ROC President and Legislative elections Jan 11 2020

[LoneStarDem]

What about the rumors of the DPP pushing Lai to take the VP spot ?

[jaichind]

What about the rumors of the DPP pushing Lai to take the VP spot ?

Well, the Tsai camp is clearly pushing that but Lai refuse to budge insisting that the primary process finishes first then work out who is Prez and who is VP on the ticket.  Lai had said that if he loses the primary he will 100% support Tsai in the general election.  Tsai seems to refuse to make the same pledge.  I think Tsai is using the Trump tactic of 2016 GOP primaries,.  By threatening a independent run Trump got GOP voters interesting in winning 2016 to back Trump as the alternative almost certainly mean defeat in the 2016 general election if Trump runs as an independent.   

[LoneStarDem]

What about the rumors of the DPP pushing Lai to take the VP spot ?

Well, the Tsai camp is clearly pushing that but Lai refuse to budge insisting that the primary process finishes first then work out who is Prez and who is VP on the ticket.  Lai had said that if he loses the primary he will 100% support Tsai in the general election.  Tsai seems to refuse to make the same pledge.  I think Tsai is using the Trump tactic of 2016 GOP primaries,.  By threatening a independent run Trump got GOP voters interesting in winning 2016 to back Trump as the alternative almost certainly mean defeat in the 2016 general election if Trump runs as an independent.   

Tsai pulling a Trump-like reelection campaign ?

[jaichind]

"Taiwanese tycoon Terry Gou gets tips from Donald Trump over presidential bid"

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/taiwanese-tycoon-terry-gou-gets-tips-from-donald-trump-over-presidential-bid

[jaichind]

Tsai pulling a Trump-like reelection campaign ?

Perhaps.  It could work in a 3 way race.  Tsai's ceiling is pretty low but on the other hand her floor is not too bad in a 3 way race.  Trump is is in a much stronger position where is high floor low ceiling situation could give him a win if there are some 3rd party candidates pus a stronger turnout in his base.  In a 2 way race I think Tsai would have huge problems.  In a 3 way race she could rally a strong turnout by her core DPP base on perhaps win if there is a last minute Ko collapse.

[LoneStarDem]

Tsai pulling a Trump-like reelection campaign ?

Perhaps.  It could work in a 3 way race.  Tsai's ceiling is pretty low but on the other hand her floor is not too bad in a 3 way race.  Trump is is in a much stronger position where is high floor low ceiling situation could give him a win if there are some 3rd party candidates pus a stronger turnout in his base.  In a 2 way race I think Tsai would have huge problems.  In a 3 way race she could rally a strong turnout by her core DPP base on perhaps win if there is a last minute Ko collapse.

Tsai better get her foreign policy in order & UP her game because she's getting tested by PRC, etc.,

[jaichind]

The most recent development in the DPP primary is that the pro-Tsai forces are now trying add in new rules in the polling process so that in include cell phones.  The basic idea is that Tsai is stronger than Lai among the youth so this sort of change will benefit her.  Of course Lai forces are fighting against this.

Current xfutures odds which has not changed that much last couple of weeks

DPP nominee
Tsai  59.5
Lai    40.5

KMT nominee
Han    46
Guo    40
Chu    10
Wang    3

[LoneStarDem]

The most recent development in the DPP primary is that the pro-Tsai forces are now trying add in new rules in the polling process so that in include cell phones.  The basic idea is that Tsai is stronger than Lai among the youth so this sort of change will benefit her.  Of course Lai forces are fighting against this.

Current xfutures odds which has not changed that much last couple of weeks

DPP nominee
Tsai  59.5
Lai    40.5

KMT nominee
Han    46
Guo    40
Chu    10
Wang    3

She's in good shape for the DPP Primary for Taiwanese President, but in the GE: it's a whole different story.

[jaichind]

The most recent development in the DPP primary is that the pro-Tsai forces are now trying add in new rules in the polling process so that in include cell phones.  The basic idea is that Tsai is stronger than Lai among the youth so this sort of change will benefit her.  Of course Lai forces are fighting against this.

Current xfutures odds which has not changed that much last couple of weeks

DPP nominee
Tsai  59.5
Lai    40.5

KMT nominee
Han    46
Guo    40
Chu    10
Wang    3

She's in good shape for the DPP Primary for Taiwanese President, but in the GE: it's a whole different story.

Frankly given how Tsai is able to get back into contention in the DPP primary through hook or crook I think her chances in a 3 way race in the general election is underestimated. 

[jaichind]

Despite referendum results to the contrary, the DPP majority passed a Gay Marriage law.  The main compromise given the clear mandate against Gay Marriage in last year's referendum is that the law will not say "Gay Marriage" but say "a Gay couple can be in a state of marriage."  That way Southern DPP MPs can still say to their socially conservative supporters: "Marriage is only between a man an a women but all we did we say gay couples can be in marriage like state"

On the whole I think Tsai played this correctly.  I think the gay marriage issue which really blew up the DPP in 2018 will have less salience in 2020 if Tsai gets it out of the way, lock up her Northern Progressive voters and then shift the election to relationship with Mainland China and hope her DPP Southern socially conservative base just moves on.  It will not 100% work but DPP held a bad hand here to she is doing what makes the most sense to minimize losses.

Separately the Lai camp have agreed to allow cell phones in the DPP Prez primary whenever it is held.  The chances of a Tsai victory in the DPP primary and in fact the general election is going up.

[LoneStarDem]

Sounds like Solomon Islands is putting Tsai & Co., on notice.

[jaichind]

Looks like the pro-Tsai camp was going to force their preferred plan for the Primary past the DPP Central Committee but got ambushed by Lai last minute. 

What Tsai wanted is
a) The poll is 50/50 land line and cell phone
b) The poll is a 3 way match comparison on how Tsai and Lai does respectively in a 3 way race with KMT Han and Ko.

The reason is at this stage the DPP base is split into 3 blocs.  The local core DPP vote, the marginal DPP or ex-DPP vote, and the progressive youth.  The way Tsai figures it, in a 2 way poll match-up with KMT Han, the marginal DPP voter will back Lai but will be for Han.  The progressive youth will be for Lai and Tsai over Han.  The core DPP vote will be for Lai and Tsai no matter what.  But in a 3 way race the marginal  DPP voter will vote Ko no matter what.  The progressive youth will split their vote between Ko and DPP but will lean Tsai over Lai relative to Ko.  So the Tsai camp is to make sure the poll is 3 way and mobile phones which are progressive youth heavy are included.

If this plan gets passed then Lai is in trouble.  But there is a solid majority of Tsai cronies that will pass this. So in desperation Lai through out his proposal.
 
a) The poll should be comparison of Lai and Tsai vs Han respectively
b) Open to using mobile phones but not 50/50
c) If Tsai beats Han then Lai will back Tsai no matter how he does against Han
b) If Lai loses to Han then Lai will back Tsai no matter how Tsai does against Han 
e) If Lai bets Han but Han beat Tsai then Lai want to be come the DPP nominee

This gambit is positioning the Lai camp to be all about DPP winning the general election and projecting the Tsai camp about about rigging the rules for her to win.  Lai's gamble is that in a 2 way poll the pro-Lai vote will come to back him while in a Han vs Tsai poll the pro-Lai vote will be split between Tsai and Han.  Lai further gambles that given the media coverage of the DPP primary he might overtake Han in the poll and emerge as the candidate.

The DPP high command was forced to stop the steamroll and halt to consider his proposal for another week halting the pro-Tsai railroad of the process. 

[jaichind]

Current xfutures odds has moved in the direction of Lai and Guo

DPP nominee
Tsai  56.5
Lai    43.5

KMT nominee
Guo    47
Han    41
Chu      9
Wang    3

[LoneStarDem]

Tsai still needs something to go her way.

[jaichind]

DPP, over Lai's objection, came out with the primary method and schedule. 
1) The DPP primary will be 50 land/50 cell
2) The poll will be to see which DPP candidate (Tsai or Lai) does better in a 3 way contest against KMT Han and Ko
3) There will be a Tsai vs Lai debate 6/8
4) Polling will take place 6/10 to 6/14 (I assume several polling firms will be engaged)
5) 6/19 results announced

The pundit consensus is that Tsai will win given how she has kept Lai out the news and the structure of the DPP primary elevates her youth support while the anti-Tsai DPP vote will back Ko in polls taking away Lai's main advatnage

Xfutures markets does not agree

DPP nominee
Lai     51
Tsai    49
 
Lai chances shot up since now the path where DPP just cancels the primaries and just nominates Tsai has been avoided

meanwhile xfutures market for KMT nominee has Han's chances shooting up mainly due to recent allegations that Han is having a affair which seems so trumped up it pulled in sympathy support for Han

KMT nominee
Han       48
Guo       38
Chu       10
Wang      2

[LoneStarDem]

Tsai isolating Lai.

[jaichind]

Monster pro-Han rally on Sat in Taipei in response to allegations that Han had an affair and has a lovechild.  The Han camp claimed the size of the rally was 400K but most likely it more like 150K-200K. One way or another it is impressive given it was a rainy day.

[jaichind]

The pro-Lai camp forces are now claiming that the pro-Tsai camp is collecting a large number of cell phone numbers in order to influence the DPP primaries.  It also seems that the pro-Tsai camp intends to find out exactly when the polls will be conducted by the pollsters so they can coordinate their forces to be next to their phones when the polls will be conducted.   

[jaichind]

Ettoday got a "leaked" internal Tsai camp poll which has it at

KMT Han 32 DPP Tsai 26 Ko 24
KMT Han 30 Ko 28 DPP Lai 24

when with the poll being down the way the primary poll will be done (50/50 between land lines and cell phones.)  This internal poll show what gives Tsai the edge is the youth vote (20-29) where it is Ko 42 Tsai 33 Han 13 but with Lai it is Ko 57 Lai 17 Han 12.  This "internal" poll is exactly the sort of result the Tsai camp had in mind when the wanted a) Ko to be part of the DPP primary poll and b) it has to have 50% cell phone to make sure that the relative strength of Tsai with the youth is factored in and for Ko to take way the pro-Tsai youth vote from Lai.

[scutosaurus]

What exactly are the major differences between the policy positions of Ko and the DPP? His Wikipedia article says that he shares their "strategic goals" and that he's considered to be a member of the pan-green coalition, but I'd assume that he wouldn't be running if they were truly aligned given that it appears to jeopardize the pan-green coalition's chance at the presidency.

[jaichind]

What exactly are the major differences between the policy positions of Ko and the DPP? His Wikipedia article says that he shares their "strategic goals" and that he's considered to be a member of the pan-green coalition, but I'd assume that he wouldn't be running if they were truly aligned given that it appears to jeopardize the pan-green coalition's chance at the presidency.

Ko does not have a set policy position other than to be the representative of the anti-politics.  Ko does come from a Deep Green background when he was a doctor but always had an anti-establishment appeal.  In 2014 the DPP, tired of losing Taipei election after election, backed Ko to run as an independent to beat KMT's Lien (one trivia here was that in 2010 Ko actually as a doctor saved help Lien's life when Lien was mistakenly shot by an assassin when Lien was part of an KMT election rally and testify publicly that Lien's injuries were not faked as many DPP were claiming.)  Of course 2014 ended up being such an anti-KMT wave year that the DPP most likely could have won even if they ran one of their own.   

Before the DPP victory in 2016, Ko and the DPP were fairly aligned as Ko's main political message was anti-politics and iconoclasm so both took target at the KMT regime at the center.  After the DPP took over Ko started to opportunistically attack the DPP by taking non-conventional positions to provoke the DPP, distinguish himself from the DPP, and be consistent with his anti-politics image.  For example, what really provoked the DPP based was that he at times shifted to a even more pro-unification position than the KMT.  He said "Mainland China and Taiwan are part of one family and there is nothing we cannot discuss as part of the same family" which frankly only radical Chinese unificationists like the NP or myself would dare say.  Ko's strategy in 2017-2018 seem to be that given things were not going well with the DPP regime after 2016 and the KMT going nowhere in their revival, he can run in 2020 and position himself that can work with the PRC and at the same time get the PRC to give up on working with the KMT.   The KMT revival of 2018 seems to have undermined this strategy so he is moving to a more centrist but still anti-politics positions.

All in all Ko, if he runs, will cut into both the KMT and DPP votes equally and will appeal to the youth.  Him running will help the DPP at the legislative level as demoralized DPP youth voters will come out in 2020 if Ko is on the ballot and most likely vote DPP downballot. 

[jaichind]

Sounds like the DPP will get wiped out in 2020.

I wish that were true.  I think as long as Tsai wins the DPP primary by a decisive margin and not be seen as rigging the primary, with the Han-Guo conflict in the KMT and Ko running which adds volatility to the race the DPP has a real shot at winning.  The DPP right now is a good deal better positioned than in Jan 2019.  The KMT not being able to consolidate behind Guo or Han has throw away a landslide hand even if it still a winning hand.

[jaichind]

What about the Governorships & Mayoralties ? Can the DPP perform well down-ballot ?

Well there are only county and municipal elections which took place in 2018 already where the DPP got smashed

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=281097.250

There are no elections for governors. ROC only has 3 provinces.  Taiwan Province which include all counties/cites on the Island of Taiwan besides the 6 special cities (Taipei, New Taipei, Taoyuan, Tainan and Kaohsiung.)  There is Fuijan Province which now only has Kinmen County and Lienchiang County which are two islands of the rest of Fujian province controlled by the PRC and Guangdong Province which are really the South China Sea island.  There are appointed governors for these 3 provincial governments but they do not do much.  1994 was the first and only time ROC held an election for the  Governor of Taiwan Province.

Even under the DPP the role of Governor of Taiwan Province continues to exist.  If they get rid of it it would be the same as Taiwan Independence and the DPP regime can look forward to dealing with the PLA which will not end well for them.

[LoneStarDem]

What about the Governorships & Mayoralties ? Can the DPP perform well down-ballot ?

Well there are only county and municipal elections which took place in 2018 already where the DPP got smashed

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=281097.250

There are no elections for governors. ROC only has 3 provinces.  Taiwan Province which include all counties/cites on the Island of Taiwan besides the 6 special cities (Taipei, New Taipei, Taoyuan, Tainan and Kaohsiung.)  There is Fuijan Province which now only has Kinmen County and Lienchiang County which are two islands of the rest of Fujian province controlled by the PRC and Guangdong Province which are really the South China Sea island.  There are appointed governors for these 3 provincial governments but they do not do much.  1994 was the first and only time ROC held an election for the  Governor of Taiwan Province.

Even under the DPP the role of Governor of Taiwan Province continues to exist.  If they get rid of it it would be the same as Taiwan Independence and the DPP regime can look forward to dealing with the PLA which will not end well for them.

How awful is it for the DPP ? Assuming Tsai wins reelection in 2020, can the DPP rebound in the 2022 Midterms ?

[jaichind]

A key technicality of the DPP primary polls.  The winner is the candidate that has the ABSOLUTE highest level of support and NOT the RELATIVE highest level of support in a 3 way race.    Meaning if the polling average of the different pollsters came out with

KMT Han 44
DPP Tsai  30
Ko          18

KMT Han 36
DPP Lai   29
Ko          27

Tsai wins the primary since her level of support is higher. The fact she is blown out by Han by 14% while Lai is within 7% of Han is irrelevant.  In many ways this is why Tsai wanted the primary poll to be 3 way.  A lot of anti-Tsai ex-DPP supporter would back Ko is one reason.  But the core DPP vote might back Tsai in the poll but back Ko when Lai is the poll because of fear.  Fear that if Tsai loses she night blot from the DPP and run as an independent and destroy the DPP down-ballot.  The core DPP voter cannot in good conscious tell a pollster that they back Han but can tell the pollster that they back Ko over Lai but back Tsai over Ko.  This is the main reason that xfutures trading market have odds at Tsai 51 Lai 49 I think Tsai is a lock to win the DPP primary.  It is a very flawed primary but she will win.