What if May wins the mandate she was expected to win in 2017
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  What if May wins the mandate she was expected to win in 2017
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Author Topic: What if May wins the mandate she was expected to win in 2017  (Read 1420 times)
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Computer89
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« on: March 20, 2019, 12:43:41 AM »

Say Corbyn is never able to mount a huge comeback in the last 3 weeks and the Tories get around 380-400 seats everyone thought they would have until those last few weeks how would have things been different now.

Would May be able to get her Brexit Deal Passed
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AndyHogan14
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« Reply #1 on: March 20, 2019, 01:17:28 AM »

It really depends...there are really three key factions within the Tory Party right now and which faction benefited the most as a result of a 2017 landslide? The ERG? Pro-Remain Tories like Soubry/Grieve looking for a soft Brexit?

One big positive though would be that the DUP would have limited power over this government as a result of a Tory landslide which might make negotiating a bit easier.
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Pericles
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« Reply #2 on: March 25, 2019, 10:34:35 PM »

Perhaps a result like this?
2017 UK election
Theresa May-Conservative: 377+47 49.0%(+11.2%)
Jeremy Corbyn-Labour: 208-24 36.0%(+4.8%)
Nicola Sturgeon-SNP: 32-24 3.0%(-1.9%)
Tim Farron(lost seat)-LibDem: 10+2 7.3%(-0.8%)
650 seats
326 for majority
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #3 on: May 26, 2019, 01:59:38 AM »
« Edited: August 03, 2021, 03:39:04 AM by brucejoel99 »

A Tory landslide would've avoided the need for (& expense of) DUP support. The DUP wouldn't have been able to stop May's concession of keeping Northern Ireland in the customs union & single market in order to avoid a hard border.

May herself would've asserted more authority over her government, so Hammond definitely would've been sacked.

Her deal probably would've passed through the Commons unscathed as well, free of any pesky amendments & ministerial concessions.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #4 on: June 20, 2019, 05:13:57 AM »

This is simple:

Corbyn is out as Labour leader. They get a better, more CenterLeft (not Left) leader.

Meanwhile Parliament passes the BrExit deal easily and the Brexit mess passes.

in 2020 there is a dramatic swing to Labour and they sweep into No.10 with 360 seats.
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thumb21
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« Reply #5 on: June 20, 2019, 07:05:34 AM »
« Edited: June 20, 2019, 07:10:21 AM by thumb21 »

It depends how the campaign went. It is very plausible that the Tories still won a landslide even with the campaign meltdown given how far ahead they were. The campaign was deeply damaging to Theresa May's reputation, not only was her campaign terrible and Corbyn's strong, but a lot of damaging things also happened during and immediately after the campaign, such as the terrorist attacks, which exposed in part the impact of cuts; plus the grenfell fire which exposed a lack of adequate regulation. So, I don't think that Theresa May would have as much authority as it might seem. I don't think Corbyn would go easily. He'd be able to argue that he made the election closer than it otherwise would have been, and the Labour membership may well agree with that argument. The polls would remain steady as otl, Labour would rise in the polls in the months after the election before being fairly static with a 4-5 point Tory lead. As Labour would be a lot less powerful in a large Tory majority parliament, they would not be under so much scrutiny over their Brexit position and so they don't see a collapse in the polls as we see today. Theresa May's deal passes and Britain leaves the EU in March. Labour wins in 2022.

Overall, I think the biggest change is that the country would be less polarized as the issue won't be dragged out by extensions and an impasse in parliament.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #6 on: June 20, 2019, 04:19:04 PM »

This is simple:

Corbyn is out as Labour leader. They get a better, more CenterLeft (not Left) leader.

Meanwhile Parliament passes the BrExit deal easily and the Brexit mess passes.

in 2020 there is a dramatic swing to Labour and they sweep into No.10 with 360 seats.

This sounds pretty accurate.

Also the reason I might have considered to vote for the Tories as a tactical vote against Corbyn, because this guy is absolutely terrible. He would have lost the leadership following a massive defeat and weakened the far-left with his departure. Labour must get sane again and return to Blairism and New Labour.
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« Reply #7 on: June 20, 2019, 05:57:57 PM »

This is simple:

Corbyn is out as Labour leader. They get a better, more CenterLeft (not Left) leader.

Meanwhile Parliament passes the BrExit deal easily and the Brexit mess passes.

in 2020 there is a dramatic swing to Labour and they sweep into No.10 with 360 seats.

There wouldn’t be another election till 2022 and you think Labour could get a  swing to bring the Tories down from 400 all the way down to like 220 or so
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