ROC President and Legislative elections Jan 11 2020

[jaichind]

Foxconn's Gou Runs for Taiwan President, Citing Message From Sea Goddess

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-17/foxconn-s-gou-says-sea-goddess-backs-his-run-for-taiwan-leader

Guo indicated that he spoke to the Sea goddess 媽祖(Mazu)  who gave him the instruction to run.  The Mazu cult started in the Sung dynasty and is based on a story of a girl in Fujian province during that time that sacrificed her life to rush out to sea to save her father whose ship was stranded at sea in the storm.  Mazu is worshiped mostly by fishermen in the Southern Chinese oceanic provinces of Fujian, Guangdong Zhejiang and Taiwan.   Guo himself is actually pretty religious but part of this story has to be the fact that he will need to appeal to conservative-religious voters in the general election as he should have the economic voter locked up. 


On a separate note if Guo is elected in 2020 then there could be a bake-off between him and Trump on who has higher net worth.  I suspect that Trump by a small margin most likely have a higher net worth than Guo,

[jaichind]

Shih Hsin University poll (historically used sometimes by Apple Daily)


KMT primary
Han    29.8
Guo    29.0




Guo performance in 3 way general election

KMT Guo 35.6 Ko 25.2 DPP Tsai 20.2
KMT Guo 32.1 Ko 25.8 DPP Lai 23.0



Guo performance in 2 way general election

KMT Guo 50.2 DPP Tsai 27.1
KMT Guo 42.6 DPP Lai 33.6

 


Most of these numbers will go down a bit for Guo as the novelty factor falls off but so far he seems like a formidable candidate.

[jaichind]

Current xfutures odds

DPP nominee
Tsai 50%
Lai   50%

KMT nominee
Guo  70%
Han  20%
Chu    9%
Wang  1%

[LoneStarDem]

Foxconn's Gou Runs for Taiwan President, Citing Message From Sea Goddess

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-17/foxconn-s-gou-says-sea-goddess-backs-his-run-for-taiwan-leader

Guo indicated that he spoke to the Sea goddess 媽祖(Mazu)  who gave him the instruction to run.  The Mazu cult started in the Sung dynasty and is based on a story of a girl in Fujian province during that time that sacrificed her life to rush out to sea to save her father whose ship was stranded at sea in the storm.  Mazu is worshiped mostly by fishermen in the Southern Chinese oceanic provinces of Fujian, Guangdong Zhejiang and Taiwan.   Guo himself is actually pretty religious but part of this story has to be the fact that he will need to appeal to conservative-religious voters in the general election as he should have the economic voter locked up. 


On a separate note if Guo is elected in 2020 then there could be a bake-off between him and Trump on who has higher net worth.  I suspect that Trump by a small margin most likely have a higher net worth than Guo,

The sea goddess told him to seek the Presidential Office Building in 2020 ?

[jaichind]

After working to get Guo to indicate that he will run in the KMT primary, KMT Chairman Wu's next move seems to be to draft Han into the KMT primary as well.  Wu's plan is clear to force as many titans into the KMT primary and then use the primary process to get supporters of all KMT candidates behind the winner.  That was always the danger of a Draft Han movement where Chu and Wang backers would fell the process was unfair since it just assumed that Han was the stronger candidate.  Now Han has to make a call if he even wants to run since the KMT no longer need to draft him to get a winner in the general election.   If he rules out 2020 then it is logical that Han would endorse Guo which would unify the Pan-Blue bloc.  Looks like Wu has played his cards well.  With a clear path for Han to enter the KMT primary if he does want to be considered for 2020 KMT nomination the latest xfutures odds for KMT nomination is now

Guo   48%
Han   35%
Chu   15%
Wang  2%

In the meantime DPP Prez Tsai is directly giving implicit signals in her speech that a  DPP primary would be a bad idea and that a another way to unify the DPP be found (which for her clearly is a Tsia-Lai ticket.)  Lai on the other hand insist on a primary.

[jaichind]

The sea goddess told him to seek the Presidential Office Building in 2020 ?

Correct, at least according to Guo.  Guo, to be fair, has been a believer in Mazu for decades so his faith should not be doubted.  Also to be exact  Guo said that both Mazu and another Chinese diety Guan Gong (關公) spoke to him in his dreams asking him to run.  

Guan Gong is based on a general Guan Yu from the Late Easter Han and Three Kingdoms period of 200-220 era. A propaganda history of Guan Yu made him icon of loyalty where he insisted on going back to his original retainer even after he was captured and promoted by a rival warlord.  He made his loyalty transparent to this rival warlord risking death and carried out his promise to going back to his original retainer after serving this rival warlord faithfully for some time.  Various Chinese governments have promoted the cult of Guan Gong to promote loyalty which benefits the current regime, of course.  The most recent Ching Dynasty was especially aggressive on this as a rival icon of loyalty would be Yue Fei (岳飛) of the Suny Dynasty.  Main problem for the Ching Dynasty was that Yue Fei spent most of his time fighting the rival Manchurian based Jin Dynasty which are the ancesters of the Manchurian based Ching dynasty.  While the Ching dynasty could not  defame Yue Fei or risk the ire of the general population that adore Yue Fei but what they can to is to promote a rival icon of loyalty Guan Yu who is more politically correct from the Ching dynasty point of view.


Again Guo is pretty famous for being faithful devotee of both Mazu and Guan Gong for decades so which this story seems fairly opportunistic it is hard to come down hard on someone who clearly had this faith for decades.

[jaichind]

With Guo clearly playing the religious card DPP Prez Tsai has to get back into the act.  A couple of days after the Guo claimed that Mazu told him to run in 2020, DPP Prez Tsai rushes to pray at a Mazu temple

[jaichind]

Also needing to get into the religious act, DPP's Lai also rushes to pray at 保生大帝(Baosheng Dadi) temple.  The Baosheng Dadi cult which is based on a doctor during the Sung dynasty (late 900s) in Fuijan (around the same time and as the girl the Mazu cult is based on) is often seen as a rival to the Mazu cult as both are very focused in Southern China, especially the Fujian area.
 

[jaichind]

A breakdown by age of the Shih Hsin University poll for Guo vs Ko vs Lai is intresting

           KMT Guo     Ko      DPP Lai
Total       32.1      25.8        23.0
20-29      18         41           22
30-39      32         35           19
40-49      35         28           15
50-59      38         22           28
60-69      40         13           25
70+         28          9           31

Ko very strong with the young.  Guo is competitive with the young (unlike Han) but very strong for middle age to 60s.  Lai starts to be competitive in the 50+ range with Ko being ultra weak once the age is above 60.

[urutzizu]

A breakdown by age of the Shih Hsin University poll for Guo vs Ko vs Lai is intresting

           KMT Guo     Ko      DPP Lai
Total       32.1      25.8        23.0
20-29      18         41           22
30-39      32         35           19
40-49      35         28           15
50-59      38         22           28
60-69      40         13           25
70+         28          9           31

Ko very strong with the young.  Guo is competitive with the young (unlike Han) but very strong for middle age to 60s.  Lai starts to be competitive in the 50+ range with Ko being ultra weak once the age is above 60.

Taiwans age-political alignment correlation is really quite unique with the liberal nationalist DPP being very unpopular with the middle age group and quite popular with both the very young and the very old, while the conservative KMT finds most of its support among the middle Age group.
This is completely different to comparable countries in east asia like Korea where the older you get the more conservative the population group becomes, or in Japan where, as you once showed, the opposite is true.

What is the reason for Taiwan being so different? Is it because of the 40-60 Year olds growing up during the economic boom and martial law under chiang-kuo and therefore having a more positive view of the KMT, while Younger generations grew up under Chen and Lee-teng hui and with the missile strait crisis, and the 70+ maybe still witnessed the 228 Incident and therefore being more pro-DPP?   

(Also the Matsu Islands have a huge statue of Mazu and when i visited Nangan i think they said something about Mazu being seen as the protector of the Islands from the PRC and the reason why they were not invaded, so i expect guo to do very well there)

[jaichind]

Latest Formosa Times poll (pro-Green but also pro-Ko) done before Guo announced formally that he is running for KMT nomination (diff with March poll)

3 way
KMT Han 37.3(+5.2) DPP Lai 27.5(+0.7) Ko 21.7(-6.6)
KMT Han 37.8(+2.4) DPP Tsai 24.8(+2.2) Ko 22.9 (-4.9)
KMT Guo 32.3 DPP Lai 28.1 Ko 23.4
KMT Guo 34.1 DPP Tsai 24.7 Ko 24.3

1-on-1
KMT Han 46.4 DPP Lai 37.5
KMT Han 48.7 DPP Tsai 33.9
KMT Guo 44.6 DPP Lai 38.6
KMT Guo 48.2 DPP Tsai 32.1


With all the news on the DPP and KMT primaries Ko has been pushed out of the news and have lost ground even in a pro-Ko poll. Tsai seems to be slowing gaining ground on Lai.  Her delay tactics seems to be working.  

[jaichind]

A breakdown by age of the Shih Hsin University poll for Guo vs Ko vs Lai is intresting

           KMT Guo     Ko      DPP Lai
Total       32.1      25.8        23.0
20-29      18         41           22
30-39      32         35           19
40-49      35         28           15
50-59      38         22           28
60-69      40         13           25
70+         28          9           31

Ko very strong with the young.  Guo is competitive with the young (unlike Han) but very strong for middle age to 60s.  Lai starts to be competitive in the 50+ range with Ko being ultra weak once the age is above 60.

Taiwans age-political alignment correlation is really quite unique with the liberal nationalist DPP being very unpopular with the middle age group and quite popular with both the very young and the very old, while the conservative KMT finds most of its support among the middle Age group.
This is completely different to comparable countries in east asia like Korea where the older you get the more conservative the population group becomes, or in Japan where, as you once showed, the opposite is true.

What is the reason for Taiwan being so different? Is it because of the 40-60 Year olds growing up during the economic boom and martial law under chiang-kuo and therefore having a more positive view of the KMT, while Younger generations grew up under Chen and Lee-teng hui and with the missile strait crisis, and the 70+ maybe still witnessed the 228 Incident and therefore being more pro-DPP?   

(Also the Matsu Islands have a huge statue of Mazu and when i visited Nangan i think they said something about Mazu being seen as the protector of the Islands from the PRC and the reason why they were not invaded, so i expect guo to do very well there)

Most of this has to do with the unique role Ko is playing as he is taking different parts of the Blue and Green coalitions. 

The 2004 exit poll in a 50/50 race between DPP Chen and KMT Lien is instructive on Blue vs Green support by age and education

                        KMT Lien        DPP Chen
Total                    50                 50
20-24(14%)         40                 60
25-29(15%)         43                 57
30-39(26%)          55                45
40-49(23%)          57                43
50-59(14%)          50                50
60+(8%)               44                56

Chen was shot the day before the election which created a sympathy wave pushing up youth turnout helping him to win.

Exit poll by education
                                              KMT Lien        DPP Chen
Total                                         50                    50
Elementary school (9%)             30                     70
Middle School (10%)                  35                     65
High School(30%)                      50                    50
Vocational School(20%)              58                    42
College(32%)                            56                    44

DPP stronger with those with low education and KMT stronger with those with high education.  Those with low education tends to be older and the Green strength in the 60+ group are those with low education.

What Ko did with his anti-politics appeal was to eat into the youth vote of the DPP but also the educated middle age vote of the KMT  but had very little impact on older lowly educated voters.

As for why this is it has more to do with cost-benefits of economic integration with Mainland China  Those who are higher educated tend to see benefits with economic connections with Mainland China as their skills will be at a premium and vice versa for those with lower education.  This logic is somewhat reversing itself as the PRC moves up the value chain quite rapidly.  DPP strength among the elderly is mostly explained by the split by education.  Middle aged voters tend to more economic voters so they lean Blue.  I think the youth of this generation is more anti-KMT than normal due to the growing economic threat of the PRC as it moves up the value chain so quickly that now Mainland coastal provinces are now economically at par with Taiwan Province and are now competing head to head for economic opportunities.

As for Mazu there are believers in all parts of the Southern Greater Chinese world so believers will ascribe to it whatever political goals they have at that time.

[jaichind]

UDN poll

DPP primary (Tsai catching up) (diff from Dec 2018)

         All voters      Green voters
Tsai     25(+11)          51(+25)
Lai      35(-11)           38(-19)

It seems DPP High command (aka Tsai cronies) should go from a "closed" primary


KMT primary (I suspect Guo will go up from here)

              All voters      Blue voters    Green voters
Han            26                48                   7
Guo            19                23                 17
Chu1          13                13                 16
Wang          11                 4                 26

Guo has cross partisan appeal and most likely gain with Blue voters with time as well


General election

KMT Han 36 Ko 26 DPP Tsai 20
KMT Guo 31 Ko 27 DPP Tsai 20
Ko 34 KMT Chu 25 DPP Tsai 20
Ko 39 DPP Tsai 19 KMT Wang 13

KMT Han 36 Ko 26 DPP Lai 21
KMT Guo 38 Ko 28 DPP Lai 22
Ko 34 KMT Chu 23 DPP Lai 23
Ko 39 DPP Lai 24 KMT Wang 11

Main problem for Lai is that he only does marginally better than Tsai.  His entire primary challenge is based on the fact that he will be a better candidate in the general election.  It seems Tsai's strategy of delaying and waiting out Lai is working.  The chances that Tsai will be the DPP candidate is going up by the day.

[LoneStarDem]

Not to further compound Tsai's problems, but Taiwan is closely monitoring the elections in Solomon Islands amid concerns that the island country might bolt to PRC despite the Taiwanese Foreign Ministry & Co., visiting the Solomon Islands recently a few months ago.

[jaichind]

Han came out with a statement that he cannot, under the current rules, enter himself into the KMT primary but along the way took pot shots at KMT High command for pushing Guo into the race.  In response the KMT changed its primary rules to make the KMT nomination 100% based on polls versus the 70% based on polls and 30% based on party member vote (which gives Han a better chance).  It also changed the rules that the KMT gets to pull people into the race without that person throwing himself or herself into the races.  In other words now the KMT will just put Han's name into the KMT primary without Han having to face the problem how to explain to the Kaohsiung electorate and City assembly on why he is joining the KMT primary just after being elected.  The date of the primary will be in June.

It seems for now for the KMT the crisis is over.   Chu and Wang will complain but it seems the path to KMT victory in 2020 is to get the pro-Guo and pro-Han forces to unite.

[jaichind]

Latest xfutures odds on KMT nominee

Guo    49
Han    37
Chu    11
Wang   3

[LoneStarDem]

IF Tsai survives the Primary (or whatever the DPP is pulling), who is the person she would prefer to destroy easily in a landslide by double digits ?

[jaichind]

IF Tsai survives the Primary (or whatever the DPP is pulling), who is the person she would prefer to destroy easily in a landslide by double digits ?

The weakest KMT candidate would be Wang, but if a wounded Tsai enters the race against Wang then for sure Ko will get into the race and most likely win.

[jaichind]

Latest TVBS poll

The main headline is the revival of Ko despite being out of the news

3 way

KMT Han 42 Ko 25 DPP Tsai 22
KMT Han 41 Ko 25 DPP Lai 24
KMT Guo 31 Ko 28 DPP Tsai 22
KMT Guo 30 Ko 27 DPP Lai 24
Ko 33 KMT Chu 26  DPP Tsai 22
Ko 32 KMT Chu 26 DPP Lai 23
Ko 37 DPP Tsai 22 KMT Wang 15
Ko 36 DPP Lai 24 KMT Wang 14

Ko clearly gaining ground relative to the KMT given recent conflict within KMT over its nomination process

Note that DPP Tsai always has around 22 and DPP Lai around 24  no matter what.  In a 3 way race this is actually a high floor but a low ceiling.  This represents the DPP core.

2 way

KMT Han 51 DPP Tsai 33
KMT Han 50 DPP Lai 36
KMT Guo 44 DPP Tsai 33
KMT Guo 42 DPP Lai 37
KMT Chu 40  DPP Tsai 33
DPP Lai 39 KMT Chu 36
DPP Tsai 34 KMT Wang 28
DPP Lai 41 KMT Wang 24

The Ko vote contains a good section of the anti-Tsai but pan-Green vote that will come home to Lai in a 2 way race but not Tsai. 

So the hierarchy of candidates are:

KMT Han > KMT Guo > Ko > DPP Lai > KMT Chu > DPP Tsai > KMT Wang

[LoneStarDem]

Could Tsai lose the DPP Primary if things get worse ?

[jaichind]

Oh, same TVBS poll on KMT and DPP primaries

KMT primary
Han    38
Guo    18
Wang  14
Chu    11

Seems like there is a lot of overlap between Han and Chu

DPP Primary
Lai     39
Tsai    24

[jaichind]

Could Tsai lose the DPP Primary if things get worse ?

I think the situation for Tsai is getting better and better. In head to head matchups in various polls she is not really doing that much worse than Lai.  I think that fact and that she enjoys greater support with Pan-Green voters means that by hook or crook she and DPP High command will push her over the finishing line. 

[jaichind]

A key Lai supporter Wu(吳祥輝) who has a long time activist for DPP as well as radical Taiwan Independence supporter came out to attack Tsai as a "Political Whore" which had to be walked back by the Lai bloc.  

But this incident which clearly shows significant gender bias toward Tsai within the anti-Tsai bloc within the DPP that on paper is progressive demonstrates my point that the anti-Tsai movement within the DPP is on paper the radical Taiwan Independence bloc coming out to attack "moderate" Tsai but is more about the social conservative bloc's dissatisfaction with Tsai's more socially liberal leanings plus the fact that she is an unmarried women without children.  

I showed this diagram several times and will show it again where it shows that the core DPP vote are socially conservative (upper left) even though the DPP activist youth are progressive (upper right) with the DPP MPs in the middle.  The KMT MPs and KMT vote base are much more united on their social views.  What united the DPP was their opposition to unification (upper part of the chart) and the KMT their opposition to Independence (lower part of the chart).  But the hidden danger for the DPP has always been that if social issues gains salience they might actually blow up.  

[jaichind]

Chinatimes poll (pro-Han)

KMT primary
Han    34.2
Guo    16.3
Wang  11.0
Chu      7.0

DPP primary
Lai      32.0
Tsai     23.6


2 way battle
KMT Han 49.6 DPP Tsai 30.4
KMT Han 47.2 DPP Lai 32.9
KMT Guo 45.6 DPP Tsai 30.3
KMT Han 43.0 DPP Lai 33.1

3 way
KMT Han 41.1 Ko 25.0 DPP Tsai 20.9
KMT Han 40.1 Ko 25.4 DPP Tsai 21.1

If Han does not win KMT primary and runs as independent (it is almost impossible that both Han and Ko run as independents)

Han         27.5
KMT Guo  19.4
Ko           16.9
DPP Tsai   15.0

[jaichind]

Xfuture markets odds

KMT nomination
Guo    45
Han    41
Chu    10
Wang   4

DPP nomination
Tsai   57
Lai    43

Both markets seems to indicate the power of the preference of "insiders" in the KMT and DPP.  While polls show Han and Lai are ahead in polls the insiders of both parties prefer Guo and Tsai respectively.