PA 2020 House Ratings

[wesmoorenerd]

PA is shaping up to be one of the more interesting states of 2020, so let's examine the House races there.

PA-01: Tossup (IMO the third best Democratic target after Hurd and GA-07)
PA-02: Safe D
PA-03: Safe D
PA-04: Safe D
PA-05: Safe D
PA-06: Safe D
PA-07: Likely D (Safe D in a good year)
PA-08: Lean D (GOP would be smart to go hard after this seat)
PA-09: Safe R
PA-10: Lean R (another top ten Democratic target imo)
PA-11: Safe R
PA-12: Safe R
PA-13: Safe R
PA-14: Safe R
PA-15: Safe R
PA:16: Likely R (stars would have to align for a flip here though)
PA-17: Likely D (also Safe D in a good year)
PA-18: Safe D

[MT Treasurer]

PA-01: Tossup
PA-02: Safe D
PA-03: Safe D
PA-04: Safe D
PA-05: Safe D
PA-06: Safe D
PA-07: Likely D (maybe closer to Lean than Safe, but will still be very difficult to flip)
PA-08: Lean D (what you said. Fortunately for Cartwright, the GOP isn’t smart and will probably focus more on Wild than this one.)
PA-09: Safe R
PA-10: Lean R
PA-11: Safe R
PA-12: Safe R
PA-13: Safe R
PA-14: Safe R
PA-15: Safe R
PA:16: Likely R
PA-17: Lean D (definitely closer to Likely D than Toss-up)
PA-18: Safe D

[wbrocks67]

Dems really need to go hard after PA-01. Fitzpatrick only just skirted by against a bad opponent, and Wolf/Casey won that district by double digits.

PA-10 is definitely doable though. It's a shame George Scott couldn't pull it out.

[Politician]

PA is shaping up to be one of the more interesting states of 2020, so let's examine the House races there.

PA-01: Tossup (IMO the third best Democratic target after Hurd and GA-07)
PA-02: Safe D
PA-03: Safe D
PA-04: Safe D
PA-05: Safe D
PA-06: Safe D
PA-07: Likely D (Safe D in a good year)
PA-08: Lean D (GOP would be smart to go hard after this seat)
PA-09: Safe R
PA-10: Lean R (another top ten Democratic target imo)
PA-11: Safe R
PA-12: Safe R
PA-13: Safe R
PA-14: Safe R
PA-15: Safe R
PA:16: Likely R (stars would have to align for a flip here though)
PA-17: Likely D (also Safe D in a good year)
PA-18: Safe D

I agree with this.

[S019]

PA-01: Tilt R (Regardless of candidate quality, it was a D+8 year, Fitzpatrick has crossover appeal)
PA-02: Safe D
PA-03: Safe D
PA-04: Safe D
PA-05: Safe D
PA-06: Likely/Safe D (do not spend anything here)
PA-07: Likely D (not worth investing in)
PA-08: Tilt/Lean D (Cartwright is vulnerable, but probably can squeak in one or two more victories)
PA-09: Safe R
PA-10: Tilt/Lean R (will be competitive, but wrong year to flip)
PA-11: Safe R
PA-12: Safe R
PA-13: Safe R
PA-14: Safe R
PA-15: Safe R
PA-16: Likely R (wrong year for this to be a top-tier target)
PA-17: Safe D (Lamb is one of the strongest candidates, I have seen in a long time)
PA-18: Safe D

[😥]

PA is shaping up to be one of the more interesting states of 2020, so let's examine the House races there.

PA-01: Tossup (IMO the third best Democratic target after Hurd and GA-07)
PA-02: Safe D
PA-03: Safe D
PA-04: Safe D
PA-05: Safe D
PA-06: Safe D
PA-07: Likely D (Safe D in a good year)
PA-08: Lean D (GOP would be smart to go hard after this seat)
PA-09: Safe R
PA-10: Lean R (another top ten Democratic target imo)
PA-11: Safe R
PA-12: Safe R
PA-13: Safe R
PA-14: Safe R
PA-15: Safe R
PA:16: Likely R (stars would have to align for a flip here though)
PA-17: Likely D (also Safe D in a good year)
PA-18: Safe D

I agree with this.

[Orser67]

PA-01: Tossup
PA-02: Safe D
PA-03: Safe D
PA-04: Safe D
PA-05: Safe D
PA-06: Likely D
PA-07: Likely D
PA-08: Lean D
PA-09: Safe R
PA-10: Likely R
PA-11: Safe R
PA-12: Safe R
PA-13: Safe R
PA-14: Safe R
PA-15: Safe R
PA:16: Safe R
PA-17: Likely D
PA-18: Safe D

[Orser67]

PA-01: Tossup
PA-02: Safe D
PA-03: Safe D
PA-04: Safe D
PA-05: Safe D
PA-06: Likely D
PA-07: Likely D
PA-08: Lean D
PA-09: Safe R
PA-10: Likely R
PA-11: Safe R
PA-12: Safe R
PA-13: Safe R
PA-14: Safe R
PA-15: Safe R
PA:16: Safe R
PA-17: Likely D
PA-18: Safe D

PA-06 is really just as vulnerable as PA-10, a district Wolf and Casey both won?

Trump won PA-10 by 9 points and lost PA-6 by roughly the same margin. Imo, that's more relevant than Casey/Wolf's performances in landslide re-elections.

[wbrocks67]

PA-06 is not flipping anytime soon. Chrissy Houlahan is one of PA's strongest candidates, and she won by 19% in 2018. I'd imagine that incumbency might even push her over 20%.

PA-07 is also unlikely to do anything for Reps, Susan Wild won by a solid 10% and seems to be a good fit for the district (swingy).

I think Cartwright's obituary is also overrated, yes it was a D+9 year, but he still won by nearly 10%. He's a good fit for that district, too.

PA-01, PA-10, PA-16 will be very interesting to watch. I'd also expect Conor Lamb to win very strongly again.

[Frenchrepublican]

PA-01: Tossup (Fitzpatrick is the most vulnerable republican incumbent but he shouldn’t be underestimated either because winning a Clinton/suburban district in 2018 is still very impressive)
PA-02: Safe D
PA-03: Safe D
PA-04: Safe D
PA-05: Safe D
PA-06: Safe D
PA-07: Likely D (It’s the kind of seat which could flip during a a republican wave but Wild is probably safe enough until democrats take back the White House)
PA-08: Lean D if someone like Harris is the democratic candidate, likely D if it is Biden (The main problem for us in this district is Lackawanna, Trump came close to winning it in 2016 but he was more the exception than the rule, this county remains a democratic bastion and as long we continue to lose it by a double digit margin it will be difficult to take the district)
PA-09: Safe R
PA-10: Lean R (Harrisburg area is trending democrat, but Trump will likely carry the district and push Perry over the finish line)
PA-11: Safe R
PA-12: Safe R
PA-13: Safe R
PA-14: Safe R
PA-15: Safe R
PA:16: Safe R (if democrats can’t win it in 2018 it’s difficult to see them winning it in 2020 when Trump will carry it by a double digit margin )
PA-17: Likely D (Beaver County is trending republican but Allegheny county parts of the district are tending toward democrats so it’s will be a uphill battle, anyway Lamb is a strong candidate)
PA-18: Safe D

[PApolitics]

If Republicans got a good candidate (i.e., Barletta or Luzerne County DA Stephanie Salavantis) Cartwright could have a tough fight on his hands. They need a candidate who can win Luzerne County (or at least keep it close)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If Republicans got a good candidate (i.e., Barletta or Luzerne County DA Stephanie Salavantis) Cartwright could have a tough fight on his hands. They need a candidate who can win Luzerne County (or at least keep it close)

Barletta would be a great get if he is up for it for the GOP

[lfromnj]

PA is shaping up to be one of the more interesting states of 2020, so let's examine the House races there.

PA-01: Tossup (IMO the third best Democratic target after Hurd and GA-07)
PA-02: Safe D
PA-03: Safe D
PA-04: Safe D
PA-05: Safe D
PA-06: Safe D
PA-07: Likely D (Safe D in a good year)
PA-08: Lean D (GOP would be smart to go hard after this seat)
PA-09: Safe R
PA-10: Lean R (another top ten Democratic target imo)
PA-11: Safe R
PA-12: Safe R
PA-13: Safe R
PA-14: Safe R
PA-15: Safe R
PA:16: Likely R (stars would have to align for a flip here though)
PA-17: Likely D (also Safe D in a good year)
PA-18: Safe D

Hackish af.

[Gracile]

Why is everyone so bullish about Dem chances in PA-07? It may be a Clinton district, but it had a modest Republican trend in 2012 and 2016. It's one of the few seats I can see becoming a Clinton-Trump district. I think it could be winnable if the GOP is having a good election night overall.

[Frenchrepublican]

Why is everyone so bullish about Dem chances in PA-07? It may be a Clinton district, but it had a modest Republican trend in 2012 and 2016. It's one of the few seats I can see becoming a Clinton-Trump district. I think it could be winnable if the GOP is having a good election night overall.

It’s a urban/WWC district, thus Clinton numbers are probably close to the D floor (at least according to me as I think that democrats will continue to collapse among rural/small town WWC voters but will rebound a bit among urban WWC voters). Anyway in a Trump/Biden matchup Biden would be the strong favourite to win this district.

Another thing to keep in mind is that Leigh county is attracting many Puerto Ricans and will likely trend D in the near future

[voice_of_resistance]

PA-01: Tossup (as long as the nominee is someone moderate-ish and runs a good campaign)
PA-02: Safe D
PA-03: Safe D
PA-04: Safe D
PA-05: Safe D
PA-06: Safe D
PA-07: Safe/Likely D
PA-08: Likely/Lean D (Cartwright could lose but Trump won't do as well as he did in NE PA in 2016)
PA-09: Safe/Likely R (was iffy about this, but the old Paul Kanjorski Dems aren't coming back unless there's a miracle, especially since Casey lost Luzerne County).
PA-10: Lean R (Get George Scott again, he is definitely a very good candidate for a rematch)
PA-11: Likely R (Jess King did much better than expected, even though she lost it's trending blue)
PA-12: Safe R
PA-13: Safe R
PA-14: Safe/Likely R (unless Conor Lamb runs lol)
PA-15: Safe R
PA-16: Likely/Lean R
PA-17: Safe/Likely D
PA-18: Safe D

[wesmoorenerd]

PA is shaping up to be one of the more interesting states of 2020, so let's examine the House races there.

PA-01: Tossup (IMO the third best Democratic target after Hurd and GA-07)
PA-02: Safe D
PA-03: Safe D
PA-04: Safe D
PA-05: Safe D
PA-06: Safe D
PA-07: Likely D (Safe D in a good year)
PA-08: Lean D (GOP would be smart to go hard after this seat)
PA-09: Safe R
PA-10: Lean R (another top ten Democratic target imo)
PA-11: Safe R
PA-12: Safe R
PA-13: Safe R
PA-14: Safe R
PA-15: Safe R
PA:16: Likely R (stars would have to align for a flip here though)
PA-17: Likely D (also Safe D in a good year)
PA-18: Safe D

Hackish af.

Lmao, how so? The 1st is, without question, one of the top seats the Dems left on the table in 2018. It's a Clinton seat, for crying out loud, and the only reason we lost is because we nominated a terrible candidate. That won't happen again. The 8th would immediately be a more-likely-than-not flip if Cartwright retired, but he won with a double digit (I believe) margin in 2018 and still holds sway with the Obama-Trump voters in the district. I find it more likely that PA-01 moves left by a point or two than PA-08 moves right by ten.

[ElectionsGuy]

PA-01: Toss/Tilt D
PA-06: Likely D
PA-07: Lean D
PA-08: Toss/Tilt R
PA-10: Lean R
PA-16: Likely R
PA-17: Likely D

[KaiserDave]

PA-01: Tossup
PA-02: Safe D
PA-03: Safe D
PA-04: Safe D
PA-05: Safe D
PA-06: Safe D
PA-07: Likely D
PA-08: Lean D (The only way this flips if it Trump is losing the PV by 1-2)
PA-09: Safe R
PA-10: Lean R (Scott Perry cannot continue to be among the most right wing Republicans, or else...)
PA-11: Safe R
PA-12: Safe R
PA-13: Safe R
PA-14: Safe R
PA-15: Safe R
PA-16: Likely R
PA-17: Likely D
PA-18: Safe D

[Politician]

PA-01: Tossup (as long as the nominee is someone moderate-ish and runs a good campaign)
PA-02: Safe D
PA-03: Safe D
PA-04: Safe D
PA-05: Safe D
PA-06: Safe D
PA-07: Safe/Likely D
PA-08: Likely/Lean D (Cartwright could lose but Trump won't do as well as he did in NE PA in 2016)
PA-09: Safe/Likely R (was iffy about this, but the old Paul Kanjorski Dems aren't coming back unless there's a miracle, especially since Casey lost Luzerne County).
PA-10: Lean R (Get George Scott again, he is definitely a very good candidate for a rematch)
PA-11: Likely R (Jess King did much better than expected, even though she lost it's trending blue)
PA-12: Safe R
PA-13: Safe R
PA-14: Safe/Likely R (unless Conor Lamb runs lol)
PA-15: Safe R
PA-16: Likely/Lean R
PA-17: Safe/Likely D
PA-18: Safe D

Dude, wtf? PA-9 and PA-14 are Titanium R. PA-11 is easily Safe R.

[Frenchrepublican]

PA-01: Tossup (as long as the nominee is someone moderate-ish and runs a good campaign)
PA-02: Safe D
PA-03: Safe D
PA-04: Safe D
PA-05: Safe D
PA-06: Safe D
PA-07: Safe/Likely D
PA-08: Likely/Lean D (Cartwright could lose but Trump won't do as well as he did in NE PA in 2016)
PA-09: Safe/Likely R (was iffy about this, but the old Paul Kanjorski Dems aren't coming back unless there's a miracle, especially since Casey lost Luzerne County).
PA-10: Lean R (Get George Scott again, he is definitely a very good candidate for a rematch)
PA-11: Likely R (Jess King did much better than expected, even though she lost it's trending blue)
PA-12: Safe R
PA-13: Safe R
PA-14: Safe/Likely R (unless Conor Lamb runs lol)
PA-15: Safe R
PA-16: Likely/Lean R
PA-17: Safe/Likely D
PA-18: Safe D

Dude, wtf? PA-9 and PA-14 are Titanium R. PA-11 is easily Safe R.

Yeah, without any part of Chester County inside the district it's difficult to see a competitive election

[ElectionsGuy]

PA-01: Tossup (as long as the nominee is someone moderate-ish and runs a good campaign)
PA-02: Safe D
PA-03: Safe D
PA-04: Safe D
PA-05: Safe D
PA-06: Safe D
PA-07: Safe/Likely D
PA-08: Likely/Lean D (Cartwright could lose but Trump won't do as well as he did in NE PA in 2016)
PA-09: Safe/Likely R (was iffy about this, but the old Paul Kanjorski Dems aren't coming back unless there's a miracle, especially since Casey lost Luzerne County).
PA-10: Lean R (Get George Scott again, he is definitely a very good candidate for a rematch)
PA-11: Likely R (Jess King did much better than expected, even though she lost it's trending blue)
PA-12: Safe R
PA-13: Safe R
PA-14: Safe/Likely R (unless Conor Lamb runs lol)
PA-15: Safe R
PA-16: Likely/Lean R
PA-17: Safe/Likely D
PA-18: Safe D

Dude, wtf? PA-9 and PA-14 are Titanium R. PA-11 is easily Safe R.

Yeah, without any part of Chester County inside the district it's difficult to see a competitive election

Basically, what I've learned reading through this thread is that 2020 elections to a lot of people right now is a 2018 rerun where trends only matter if they're in favor of Democrats. PA-08 for example? Pfff, Cartwright won by 9 last time? He can't possibly lose when Joe Biden will be running with his WWC Scranton style populism against Trump. Yeah, Trump won the district last time almost by double digits, but Cartwright will have incumbency advantage (this only applies to Democratic incumbents btw) so he'll win.

[Frenchrepublican]

PA-01: Tossup (as long as the nominee is someone moderate-ish and runs a good campaign)
PA-02: Safe D
PA-03: Safe D
PA-04: Safe D
PA-05: Safe D
PA-06: Safe D
PA-07: Safe/Likely D
PA-08: Likely/Lean D (Cartwright could lose but Trump won't do as well as he did in NE PA in 2016)
PA-09: Safe/Likely R (was iffy about this, but the old Paul Kanjorski Dems aren't coming back unless there's a miracle, especially since Casey lost Luzerne County).
PA-10: Lean R (Get George Scott again, he is definitely a very good candidate for a rematch)
PA-11: Likely R (Jess King did much better than expected, even though she lost it's trending blue)
PA-12: Safe R
PA-13: Safe R
PA-14: Safe/Likely R (unless Conor Lamb runs lol)
PA-15: Safe R
PA-16: Likely/Lean R
PA-17: Safe/Likely D
PA-18: Safe D

Dude, wtf? PA-9 and PA-14 are Titanium R. PA-11 is easily Safe R.

Yeah, without any part of Chester County inside the district it's difficult to see a competitive election

Basically, what I've learned reading through this thread is that 2020 elections to a lot of people right now is a 2018 rerun where trends only matter if they're in favor of Democrats. PA-08 for example? Pfff, Cartwright won by 9 last time? He can't possibly lose when Joe Biden will be running with his WWC Scranton style populism against Trump. Yeah, Trump won the district last time almost by double digits, but Cartwright will have incumbency advantage (this only applies to Democratic incumbents btw) so he'll win.

Yeah, many people on this forum are too bulish concerning democrats. I'm not saying that Trump will be easily re-elected or that he will win in a landslide (he won't and will likely lose the PV like in 2016) but the idea that Biden will trounce him by a double digits margin and could carry TX and OH and even MO or MT is really crazy. The same thing is true for the Senate, Dems have at best a 25% chance of winning the Senate (as of now) and the idea that AK/GA/TX/MT are competitive is dumb. NC will likely be competitive but as of now the state is Lean R, and concerning AZ I don't understand why so many people thing that Kelly is as shoo in. Far too many people think that 2018 is the new normal and that every post 2018 elections will look like the one of last year (many people said the same thing after 2008 and the Obama landslide).

[PApolitics]

Eugene DePasquale would be great for the Dems if he challenges Perry

[morgieb]

PA-01: Tossup (Fitzpatrick is a good candidate, but this is still a pretty tough seat for Republicans. Don't think Wallace was the best candidate)
PA-02: Safe D
PA-03: Safe D
PA-04: Safe D
PA-05: Safe D
PA-06: Safe D (can't see this one coming back soon)
PA-07: Likely D (even Hillary won here, and Wild did win by double digits. Can't see this one flipping unless Trump does very well)
PA-08: Lean D (Dems are in long-term trouble here (and in a Dem midterm this one is very likely to flip), though I'm not sure this is the kind of seat the Republicans go hard enough to knock him off unless Trump improves on his 2016 numbers in WWC cities, which I'm more skeptical of based on what happened in 2018)
PA-09: Safe R
PA-10: Lean R (very gettable if DiPasqaule runs. Probably more like Likely R if he doesn't)
PA-11: Safe R
PA-12: Safe R
PA-13: Safe R
PA-14: Safe R
PA-15: Safe R
PA-16: Safe R (did trend back quite a bit in 2018 but I can't see a path for Democrats here unless the night is very bad for Republicans)
PA-17: Likely D (Lamb is very popular and the seat is trending D)
PA-18: Safe D