Which race are Democrats more likely to win?

[MT Treasurer]

According to 538, Wyoming is the most elastic deep red state with an elasticity score of 1.08 while Georgia is the second most inelastic red state (after AL, obviously) with an elasticity score of just 0.90.

As of Sep. 6, 2018: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-house-districts-that-swing-the-most-and-least-with-the-national-mood/

With this important data point in mind, which race do you consider more winnable for Democrats?

Because I’m aware that this topic may be highly contentious, I’d appreciate it if you tried to incorporate hard-hitting arguments pertaining to scientific concepts other than elasticity/inelasticity, i.e., polarization, incumbency advantage, retail politics, candidate quality, etc. in your analysis.

Thank you.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GA due the high African-American turnout; and Abrams would run if Harris is in Oval Office due to an R prez in 2028 or a Dem Veep winning in 2028

[LoneStarDem]

I'm going with neither.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

I'm going with neither.

LOL

[SnowLabrador]

Georgia, but not by much. Reason being that the new GA voting machines are rigged to let the Republicans win.

[S019]

GA, because it is a Lean R state, while Wyoming is Safe R


Today, even Dave Freudenthal would lose by double digits in Wyoming, he would do worse than Bredesen in a gubernatorial race

[OSR stands with Israel]

a Democrat would win statewide in Arkansas before they even hit 45% in WY

[Xing]

Lean Wyoming, but Democrats are more likely to clear 70% in both than to come within single digits of winning Iowa.

[MT Treasurer]

a Democrat would win statewide in Arkansas before they even hit 45% in WY

WY is more elastic than GA, we all know that’s all that counts, no? Same reason IA is far more likely to flip in 2020 than TX.

[OSR stands with Israel]

a Democrat would win statewide in Arkansas before they even hit 45% in WY

WY is more elastic than GA, we all know that’s all that counts, no? Same reason IA is far more likely to flip in 2020 than TX.

Not isnt lol: Here are the results of WY(2004-2016) to GA(2004-2016)

WY:

2004: R+39.8
2008: R+32.2
2012: R+40.8
2016: R+45.8

GA:


2004: R+16.6
2008: R+5.2
2012: R+7.8
2016: R+5.16

Now even if you look at Gubernatorial Races from 2002-2018:

WY:
2006: D+40
2010: R+42.8
2014: R+32.1
2018: R+39.6

GA:

2006: R+29.7
2010: R+10
2014: R+7.8
2018: R+1.4


The only big shift in WY was 2006-2010 and that was basically cause  no A, B or even C list  Republican candidate even ran in 2006 

[Progressive Pessimist]

Georgia for sure. Though it isn't clear whether Georgia will finally be ready to flip Democratic by then though, it still might take a little longer.