France General Discussion IV: Yellow Fever

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

A new thread is needed, replacing the old one that started in 2017.

[Deep Dixieland Senator, Muad'dib (OSR MSR)]

A Franco-German joint parliament for better EU coordination

The French Assemblée nationale and the German Bundestag announced on Wednesday (20 March) that the two institutions approved the founding of a French-German Parliamentary Assembly. This will further deepen cooperation between the parliaments of both countries, the Bundestag said in a press release.

The new bilateral parliamentary chamber, which consists of 50 deputies each, will convene for the first time on 25 March 2019 in the Paris National Assembly.

The joint chamber is to meet at least twice a year in France and Germany under the joint chairmanship of President of the Bundestag Wolfgang Schäuble and his French counterpart Richard Ferrand. All political groups on the German and French sides will be represented.

The joint initiative will allow them to better share information in a bid to ultimately increase their EU influence in the decision-making procedures they feel are still predominantly in the hands of both governments in Paris and in Berlin.

They will jointly analyse EU legislative proposals so that they will better coordinate policies at an early stage of the decision-making process.

from euractiv dot com

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

The 'Tout doit disparaître' aspect hasn't been fully achieved yet but a good deal has been done

What for next title, 'Yellow Fever'? Bit simple but still relevant

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

The 'Tout doit disparaître' aspect hasn't been fully achieved yet but a good deal has been done

What for next title, 'Yellow Fever'? Bit simple but still relevant

Good idea.

[Lechasseur]

Polling for the Paris Mayoral Election next year, Hidalgo leads in the first round, LREM are not far off and the LR are falling in the polls:

https://www.lejdd.fr/Politique/sondage-sur-les-municipales-a-paris-les-quatre-eneignements-a-retenir-3879311?Echobox=1553419279&fbclid=IwAR0tNycrBb695X8_5IjTVlkdyFA6ZMLY7bLKQHmm2h29woAqjXkVScNAE5E#utm_medium=Social&xtor=CS1-3&utm_source=Facebook

Hidalgo leads in the first round, with the LREM candidate right behind her (24% and 22% respectively), and LR have lost a lot of support in the capital (polling at 16%) in the last couple of years: Fillon did much better in 2017 (he got 26% of the vote, 6 points above his national average), and NKM did to when she ran for mayor 5 years ago (she got around 35% of the vote).

All other candidates are well behind these 3. My prediction is either Hidalgo wins a second term or LREM take Paris City Hall, but I really can't see anyone else winning.

And I think this trend should be very worrying for LR, who have lost a huge chunk of their support in Paris and over half their support nationally since 2017 (for Paris though it doesn't help that it looks like the LR are going to be running a pretty divisive Sarkozy loyalist as their top candidate).

[PSOL]

So are my newsfeeds of the French military authorizing deadly force against the protesters true?

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

So are my newsfeeds of the French military authorizing deadly force against the protesters true?

It's not 'like this'

It's just that some military guys will now on replace some policemen to guard some places, to have more policemen to handle yellow vests protests, and the military governor of Paris just stated the basic rules for military people, 'if their life or someone else life is in danger, they are allowed to open fire if no other solution'

'Thats it'

Thats risky to pull out military personal yeah, but they said they put them in no sensitive places, we can just hope the situation doesnt turn 'awkward'

[Hash]

Hidalgo leads in the first round, with the LREM candidate right behind her (24% and 22% respectively), and LR have lost a lot of support in the capital (polling at 16%) in the last couple of years: Fillon did much better in 2017 (he got 26% of the vote, 6 points above his national average), and NKM did to when she ran for mayor 5 years ago (she got around 35% of the vote).

It's also a dreadful result for LREM, which is perhaps even more surprising than LR's bad numbers - FBM won over 34% in Paris in 2017, his best result of any department, and given that LREM is holding up relatively fine all things considered in EP polling (23%, which may imply up to 10 points higher in Paris). The reason, according to this poll's crosstabs, is that a lot of Macron's 2017 voters would support Hidalgo or EELV - which isn't too surprising, given that a lot of Macron's 2017 voters in Paris (and elsewhere) came from the 'moderate' left (Flanby et al. 2012).

And I think this trend should be very worrying for LR, who have lost a huge chunk of their support in Paris and over half their support nationally since 2017 (for Paris though it doesn't help that it looks like the LR are going to be running a pretty divisive Sarkozy loyalist as their top candidate).

Nothing is settled about the LR (or macronista) candidacy yet. Dati has a lot of enemies in the Parisian right (which is always in the midst of various internal conflicts and dramatic intrigues), who will probably do everything in their power to prevent her from being the party's candidate. Florence Berthout, the LR mayor of the 5th arrondissement, hasn't made her intentions public but she is also said to be interested by the mayoral candidacy - and she could, perhaps, be a better candidate than Dati, who is lousy (and lazy) and incompetent. The poll tested one scenario with Berthout and despite, I imagine, lower name recognition, she polls only 2 points less than Dati.

Also to note that Pierre-Yves Bournazel, the Agir ('constructifs') deputy and city councillor in the 18th arrdt. (running as a consensual, wishy-washy centrist/centre-right candidate), is polling 6-7% in all scenarios in which Dati is the candidate, and is also capturing a lot of votes from the right (and, to a lesser extent, macronismo). Interestingly, he drops to 4.5% in the matchup with Berthout, which suggests to me that Dati is pushing away more moderate/centre-right voters. According to the crosstabs, Dati is only holding a bit under half of Fillon 2017 voters, with 22% going LREM and 18% going for Bournazel.

Anyway, this is all a bit silly and meaningless so far out, especially given the decomposed dumpster fire that is the current French party system. It also doesn't take into account that Paris (and Lyon/Marseille) has a special electoral system in municipal election so it isn't actually a straight city-wide contest. The only sort of conclusion I'd draw from these numbers is that they presage a real hot mess.

[Lechasseur]

Hidalgo leads in the first round, with the LREM candidate right behind her (24% and 22% respectively), and LR have lost a lot of support in the capital (polling at 16%) in the last couple of years: Fillon did much better in 2017 (he got 26% of the vote, 6 points above his national average), and NKM did to when she ran for mayor 5 years ago (she got around 35% of the vote).

It's also a dreadful result for LREM, which is perhaps even more surprising than LR's bad numbers - FBM won over 34% in Paris in 2017, his best result of any department, and given that LREM is holding up relatively fine all things considered in EP polling (23%, which may imply up to 10 points higher in Paris). The reason, according to this poll's crosstabs, is that a lot of Macron's 2017 voters would support Hidalgo or EELV - which isn't too surprising, given that a lot of Macron's 2017 voters in Paris (and elsewhere) came from the 'moderate' left (Flanby et al. 2012).

And I think this trend should be very worrying for LR, who have lost a huge chunk of their support in Paris and over half their support nationally since 2017 (for Paris though it doesn't help that it looks like the LR are going to be running a pretty divisive Sarkozy loyalist as their top candidate).

Nothing is settled about the LR (or macronista) candidacy yet. Dati has a lot of enemies in the Parisian right (which is always in the midst of various internal conflicts and dramatic intrigues), who will probably do everything in their power to prevent her from being the party's candidate. Florence Berthout, the LR mayor of the 5th arrondissement, hasn't made her intentions public but she is also said to be interested by the mayoral candidacy - and she could, perhaps, be a better candidate than Dati, who is lousy (and lazy) and incompetent. The poll tested one scenario with Berthout and despite, I imagine, lower name recognition, she polls only 2 points less than Dati.

Also to note that Pierre-Yves Bournazel, the Agir ('constructifs') deputy and city councillor in the 18th arrdt. (running as a consensual, wishy-washy centrist/centre-right candidate), is polling 6-7% in all scenarios in which Dati is the candidate, and is also capturing a lot of votes from the right (and, to a lesser extent, macronismo). Interestingly, he drops to 4.5% in the matchup with Berthout, which suggests to me that Dati is pushing away more moderate/centre-right voters. According to the crosstabs, Dati is only holding a bit under half of Fillon 2017 voters, with 22% going LREM and 18% going for Bournazel.

Anyway, this is all a bit silly and meaningless so far out, especially given the decomposed dumpster fire that is the current French party system. It also doesn't take into account that Paris (and Lyon/Marseille) has a special electoral system in municipal election so it isn't actually a straight city-wide contest. The only sort of conclusion I'd draw from these numbers is that they presage a real hot mess.

Tbh I don't think the polls are that bad for LREM. Anne Hidalgo is a fairly popular incumbent (or at least more so than her party in general, at least that's the impression I get as a provincial), and like you said, a large chunk of LREM's support comes from the moderate left (and I'd argue that in 2017 LREM's voters were a coalition of moderate socialists and Juppé supporters: the right only started going to Macron after he became president) so it's no surprise they're backing Hidalgo. On the other hand I still suspect these voters will continue backing LREM in other elections (I think they'll vote LREM at the European Elections in May, for example).

Yeah, at anyrate I hope the LR nominate Berthout, I can't stand Dati and I think even most LR voters (those who are not Sarkozy loyalists) can't either. Berthout clearly can't be worse at anyrate.

Yeah that is true, but at anyrate with their current polling I think LR will lose a lot of arrondissements, I think the question is who picks them up between the PS and LREM.

[Lechasseur]

https://www.nouvelobs.com/politique/20190410.OBS11370/marion-marechal-le-positionnement-populiste-semble-etre-une-impasse-electorale.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR1Ui0FuyQEWhmmNfpSX8Tr2TF_KIv7UyozuxL9Yq9hl6RBQx_B1mmmFkA4#Echobox=1554911394

Marion's right, the RN won't win while they remain more "populist" than they are "conservative", the only way forward for both RN and LR is a union of the right, they can't win without the other; 2012 and 2017 both proved that.

[Lechasseur]

https://www.lepoint.fr/politique/jean-marie-le-pen-juge-jeudi-pour-detention-illegale-d-armes-10-04-2019-2307065_20.php?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&Echobox=1554931512&fbclid=IwAR3sGHw89aqu8_RBg3ocphkWUDvcSN5SQ0LDSZ1coBA-SDq2ok_ms-GsniY#xtor=CS1-31-%5BEchobox%5D

Jean-Marie Le Pen has been charged with illegal weapon possession.

[PSOL]

The only surprising thing here is that the weapon collection isn’t larger. I have a feeling that the Pen clan are preppers.

[Lechasseur]

https://www.nouvelobs.com/politique/20190411.OBS11403/anne-hidalgo-veut-experimenter-a-paris-le-vote-des-16-ans.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR31voCG-9Tx48rmE-sUWtfoZaH81lsPv4zcslebMA1hDKsfTAN4-ToMUw4#Echobox=1554969902

Anne Hidalgo, the Mayor of Paris, wants to experiment with having 16 and 17 year olds living in Paris vote in the European elections next month.

[Lechasseur]

Nicolas Sarkozy is the most popular politician in the country:

https://www.rtl.fr/actu/politique/nicolas-sarkozy-est-la-personnalite-politique-la-plus-appreciee-des-francais-7797483523?fbclid=IwAR00j14Jyp-dcpOI297ue7A-ppLukLctwgMNASwopaaa0Efni3Spw1I_Dh0

[Lechasseur]

Nicolas Sarkozy is the most popular politician in the country:

https://www.rtl.fr/actu/politique/nicolas-sarkozy-est-la-personnalite-politique-la-plus-appreciee-des-francais-7797483523?fbclid=IwAR00j14Jyp-dcpOI297ue7A-ppLukLctwgMNASwopaaa0Efni3Spw1I_Dh0

Is Sarko toying with another run?

He hasn't said anything recently, but I think Laurent Wauquiez will be removed as LR leader before the next election and Sarkozy will replace him and thus run for president again. The LR bench is really bad, Sarkozy would be the best candidate LR could run imo.

[Lord Halifax]

Nicolas Sarkozy is the most popular politician in the country:

How did that happen?

[Lechasseur]

Nicolas Sarkozy is the most popular politician in the country:

How did that happen?

Because our political class is like, really bad now?

[Lechasseur]

Nicolas Sarkozy is the most popular politician in the country:

How did that happen?

And I think especially on the right there's a lot of nostalgia for him, as the Sarkozy years were better than what followed and he's the only competent leader (who was actually right wing) the right has had since like 1995 or so.

[Zinneke]

Nicolas Sarkozy is the most popular politician in the country:

https://www.rtl.fr/actu/politique/nicolas-sarkozy-est-la-personnalite-politique-la-plus-appreciee-des-francais-7797483523?fbclid=IwAR00j14Jyp-dcpOI297ue7A-ppLukLctwgMNASwopaaa0Efni3Spw1I_Dh0

[Hash]

A somewhat misleading headline: the question asked by the pollster was not a traditional popularity question (favourable/unfavourable) but rather asked, for each name listed, if respondents supported him/her, felt sympathy, felt indifferent or reject him/her. Sarkozy topped the list with 30% expressing support or sympathy (and 36% expressing rejection). Granted, he is once again massively popular among right-wingers (82% support or sympathy). But a better interpretation of the result is that most politicians are unpopular (or, at the very least, do not elicit mass support or sympathy) - 30% isn't that impressive.

In more traditional popularity polls, Sarkozy does rank pretty high (top 5 or 10), but with a majority of respondents still having an unfavourable opinion of him - 61 v. 33 in Ipsos, 54 v. 46 in Ifop and 57 v. 32 in Elabe. In every single poll, it is because he is extremely popular on the right (80%+). He is more popular, by these measures, than active political leaders, but that's easier when you're out of the limelight (in the role of a former statesman occasionally opining on political events), not a party leader and not in power.

[Lechasseur]

https://www.la-couronne.org/actualite-royale/comte-de-paris-au-coeur-de-la-reconciliation-entre-la-france-et-litalie/?fbclid=IwAR2pc6qrK2PptX69fUfN2mk8oOQY9yt2qDZj7W3n7NSZDrCwYknnsgU_HYk

The Count of Paris welcomes Emmanuel Macron at the Château d'Amboise haha

[Lechasseur]

https://www.lejdd.fr/Politique/si-emmanuel-macron-pense-a-gauche-pourquoi-levoit-on-adroite-3896416?Echobox=1556872848&fbclid=IwAR2Qv9MzJB9xVBBvLdcstGk2jy7eyYIjllZFnfiuZYZjdyQxu6DXXDRWBaY#utm_medium=Social&xtor=CS1-3&utm_source=Facebook

"If Macrons considers himself to be progressive, why is he seen as rightwing?"

[Lechasseur]

https://www.nouvelobs.com/societe/20190503.OBS12448/les-francais-seront-consultes-sur-la-reconstruction-de-notre-dame-de-paris.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR1rvzUc9-0xyukeFnuwIlLC25BON3nrJIozK1UcjNozyeO101Xs2xv_XLY#Echobox=1556899022

"The French (people) will be consulted on the reconstruction of Notre Dame"

[CumbrianLefty]

https://www.lejdd.fr/Politique/si-emmanuel-macron-pense-a-gauche-pourquoi-levoit-on-adroite-3896416?Echobox=1556872848&fbclid=IwAR2Qv9MzJB9xVBBvLdcstGk2jy7eyYIjllZFnfiuZYZjdyQxu6DXXDRWBaY#utm_medium=Social&xtor=CS1-3&utm_source=Facebook

"If Macrons considers himself to be progressive, why is he seen as rightwing?"

Because for the most part, he is?

[Lechasseur]

https://www.lejdd.fr/Politique/si-emmanuel-macron-pense-a-gauche-pourquoi-levoit-on-adroite-3896416?Echobox=1556872848&fbclid=IwAR2Qv9MzJB9xVBBvLdcstGk2jy7eyYIjllZFnfiuZYZjdyQxu6DXXDRWBaY#utm_medium=Social&xtor=CS1-3&utm_source=Facebook

"If Macrons considers himself to be progressive, why is he seen as rightwing?"

Because for the most part, he is?

Tbh he's one of those "fiscally conservative and socially liberal" types, just like his predecessor and mentor Hollande. They're basically the same thing imo. Macron is just the continuation of the Hollande presidency but even worse.