ROC President and Legislative elections Jan 11 2020

[jaichind]

How did she go from being the most popular after the scandal-plauged Ma Ying-jeou Presidency to becoming the most unpopular President in Taiwanese history ?

I think she misread the mandate in 2016 much like Ma did in 2008.  Ma over-compromised with Pan-Green forces.  Tsai made the opposite mistake.  Tsai though that if she can nulify the KMT money advantage a long lasting DPP majority could be built. So she invested a bunch of political capital into freezing KMT assets.  The reality is the KMT money edge has not bee decisive since the early 2000s so this was a fools errand.   She also over-promised in 2016 on issues like pension reform, energy policy and gay rights without pointing out real tradeoffs that the DPP position would entail.  And when she tried to push forward the DPP agenda sticker shock drove voters away from Tsai.

As for Ma I would say scandal wise its is better than under DPP Chen who himself got locked up for corruption.  On the other side Ma who is personally very clean had over-promised in 2008 on the nature of the incoming KMT regime with respect to corruption so just like Tsai after 2016 the Ma regime took a hammering in 2013 when various scandals came out.  On this topic there is an argument that  perhaps the DPP is better off losing in 2020.  Various scandals tend to come out in the second term and it is clear there will be a world recession sometime in 2020 or later.  In many ways 2020 is a poison chalice.  And if the DPP wins in 2020 then the 2022 ROC local election will be a DPP bloodbath of epic proportions exceeding the 2005 and 2018 KMT landslides as well as the 2014 DPP landslide.  I can see the DPP in 2022 literally end up with 1-3 counties/cities out of 22.

[LoneStarDem]

I also note that Tsai's foreign policy has been a mixed bag considering 5 so-called "friends" dumped her since she's been in office:

1.) Panama: considering she visited the country back in 2016.

2.) Sao Tome & Principe

3.) Dominican Republic

4.) Burkina Faso

5.) El Salvador: Tsai also visited this country as well.

[jaichind]

Pro-Green Formosa (but mostly pro-Ko but would back Tsai over Lai) poll

KMT Han 32.1 Ko 28.3 DPP Lai 26.8
KMT Han 45.5 DPP Lai 39.8
KMT Han 35.4 Ko 27.8 DPP Tsai 22.6
KMT Han 49.5 DPP Tsai 34.5

Ko 32.8 DPP Lai 25.1 KMT Chu 25.1
DPP Lai 40.6 KMT Chu 38.2
Ko 32.4 KMT Chu 24.6 DPP Tsai 23.2
KMT Chu 40.8 DPP Tsai 35.8


Since we are in DPP Primary season the DPP support are most artificially high.   I think overall if Lai and/or Ko runs then the KMT will lean toward drafting Han.  DPP runs Tsai and Ko does not get into the race then most likely the KMT will go with Chu.  KMT pretty much will decide in June so they have last mover advantage.  Of course this delay is causing chaos and infighting over the nature of the KMT primary and process issues over a potential Han Draft.

[jaichind]

I also note that Tsai's foreign policy has been a mixed bag considering 5 so-called "friends" dumped her since she's been in office:

1.) Panama: considering she visited the country back in 2016.

2.) Sao Tome & Principe

3.) Dominican Republic

4.) Burkina Faso

5.) El Salvador: Tsai also visited this country as well.

Well, this is not directly Tsai's fault.  What took place in 2008 was the ROC and PRC agreed to a "diplomatic truce" based on the "1992 Consensus" which is: Both side agrees there is only One China but both sides get to proclaim what is that One China.

In 2016 DPP took over and choose to reject the "1992 Consensus" so the PRC went on the diplomatic offensive and poached a bunch of states that recognized the ROC.  This is not longer the 1990s when both PRC and ROC were in the same league when it comes to cash to buy off micro-states to back  ROC or not.  The resource gap these days are just too massive in favor of PRC.

[jaichind]

The pro-Tsai camp in the DPP, sending that she could lose, is already talking about a special rule in the DPP by-laws.  Namely, an emergency DPP party convention could be called where a 3/5 majority could overturn the result of a DPP "primary."  Not sure why they are talking about this now.  The battle has not begun yet and they are already talking about what they would do if they lose.  This only undermines the Tsai campaign.  The only logical reason for this, in my view, is to threaten fence sitters in the various DPP organisations not to break ranks to campaign for Lai because even a Lai victory in the primary does not necessary mean that Lai will become the nominee.

[LoneStarDem]

I also note that Tsai's foreign policy has been a mixed bag considering 5 so-called "friends" dumped her since she's been in office:

1.) Panama: considering she visited the country back in 2016.

2.) Sao Tome & Principe

3.) Dominican Republic

4.) Burkina Faso

5.) El Salvador: Tsai also visited this country as well.

Well, this is not directly Tsai's fault.  What took place in 2008 was the ROC and PRC agreed to a "diplomatic truce" based on the "1992 Consensus" which is: Both side agrees there is only One China but both sides get to proclaim what is that One China.

In 2016 DPP took over and choose to reject the "1992 Consensus" so the PRC went on the diplomatic offensive and poached a bunch of states that recognized the ROC.  This is not longer the 1990s when both PRC and ROC were in the same league when it comes to cash to buy off micro-states to back  ROC or not.  The resource gap these days are just too massive in favor of PRC.

What can Tsai & the DPP do ?

[jaichind]

DPP Speaker of the Legislature and pro-Tsai partisan Su (who ran as Tsai's running mate in 2012 in a losing effort against the KMT) has declared that he will not run on the DPP PR party list in 2020 which basically means is out of the running for Speaker of the Legislature after the 2020 elections.   The word is he did this to open up political space for Tsai to negotiate with Lai to get Lai out of the race. 

In the meantime there are persistent rumors from the pro-Tsai bloc that either
a) Even if Lai wins the primary the pro-Tsai majority in the Party Delegates will call an emergency DPP Party convention and nominate Tsai with a 3/5 majority vote
OR
b) The primary might be canceled all together and the DPP just nominates Tsai

All this moves are very politically dangerous for the DPP and most likely are ploys to get Lai to the negotiations table  to accept a Tsai-Lai ticket.

The nightmare scenario is Lai bets Tsai in the primary by less than 5%.  The pro-Lai bloc will proclaim victory and rush to proclaim Lai the DPP candidate for Prez.  The pro-Tsai bloc will say "the whole point of Lai running, or so he claims, is that he will be a much stronger candidate than Tsai in the general election but the primary results show the are basically the same so why are we admitting to the public that the DPP administration has failed by replacing the DPP incumbent." and then use its 3/5 majority in the DPP party convention to nominate Tsai which in turn will lead to a split of the DPP with Lai potentially running as a DPP rebel.

On xfutures.org the odds are still Tsai 58 Lai 42 despite the fact that Lai is clearly ahead in the polls.  These odds reflect the fact that Lai has to beat Tsai by double digits in the primary, if there is one, to be nominated.   So in other words these betting odds reflect a good chance of some technical rigging.

[jaichind]

Well, this is not directly Tsai's fault.  What took place in 2008 was the ROC and PRC agreed to a "diplomatic truce" based on the "1992 Consensus" which is: Both side agrees there is only One China but both sides get to proclaim what is that One China.

In 2016 DPP took over and choose to reject the "1992 Consensus" so the PRC went on the diplomatic offensive and poached a bunch of states that recognized the ROC.  This is not longer the 1990s when both PRC and ROC were in the same league when it comes to cash to buy off micro-states to back  ROC or not.  The resource gap these days are just too massive in favor of PRC.

What can Tsai & the DPP do ?

Well, clearly Tsai and DPP are for Taiwan independence which is a dead end the way they are going about it.   Putting myself in their shoes the way I would go about this would be to appeal directly to the population on Mainland China.  Their line should be

"We totally acknowledge the people on Taiwan are of Chinese stock.  We are just as proud as those of you on the Mainland at our common Chinese heritage.  What are movement is about is not about separation of Taiwan from China per say  but more about what is the best political system that will bring good results for the Chinese people.  Our view is that a mega state of all Chinese is no longer viable in this fast paced modern world.  If we Chinese split up into a couple dozen mini states (much like the Arab people have at least a dozen states) then each state can act quicker and be more nimble to adopt policies that will benefit its citizens.  The success of the Chinese dominated state of Singapore is a good example of this. Let Taiwan form a separate Chinese state  and let that be a beacon on how we can form many smaller Chinese states.  We Chinese in these smaller Chinese states can even work together in some sort of EU-like or Commonwealth form in recognition of our common Chinese heritage."  

That would be a way to make the argument for Taiwan Independence and potentially get that to work without a war that Taiwan is destined to lose.

[LoneStarDem]

Well, this is not directly Tsai's fault.  What took place in 2008 was the ROC and PRC agreed to a "diplomatic truce" based on the "1992 Consensus" which is: Both side agrees there is only One China but both sides get to proclaim what is that One China.

In 2016 DPP took over and choose to reject the "1992 Consensus" so the PRC went on the diplomatic offensive and poached a bunch of states that recognized the ROC.  This is not longer the 1990s when both PRC and ROC were in the same league when it comes to cash to buy off micro-states to back  ROC or not.  The resource gap these days are just too massive in favor of PRC.

What can Tsai & the DPP do ?

Well, clearly Tsai and DPP are for Taiwan independence which is a dead end the way they are going about it.   Putting myself in their shoes the way I would go about this would be to appeal directly to the population on Mainland China.  Their line should be

"We totally acknowledge the people on Taiwan are of Chinese stock.  We are just as proud as those of you on the Mainland at our common Chinese heritage.  What are movement is about is not about separation of Taiwan from China per say  but more about what is the best political system that will bring good results for the Chinese people.  Our view is that a mega state of all Chinese is no longer viable in this fast paced modern world.  If we Chinese split up into a couple dozen mini states (much like the Arab people have at least a dozen states) then each state can act quicker and be more nimble to adopt policies that will benefit its citizens.  The success of the Chinese dominated state of Singapore is a good example of this. Let Taiwan form a separate Chinese state  and let that be a beacon on how we can form many smaller Chinese states.  We Chinese in these smaller Chinese states can even work together in some sort of EU-like or Commonwealth form in recognition of our common Chinese heritage."  

That would be a way to make the argument for Taiwan Independence and potentially get that to work without a war that Taiwan is destined to lose.

I view Taiwan as an independent country, but I do agree with you that they need to up their game & take a look at how Singapore did it back then.

[jaichind]

Now the pro-Tsai camp are saying that DPP should consider canceling the primary.  They logic is based on this chart
 
         DPP Primary Held       General election result
1996       Yes                             DPP lost
2000        No                             DPP won
2004        No                             DPP won
2008       Yes                             DPP lost
2012       Yes                             DPP lost
2016        No                             DPP won

Their point is that every time the DPP held a Prez "Primary" the DPP loses in the general election and vice versa.  But the main issue here is more that not holding the primary means that the party is united around one candidate making a primary not necessary.  A united DPP then wins a general election.  Not holding a primary for 2020  does not change the fact that the DPP is now clearly divided.

[LoneStarDem]

The DPP is desperate aren't they ?

[jaichind]

The DPP is desperate aren't they ?

Just to be clear. the KMT "primary" in a equal as there is a strong Draft Han movement.  KMT Chairman Wu seems to prefer to Draft Han into the primary and have Han beat Chu and Wang fair an square.  Problem is KMT by-laws does not allow for such a maneuver and Han does not want to sign up for the KMT primary on his own since it would look like he has betrayed his mandate of Nov 2018. 

The trend on the Pan-Blue side is that they always split when they are in office (1996 2000 2012 2016) but are united when they are not (2004 2008).  So most likely this will work itself out.

I think what will most likely will take place is  the KMT wait for the DPP "primary" to work itself out.  If the DPP candidate (be it Tsai or Lai) gets damaged as a result of a contest primary then the Draft Han campaign will dissipate and it will be a Chu vs Wang KMT primary.  If the DPP emerges stronger from its primary, as hard as it is to see now, then there will be a Draft Han surge with KMT Chairman Wu just drafting Han can cancelling the KMT primary.

[LoneStarDem]

Toss-Up in the contest for Taiwanese President depending on the nominees.

[jaichind]

Ettoday poll (which is fairly internet heavy and as a result youth heavy)

KMT Han 41.1 Ko 26.8 DPP Tsai 21.6
KMT Han 40.4 Ko 26.6 DPP Lai 22.8



KMT Han 49.7 DPP Tsai 30.4
KMT Han 48.3 DPP Lai 31.9


Seems to show no difference between Tsai and Lai.  Of course Tsai is stronger among DPP youth and Lai is stronger with the DPP core so an internet heavy poll tend to be better for Tsai.

[jaichind]

Think tank Taipei Debate Fund poll

Will you support Taiwan Independence if Mainland China does not attack in response: 62.0%
Will you support Taiwan Independence if Mainland China does attack in response: 29.8%

What do you think is the likely outcome in the end between Taiwan and Mainland China: Unification 48.1% Independence 29.6%

So around 30% hare hardcore Taiwan Independence supporters that will back it despite an attack from PRC in response.  Other then that there is a majority for Taiwan Independence in abstract even though not if there is a PRC attack and most do no think it will ever take place as opposed to Unification.

[jaichind]

There are rumors that DPP Chairman (who is a Tsai crony) has proposed a poll based primary with a twist: Lai has to beat Tsai by 3% to count as a Lai victory.  While it seems like an attempt to rig the process I think there is some logic behind it.  The whole point of a Lai run is that he will do a lot better than Tsai in the general election.  But if Lai can only beat Tsai by 3% or less then that whole logic breaks down and risks a general DPP meltdown by saying to the electorate "our administration has failed ergo we need to kick out the incumbent".  They can also point to 2017 France where PS kicking out Hollande did not mean Hamon did any better or avoid getting hammered.

[jaichind]

DPP decided to push back the Prez primary to beyond 5/22 which is the date when the DPP will work out its candidates for the Legislature.  This was done over the objections of the Lai bloc but other than the radical pro-Taiwan Independence faction and part of the New Tide faction everyone else is backing Tsai.  I think the fix is in.  Tsai and gang I think is going to drag this process out until when Tsai can win over Lai in the polls. 

Up until now the pro-Tsai bloc has been putting out feelers to the media about the set of possible steps the Tsai bloc might take in the future

1) Delay the Prez primary - which has been done
2) Cancel the primary and nominate Tsai
3) A DPP national convention overturning the Primary results in case Tsai loses
4) DPP primary will have added rules saying that Lai has to win by at least 3% over Tsai to count as a win
5) Tsai leave DPP and run as independent if Lai is nominated via the DPP primary process.

None of Tsai's cronies would publicly  say they are for any of the last 4 but clearly "someone" is feeding the media that this is what is being considered by DPP high command (aka Tsai)

So while Lai won round 1 over Tsai in his surprise jump into the DPP Prez primary without Tsai knowing what hit her, in round 2 she is recovering and creating an organizational noose to slowly squeeze Lai until he has to give in.

[jaichind]

On the KMT side KMT chairman Wu announces that he will not seek to become the KMT candidate.  This now frees him to get in there to work with Chu Wang and Han on some sort of process to get a candidate that will win including a draft Han move.  Of course the KMT will wait to see if DPP implodes and if Ko picks up the DPP base.  The candidate the KMT will have to come up with with or without a DPP implosion and with or without Ko could look very different. 

[LoneStarDem]

The odds that Tsai survives in 2020 IF she wins the DPP Primary & wins reelection against a stronger KMT nominee ?

[jaichind]

The odds that Tsai survives in 2020 IF she wins the DPP Primary & wins reelection against a stronger KMT nominee ?

On paper low.  On the other hand back in 2004 before DPP Prez Chen was officially re-nominated by the DPP he was behind the Pan-Blue Lien-Soong ticket by 18% but was able to cut it to 8% after DPP Prez Chen was officially nominated.  Chen went on to win by a narrow margin mostly due to a last minute assassination attempt on Chen which to this day all Pan-Blue voters feel that it was staged by DPP. 

If Tsai is the DPP nominee she could provoke all sorts of conflict with the PRC to turn the election into a referendum on reunification with Mainland China which she would be a good shape to win.   

[jaichind]

After DPP delayed the Prez Primary which should help Tsai Xfutures odds now has it as Tsai 55 Lai 45 versus Tsai 58 Lai 42 before the delay.  I guess the punter market thinks this move decrease the chances of cancelling the Primary all together which obviously increase Lai's odds.

[jaichind]

Latest Chinatimes poll on KMT primary

Han   34.6%
Chu   16.4%
Wang 16.1%

Of course Han has not declared that he will enter the race but he might be forced by the KMT base.

[LoneStarDem]

This is getting interesting.

[jaichind]

Apple Daliy poll  Apple Daily tend to lean Green and especially since we are in DPP "primary" season polls during this time will have a pro-DPP lean

DPP "primary"
             All voters      Pan-Green voters
Lai            42.8                   43.5
Tsai           27.3                  48.0

Non-Pan Green voters prefer Lai despite the fact he is more radical.  Clearly shows how turned off the non-Pan-Green voters are to Tsai

KMT "primary"
             All voters      Pan-Blue voters
Han           32.3                  54.3
Chu           23.6                  27.0
Wang         22.0                  10.5

Non-Pan Blue voters prefer Wang which makes sense as he is the most moderate of all KMT candidates.

There are talk that pro-Blue CEO of Foxconn Terry Gou might also try to jump in the race and run as a Pan-Blue candidate.

Pan-Blue "primary"

             All voters      Pan-Blue voters
Han          25.4                 43.4
Guo          22.9                 28.9
Wang        19.1                  6.5
Chu          18.6                 18.2


3 way Prez trial heats

Han 37.4 Ko 30.1 Tsai 22.3
Han 35.4 Ko 27.6  Lai 27.5
Ko 35.9 Chu 30.1 Tsai 22.7
Ko 34.9 Lai 27.4 Chu 26.4

Lai does 5% better than Tsai in 3 way trial heats




1-on-1 it is

Han 51.4 Tsai 37.4
Han 48.6 Lai 42.6



All things equal Tsai does 5% worse than Lai across the board when compared to other KMT candidates.  The poll males it clear the path forward for Tsai.  Tsai should push DPP to build a "closed primary" where it is Lai vs Tsai but only with Pan-Green voters preferences being counted.

[jaichind]

So it seems Foxconn owner and CEO  郭台銘(Terry Gou) is likely to jump into the KMT primary a couple of days from now.


Guo has been pro-KMT all his life although his party membership membership might have lapsed.  Given the fact that he would be strong contender for KMT in the general election KMT Chairman Wu who has ruled himself out as a candidate for the KMT has given Guo retroactive honorary membership    in the KMT.  Guo was and still is a stronger supporter of Han.  Han is in the USA right now but as soon as he comes back there will be a Han-Guo summit where between the two one will enter into the KMT primary. 

If it plays out this way then it would simply things for KMT high command. The KMT "problem" is if Ko gets into the race and/or DPP runs Lai, then while Chu COULD win in such a general election race he COULD also lose.   The KMT has been so burned badly in 2016 it wants a "sure thing" of a candidate that is well ahead of Ko and Lai.  Han fits that model but Han does not want to jump into the primary given the optics of abandoning Kaoshiung which was just elected mayor back in Nov 2018.  If Guo gets into the race now it will force Han's hand.  If Han really want to be Prez in 2020 he can tell Guo to back off and it is believed Guo will.  If Han does not want to run he can now not feel pressure of betraying the hopes of the KMT base who need him to run to ensure victory in 2020 by backing Guo who would fit that need. It is expected that Guo would defeat Chu and Wang in a KMT primary and would have the upper hand in the general election against Lai and/or Ko if either or both gets into the race.  I dare say if Guo ends up being the KMT candidate given his appeal to independents Ko might not even run.

A ROC Prez Guo in 2020 would be interesting.  Foxconn has significant business interests on Mainland China and other parts of the world including USA.  Guo has had interactions with Trump due to his new Foxconn plant in WI which is suppose to help Trump's election.  His business connections will for sure help ROC economic policy making and deal making but like Trump might fall into controversy over conflict of interest.