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  Can Iowa D's win the iowa state house in 2020?
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Author Topic: Can Iowa D's win the iowa state house in 2020?  (Read 1299 times)
Lfromnj stands with Sanchez.
lfromnj
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« on: March 24, 2019, 04:39:46 pm »
« edited: March 24, 2019, 05:28:06 pm by All States will be D »

What are the most important districts they would need to pick up?

I vaguely remember that Fink's Republican challengers is in a Clinton district so thats one seat but they need 4 more for a majority.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #1 on: March 24, 2019, 05:25:57 pm »

I was actually mildly surprised that they didnít win it in 2018 (Reynolds winning surprised me too).
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #2 on: March 24, 2019, 08:02:17 pm »

If Trump doesn't carry the state, or if Joni Ernst loses, then it's possible.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #3 on: March 25, 2019, 12:56:55 pm »

If Trump doesn't carry the state, or if Joni Ernst loses, then it's possible.

Yes, Dems will win state legislature due to IA-3 and IA-1 still being Dem
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #4 on: March 25, 2019, 12:57:41 pm »

What about the IA State Senate ?
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Lfromnj stands with Sanchez.
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« Reply #5 on: March 25, 2019, 06:10:06 pm »

What about the IA State Senate ?


Picking up 8 seats seems almost impossible so thats a no.
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KoopaDaQuick
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« Reply #6 on: March 26, 2019, 09:30:57 am »

I don't know. Perhaps I should ask this question to the 3 other people who live in this state, and we can form a general consensus.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: March 26, 2019, 10:14:32 am »

What about the IA State Senate ?


Picking up 8 seats seems almost impossible so thats a no.

There are a bunch of Senate Seats in the Des Moines area that have Democratic members in the house, but Republican senators. Probably not enough to take the majority, but maybe enough to cut it in half.
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #8 on: March 26, 2019, 06:23:08 pm »

What about the IA State Senate ?


Picking up 8 seats seems almost impossible so thats a no.

There are a bunch of Senate Seats in the Des Moines area that have Democratic members in the house, but Republican senators. Probably not enough to take the majority, but maybe enough to cut it in half.

Senate seats are staggered by four years. IIRC, I think two of those Des Moines area senate seats had elections last year and Democrats failed to win them while another is up in 2020.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #9 on: March 26, 2019, 06:59:39 pm »

Hahhahah


No.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #10 on: March 26, 2019, 07:02:12 pm »

Not in a presidential year and with Ernst's Ride 'n' Roast Retail Politiking, no.
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« Reply #11 on: March 26, 2019, 07:31:29 pm »

Not in a presidential year and with Ernst's Ride 'n' Roast Retail Politiking, no.
Is IA turning into your next NH?
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Lfromnj stands with Sanchez.
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« Reply #12 on: March 26, 2019, 08:47:50 pm »
« Edited: March 26, 2019, 08:52:09 pm by All States will be D »

can anyone help me count the districts. 67th is a possible flip and its actually a romney clinton district.

So is 43 which is clinton +8
. I cant find any other but does anyone else find some?
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Gustaf
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« Reply #13 on: March 27, 2019, 05:05:22 am »

Seats where Republicans won reelection in 2018 by less than 10% margin:

9th
16th
37th
47th
55th
67th
82nd
91st
92nd
94th
95th
97th

So that's an even dozen. The 67th district mentioned here Went 52-48. The mentioned 43rd district is already D though.

It certainly looks possible if they have a good year.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #14 on: March 28, 2019, 12:46:25 am »

Seats where Republicans won reelection in 2018 by less than 10% margin:

9th
16th
37th
47th
55th
67th
82nd
91st
92nd
94th
95th
97th

So that's an even dozen. The 67th district mentioned here Went 52-48. The mentioned 43rd district is already D though.

It certainly looks possible if they have a good year.
I see no reason to expect 2020 to be more liberal than 2018
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Gustaf
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« Reply #15 on: March 29, 2019, 04:28:41 am »

Seats where Republicans won reelection in 2018 by less than 10% margin:

9th
16th
37th
47th
55th
67th
82nd
91st
92nd
94th
95th
97th

So that's an even dozen. The 67th district mentioned here Went 52-48. The mentioned 43rd district is already D though.

It certainly looks possible if they have a good year.
I see no reason to expect 2020 to be more liberal than 2018

I'm not sure it has to be "more liberal" for a few seats to fall in the Iowa State House. I'm also not sure it couldn't be. It could also go the other way, of course.
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Lfromnj stands with Sanchez.
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« Reply #16 on: April 23, 2019, 02:10:08 pm »

Bump.
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
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« Reply #17 on: April 23, 2019, 02:13:11 pm »

If they couldn't take it in the most D-leaning wave in years, why would they get it in 2020?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #18 on: April 23, 2019, 02:17:44 pm »

Only need to flip 4.
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
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« Reply #19 on: April 23, 2019, 02:29:46 pm »

Only need to flip 4.
If they couldn't flip the 4 in 2018 (the most Democratic year in a decade), why would they do it in a presidential race where Trump is maintaining the same approval that got him through 2016?
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Socialists are Pro-Choice Fascists
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« Reply #20 on: April 23, 2019, 04:21:52 pm »

Only need to flip 4.
If they couldn't flip the 4 in 2018 (the most Democratic year in a decade), why would they do it in a presidential race where Trump is maintaining the same approval that got him through 2016?
Because he had a better approval in November 2018 (the most Democratic year in a decade) than he does now or will then.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #21 on: April 23, 2019, 05:57:14 pm »
« Edited: April 23, 2019, 08:01:12 pm by Nyvin »

The Iowa dems should focus on the more urban areas mostly, since that's where the party as a whole is going.

67 should be a gimme,  that's a suburban seat right outside of Cedar Rapids, I don't know how the Dems haven't taken it yet.

37 is near Ankeny and is almost exactly the kind of district moving toward the democrats.  30 is right to the east still in Polk county, that's viable too.


There's also 91, 92, and 94 outside of Davenport,  all pretty suburban too.

55 is rural, but it was close in 2018 and Clinton only lost it by about 7%....*shrug* why not.

16 is right outside Omaha, was close in 2018.

That's 8 GOP held districts that I see as viable and the Iowa dems only need 4.   That's certainly doable.

To the posters saying "2018 dem wave year!" Ummm..how the heck do you know how 2020 is going to be like?  That's not much of an argument.
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