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LoneStarDem
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Posts: 945
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« Reply #4 on: April 03, 2019, 09:19:07 AM » |
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I also note that Tsai's foreign policy has been a mixed bag considering 5 so-called "friends" dumped her since she's been in office:
1.) Panama: considering she visited the country back in 2016.
2.) Sao Tome & Principe
3.) Dominican Republic
4.) Burkina Faso
5.) El Salvador: Tsai also visited this country as well.
Well, this is not directly Tsai's fault. What took place in 2008 was the ROC and PRC agreed to a "diplomatic truce" based on the "1992 Consensus" which is: Both side agrees there is only One China but both sides get to proclaim what is that One China.
In 2016 DPP took over and choose to reject the "1992 Consensus" so the PRC went on the diplomatic offensive and poached a bunch of states that recognized the ROC. This is not longer the 1990s when both PRC and ROC were in the same league when it comes to cash to buy off micro-states to back ROC or not. The resource gap these days are just too massive in favor of PRC.
What can Tsai & the DPP do ? |
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LoneStarDem
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Posts: 945
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« Reply #5 on: April 05, 2019, 02:51:11 PM » |
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Well, this is not directly Tsai's fault. What took place in 2008 was the ROC and PRC agreed to a "diplomatic truce" based on the "1992 Consensus" which is: Both side agrees there is only One China but both sides get to proclaim what is that One China.
In 2016 DPP took over and choose to reject the "1992 Consensus" so the PRC went on the diplomatic offensive and poached a bunch of states that recognized the ROC. This is not longer the 1990s when both PRC and ROC were in the same league when it comes to cash to buy off micro-states to back ROC or not. The resource gap these days are just too massive in favor of PRC.
What can Tsai & the DPP do ?
Well, clearly Tsai and DPP are for Taiwan independence which is a dead end the way they are going about it. Putting myself in their shoes the way I would go about this would be to appeal directly to the population on Mainland China. Their line should be
"We totally acknowledge the people on Taiwan are of Chinese stock. We are just as proud as those of you on the Mainland at our common Chinese heritage. What are movement is about is not about separation of Taiwan from China per say but more about what is the best political system that will bring good results for the Chinese people. Our view is that a mega state of all Chinese is no longer viable in this fast paced modern world. If we Chinese split up into a couple dozen mini states (much like the Arab people have at least a dozen states) then each state can act quicker and be more nimble to adopt policies that will benefit its citizens. The success of the Chinese dominated state of Singapore is a good example of this. Let Taiwan form a separate Chinese state and let that be a beacon on how we can form many smaller Chinese states. We Chinese in these smaller Chinese states can even work together in some sort of EU-like or Commonwealth form in recognition of our common Chinese heritage."
That would be a way to make the argument for Taiwan Independence and potentially get that to work without a war that Taiwan is destined to lose.
I view Taiwan as an independent country, but I do agree with you that they need to up their game & take a look at how Singapore did it back then. |
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LoneStarDem
Jr. Member
Posts: 945
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« Reply #15 on: May 01, 2019, 06:09:20 PM » |
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What about the rumors of the DPP pushing Lai to take the VP spot ?
Well, the Tsai camp is clearly pushing that but Lai refuse to budge insisting that the primary process finishes first then work out who is Prez and who is VP on the ticket. Lai had said that if he loses the primary he will 100% support Tsai in the general election. Tsai seems to refuse to make the same pledge. I think Tsai is using the Trump tactic of 2016 GOP primaries,. By threatening a independent run Trump got GOP voters interesting in winning 2016 to back Trump as the alternative almost certainly mean defeat in the 2016 general election if Trump runs as an independent.
Tsai pulling a Trump-like reelection campaign ? |
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LoneStarDem
Jr. Member
Posts: 945
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« Reply #16 on: May 09, 2019, 04:32:57 PM » |
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Tsai pulling a Trump-like reelection campaign ?
Perhaps. It could work in a 3 way race. Tsai's ceiling is pretty low but on the other hand her floor is not too bad in a 3 way race. Trump is is in a much stronger position where is high floor low ceiling situation could give him a win if there are some 3rd party candidates pus a stronger turnout in his base. In a 2 way race I think Tsai would have huge problems. In a 3 way race she could rally a strong turnout by her core DPP base on perhaps win if there is a last minute Ko collapse.
Tsai better get her foreign policy in order & UP her game because she's getting tested by PRC, etc., |
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LoneStarDem
Jr. Member
Posts: 945
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« Reply #17 on: May 13, 2019, 12:49:02 PM » |
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The most recent development in the DPP primary is that the pro-Tsai forces are now trying add in new rules in the polling process so that in include cell phones. The basic idea is that Tsai is stronger than Lai among the youth so this sort of change will benefit her. Of course Lai forces are fighting against this.
Current xfutures odds which has not changed that much last couple of weeks
DPP nominee
Tsai 59.5
Lai 40.5
KMT nominee
Han 46
Guo 40
Chu 10
Wang 3
She's in good shape for the DPP Primary for Taiwanese President, but in the GE: it's a whole different story. |
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LoneStarDem
Jr. Member
Posts: 945
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« Reply #21 on: June 05, 2019, 01:42:58 PM » |
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What about the Governorships & Mayoralties ? Can the DPP perform well down-ballot ?
Well there are only county and municipal elections which took place in 2018 already where the DPP got smashed
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=281097.250
There are no elections for governors. ROC only has 3 provinces. Taiwan Province which include all counties/cites on the Island of Taiwan besides the 6 special cities (Taipei, New Taipei, Taoyuan, Tainan and Kaohsiung.) There is Fuijan Province which now only has Kinmen County and Lienchiang County which are two islands of the rest of Fujian province controlled by the PRC and Guangdong Province which are really the South China Sea island. There are appointed governors for these 3 provincial governments but they do not do much. 1994 was the first and only time ROC held an election for the Governor of Taiwan Province.
Even under the DPP the role of Governor of Taiwan Province continues to exist. If they get rid of it it would be the same as Taiwan Independence and the DPP regime can look forward to dealing with the PLA which will not end well for them.
How awful is it for the DPP ? Assuming Tsai wins reelection in 2020, can the DPP rebound in the 2022 Midterms ? |
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LoneStarDem
Jr. Member
Posts: 945
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« Reply #22 on: June 07, 2019, 10:07:26 AM » |
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How awful is it for the DPP ? Assuming Tsai wins reelection in 2020, can the DPP rebound in the 2022 Midterms ?
It was not that bad in terms of vote share for pan-Blue camp was not that high but losing Kaohsiung and Yilan which are core DPP cities/county gave the perception that it was a DPP disaster even though popular DPP incumbents won on cross-partisan appeal to over-perform in KMT core cities/counties like Keelung, Hsinchu City, and Taoyuan City. Also DPP came in a humiliating 3rd place in Taipei City. If the KMT wins in 2020 I expected a solid rebound for the DPP in the 2022 local elections.
Tsai still has a possibility of winning reelection in 2020 considering the PRC hates her & sees her as Obama with a v****. |
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