Virginia Redistricting with Anti-Gerrymandering Amendment

[Frodo]

Let's suppose that One Virginia 2021 gets its way, and we have a new constitutional amendment ratified by Virginia voters that bans partisan gerrymandering at every level, from congressional redistricting to state legislative redistricting.

How would the map look, bearing in mind Virginia could gain an extra congressional district (according to the Election Data Services)?  What would be the partisan balance in the General Assembly with districts drawn by citizen commissions?  What's your best guess?

Here are the congressional districts:



And the current partisan balance in the General Assembly:

House of Delegates

Republicans: 51
Democrats: 49

Senate

Republicans: 21
Democrats: 19

[Oryxslayer]

Well, what likely happens is that once Dems get control in 2019, they 'edit' the wording of the Redistricting law is it shifts the biased towards them and the parts that will only continue to get blue with the state. This not only set the restarts constitutional change clock (giving dems free reign in 2021), but ensures blue lines in the future.

But back to the main question. NOVA (Loudon, Fairfax, PW) Has more then 3 districts Pop, so any map drawn in this scenario has three safe blue seats right there. There needs to be a SW and a Shanandoah Pub seat, and two BVAP seats down in the Southside/Tidewater/Capital region. What you are really left with then are the present VA-01, VA-02, VA-05, VA-07. VA-02 cannot change much, but it can be anywhere from D+5 to R+5 depending on if Norfolk or Chesapeake get in the seat, and how may dems/reps are not.


This leaves usq with the Capital based VA-07, the Northern/Chesapeake VA-01, and the the Southside VA-05. Depending on how things are configured, all could be republican or VA-07 could be Safe Dem - if it eats Charlottesville. Under a Gerry Map, VA-01 could also be blue, buts thats not here or there. Under the Amendment, Its likely the state goes 3-0 pubs her with VA-02 as close to partisan balanced  as one can get, or have two swing seats in VA-07 and VA-02, giving us 5 dems and 4 reps, 2 swing.

[Frodo]

Any more takers?

[Strudelcutie4427]

5 R, 5 D, 1 T (Depending on how you rate the VA Beach district)

[Nyvin]

The Democrats really shouldn't pass it.   Virginia is one of the few states where Democrats can really benefit from gerrymandering and it can serve as a counterweight to maps drawn in Texas, Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina.

[slothdem]

5 R, 5 D, 1 T (Depending on how you rate the VA Beach district)

This map would be a good compromise under an R court, but I don't think it will work on the 2020 population numbers, as the growth in the state has been so uneven. The SW seat needs to expand and the Nova seats will need to contract. Also, as a parochial concern, the Western VA delegates really don't like splitting up the Valley. I think a more realistic plan would be to keep the Valley whole and then give Charlottesville/Albemarle to the green district, which will have the benefit of making another competitive district and better reflect the partisan balance of the state. Actually, if you made that change I think that would probably be as good an example of a fair map as you could make.