, let's find some data.  For national GE polls in 2016, their last few polls in the RCP database were:

6/27-6/28: Clinton+4
7/29-7/30: Clinton+5
8/26-8/28: Clinton+5
9/27-9/28: Clinton+4

The final RCP average was Clinton+3.2%; the actual PV margin was Clinton+2.1%.  For state level polls, the last PPP ones I can find were just before Election Day and had Clinton+5 in each of CO, MI, and VA.  This was very close in CO (actual result +4.9%) and VA (+5.3%) but missed in MI (-0.2%).  Except for MI (a state which pretty much everyone missed), these results look quite decent, and even MI was within the margin of error. 

According to Wikipedia, PPP was also off significantly in a number of 2016 swing states (FL, NH, NC, OH, PA, WI), although it should be noted that state-level polling in general was shaky in 2016.  According to the same article, in the 2012 cycle "PPP correctly called the winner of the presidential election in all 19 states it polled in the final week of the election, as well as the winners of all the U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races it surveyed."

[RJ]

Can we build generic D in a lab and run them everywhere, please?

You know, I question this term "generic Democrat.' Does this really exist? By the time the campaigning starts "generic" has really lost its zest.

I'm trying to find certain household names or those with some recognition but here's what I consider some politicians I might describe as "generic democrats":

-Joe Biden
-Beto O'Rourke
-Amy Klobachar

And, for that matter, a few "generic" Republicans:

-Mike Pence
-John Kasich
-Mitt Romney

Feel free to tear my lists apart...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Can we build generic D in a lab and run them everywhere, please?

You know, I question this term "generic Democrat.' Does this really exist? By the time the campaigning starts "generic" has really lost its zest.

I'm trying to find certain household names or those with some recognition but here's what I consider some politicians I might describe as "generic democrats":

-Joe Biden
-Beto O'Rourke
-Amy Klobachar

And, for that matter, a few "generic" Republicans:

-Mike Pence
-John Kasich
-Mitt Romney

Feel free to tear my lists apart...

I'd question Pence (too much of a religious right type) but otherwise pretty good lists.

[SnowLabrador]

Can we build generic D in a lab and run them everywhere, please?

You know, I question this term "generic Democrat.' Does this really exist? By the time the campaigning starts "generic" has really lost its zest.

I'm trying to find certain household names or those with some recognition but here's what I consider some politicians I might describe as "generic democrats":

-Joe Biden
-Beto O'Rourke
-Amy Klobachar

And, for that matter, a few "generic" Republicans:

-Mike Pence
-John Kasich
-Mitt Romney

Feel free to tear my lists apart...

I'd question Pence (too much of a religious right type) but otherwise pretty good lists.

Religious right is generic Republican, though.