Emerson national: Trump -10 to +2

[GeorgiaModerate]

Emerson, March 17-18, 1153 RV

Biden 55, Trump 45
Harris 52, Trump 48
Sanders 51, Trump 49
Warren 51, Trump 49
Trump 51, O'Rourke 49

Trump approval: 43/50 (was 43/51 last month)

[MT Treasurer]

Eh, I really don’t see how any Democrat loses the PV in 2020. That said, if this is accurate (big if), only Biden would win in the EC.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Eh, I really don’t see how any Democrat loses the PV in 2020. That said, if this is accurate (big if), only Biden would win in the EC.

I actually think it means a very narrow Harris win as well. +4 should win her MI and PA.

[RI]

Eh, I really don’t see how any Democrat loses the PV in 2020. That said, if this is accurate (big if), only Biden would win in the EC.

I actually think it means a very narrow Harris win as well. +4 should win hef MI and PA.

Maybe, but I doubt a Harris +4 looks like a Clinton +4. Harris probably outperforms Clinton in CA, for starters.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Eh, I really don’t see how any Democrat loses the PV in 2020. That said, if this is accurate (big if), only Biden would win in the EC.

Harris will carry the EC along with WI with a strong Veep with Convvention in WI and Walker fatugue

[OSR stands with Israel]

Biden is by far the best candidate the Dems could nominate and he almost certainly will beat Trump

[UWS]

Eh, I really don’t see how any Democrat loses the PV in 2020. That said, if this is accurate (big if), only Biden would win in the EC.

I actually think it means a very narrow Harris win as well. +4 should win her MI and PA.

And Wisconsin, one of the three states that handed victory to Trump, still goes to Trump and he still wins with 270 electoral votes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is by far the best candidate the Dems could nominate and he almost certainly will beat Trump

No he isnt, Dems want a progressive, not Biden

[GeorgiaModerate]

Biden is by far the best candidate the Dems could nominate and he almost certainly will beat Trump

No he isnt, Dems want a progressive, not Biden

I agree with OSR.  Democrats will vote for almost any D against Trump.  Biden would pull in more of the middle than any of the others.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Eh, I really don’t see how any Democrat loses the PV in 2020. That said, if this is accurate (big if), only Biden would win in the EC.

I actually think it means a very narrow Harris win as well. +4 should win hef MI and PA.

Maybe, but I doubt a Harris +4 looks like a Clinton +4. Harris probably outperforms Clinton in CA, for starters.

Trump has a lot more room to fall in the Texas suburbs than the California ones that would account for a lot of the 2% worse in the PV

Trump will beat Harris in Texas by 7-8 points, still an underperformance from 2016  in an election where I think Harris would barely outperform Hillary nationally

[GeorgiaModerate]

Eh, I really don’t see how any Democrat loses the PV in 2020. That said, if this is accurate (big if), only Biden would win in the EC.

I actually think it means a very narrow Harris win as well. +4 should win hef MI and PA.

Maybe, but I doubt a Harris +4 looks like a Clinton +4. Harris probably outperforms Clinton in CA, for starters.

Trump has a lot more room to fall in the Texas suburbs than the California ones that would account for a lot of the 2% worse in the PV

Trump will beat Harris in Texas by 7-8 points, still an underperformance from 2016  in an election where I think Harris would barely outperform Hillary nationally

Nice crystal ball you have there; is she gonna win the primaries 2?

Sorry, your free trial is over.  You have to subscribe to get that information.

[henster]

Really tired of Emerson's no undecideds poll it doesn't look credible.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Not terrible, but not great either for Democrats overall.

[S019]

Competitive GE

But Biden makes it Lean D

Which is basically the consensus

[Xing]

I doubt that Biden will pull in as many "moderates" if he becomes the ring-leader of the anti-white male hate group known as the Democratic Party. If Biden's numbers hold up months after he's entered the race, I'll concede that I was wrong, but we're seen this play out before. Democrats aren't going to beat Trump by appealing to so-called moderates, despite what many on Atlas want to believe. They tried that in 2016 (as well as many years before.) They're going to win the way they did in 2018, by beating Republicans when it comes to base turnout. Now, if people want to argue that Biden is the best candidate to juice up Democratic turnout... well, be my guest.

[S019]

I doubt that Biden will pull in as many "moderates" if he becomes the ring-leader of the anti-white male hate group known as the Democratic Party. If Biden's numbers hold up months after he's entered the race, I'll concede that I was wrong, but we're seen this play out before. Democrats aren't going to beat Trump by appealing to so-called moderates, despite what many on Atlas want to believe. They tried that in 2016 (as well as many years before.) They're going to win the way they did in 2018, by beating Republicans when it comes to base turnout. Now, if people want to argue that Biden is the best candidate to juice up Democratic turnout... well, be my guest.

The midterms were won in suburban districts with moderates

If Tom Malinowski had the views of Bernie Sanders would he have won, if Sean Casten had views like Elizabeth Warren would he have won, if Sherrill, Torres Small, and McAdams campaigned as Justice Democrats would they have won. That is the answer why Democrats must run moderates

[junior chįmp]

The polls are never wrong this early.

[Xing]

I doubt that Biden will pull in as many "moderates" if he becomes the ring-leader of the anti-white male hate group known as the Democratic Party. If Biden's numbers hold up months after he's entered the race, I'll concede that I was wrong, but we're seen this play out before. Democrats aren't going to beat Trump by appealing to so-called moderates, despite what many on Atlas want to believe. They tried that in 2016 (as well as many years before.) They're going to win the way they did in 2018, by beating Republicans when it comes to base turnout. Now, if people want to argue that Biden is the best candidate to juice up Democratic turnout... well, be my guest.

The midterms were won in suburban districts with moderates

If Tom Malinowski had the views of Bernie Sanders would he have won, if Sean Casten had views like Elizabeth Warren would he have won, if Sherrill, Torres Small, and McAdams campaigned as Justice Democrats would they have won. That is the answer why Democrats must run moderates

McAdams probably needed to run as a blue dog, but more liberal Democrats absolutely could've won in IL-06 and NJ-07 (although Casten is hardly "moderate".) Most "swing" voters or voters who don't regularly vote don't vote based on ideology. They vote based on who makes them feel better/understood. If progressive Democrats can't win in swing states, why did Baldwin and Brown win so convincingly? The midterms were won because more Democrats turned out.

[junior chįmp]

I doubt that Biden will pull in as many "moderates" if he becomes the ring-leader of the anti-white male hate group known as the Democratic Party. If Biden's numbers hold up months after he's entered the race, I'll concede that I was wrong, but we're seen this play out before. Democrats aren't going to beat Trump by appealing to so-called moderates, despite what many on Atlas want to believe. They tried that in 2016 (as well as many years before.) They're going to win the way they did in 2018, by beating Republicans when it comes to base turnout. Now, if people want to argue that Biden is the best candidate to juice up Democratic turnout... well, be my guest.

Trump will be alot harder to beat in the absence of a recession. The only thing Democrats have going for them is shifting demographics. Of course Biden leads polls now but those polls are meaningless this early. If he does lose, it'll follow that predictable pattern of first he'll become the nominee, the polls then will tighten because the voters dont notice anything other than a good economy and dont give a shít about Trump's behavior or scandals. Then people will blame the polls narrowing on "gaffes" or a "poorly run campaign" etc etc.... and then everyone will act all surprised and attribute the blame to whatever narrative most coincides with the political agenda/ candidate they are trying to push.

[Thatkat04]

Eh, I really don’t see how any Democrat loses the PV in 2020. That said, if this is accurate (big if), only Biden would win in the EC.

Why is this the assumption everyones making now. Trump won PA, MI and WI by such small margins that a 2% PV win could easily swing the EC back towards the democrats. This sounds like another case of "democrats need to win the house by 7 to win" type situation.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Really tired of Emerson's no undecideds poll it doesn't look credible.

[Adam Griffin]

The midterms were won in suburban districts with moderates

At least with regard to the House, there was a specific geography at play that made it so: Democrats had to compete there because winning a majority through any other pathway was impossible. However, it's worth noting that Democrats also carried 12 of the 20 Obama-Trump districts.

At any rate, a presidential election is different because the boundaries are different; the current configuration of House and state legislative races are/were built mostly by the GOP in 2011 and around a simple (if outdated) premise: that the Obama Coalition was comprised of low-turnout flakes and that suburban voters would remain reliably GOP.

In other words and more so in presidential elections, a vote is a vote. In legislative races, it's much different.

[RFayette]

Reports seem to indicate Trump fears Biden most, and this data is certainly consistent with that.