The Hill/HarrisX: 54% of Americans open to voting for Trump

[RI]

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/435659-a-small-majority-of-americans-say-theyre-open-to-the-idea-of-re

Fifty-four percent in the Hill-HarrisX survey released Monday said they would think about voting for Trump, though 46 percent of registered voters said they would not even consider casting a ballot for the president.

Ninety-five percent of respondents who said they had picked Trump in his first run for office said they could find a reason vote for him again in 2020.

Seventy-six percent of former Clinton voters said they would "never" vote for Trump but 24 percent said they would at least consider it.

I guess you could argue that's his ceiling.

[Thatkat04]

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/435659-a-small-majority-of-americans-say-theyre-open-to-the-idea-of-re

Fifty-four percent in the Hill-HarrisX survey released Monday said they would think about voting for Trump, though 46 percent of registered voters said they would not even consider casting a ballot for the president.

Ninety-five percent of respondents who said they had picked Trump in his first run for office said they could find a reason vote for him again in 2020.

Seventy-six percent of former Clinton voters said they would "never" vote for Trump but 24 percent said they would at least consider it.

I guess you could argue that's his ceiling.

That alone should tell you this poll should be taken with a grain of salt.

edit: Anything done by Harrisx should be taken with a grain of salt. I'm shocked RCP has started to include them in the aggregate.

[Progressive Pessimist]

And that's what I have always been afraid of. It's f***ing embarrassing that he can have access to that many voters, potentially.

[forgotten manatee]

And that's what I have always been afraid of. It's f***ing embarrassing that he can have access to that many voters, potentially.

People in this country are so god damn stupid!

[Reaganfan]

And that's what I have always been afraid of. It's f***ing embarrassing that he can have access to that many voters, potentially.

People in this country are so god damn stupid!

Calling people stupid is a sure-fire way not to get their votes.

[IceSpear]

And that's what I have always been afraid of. It's f***ing embarrassing that he can have access to that many voters, potentially.

People in this country are so god damn stupid!

Calling people stupid is a sure-fire way not to get their votes.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2015/11/13/how-stupid-are-people-iowa-trump-asks-while-blasting-carson/o3RJKigUQyqzjU9U8skVuO/story.html

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=19&year=2016&f=0&off=0&elect=0

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is the type of question that about ~10% of the population will be insufferable Moderate Heroes and always answer yes to.

[S019]

46% also say that they will not even consider voting for Trump

Not a good poll for Trump, on the surface


Dem floor: 46%
GOP ceiling:54%

Even if just 10% of total voters are Tossup voters

That leaves this:

Dem floor: 46%
GOP floor: 44%

Dem ceiling: 56%
GOP ceiling: 54%

Average
Dem: 51
GOP: 49
Weighting the numbers this way, shows Trump would improve by 0.1%, but probably not uniform swing, so he could theoretically lose MI and PA and win NH, with those numbers, or he could win all three of lose all three and lose WI, it's a tossup

[Xing]

This is about as useful as polls in which (insert number above 50%) say it's "time for someone new." Not saying that Trump can't win, he can, but he's not getting 54% under any fair circumstances.

[S019]

This is about as useful as polls in which (insert number above 50%) say it's "time for someone new." Not saying that Trump can't win, he can, but he's not getting 54% under any fair circumstances.

It tells us floors and ceilings, and this poll does much to dispel the landslide myth

[Sestak]

HarrisX is not great, but his ceiling is probably somewhere around here.

[pbrower2a]

The obvious, highest ceiling is "How well can he do if everything goes right?" So let's say that President Trump can convince Kim Jong-un to give up his WMD program and hold a free and competitive election, beginning with allowing non-Communist Parties to organize; the American economy booms to the extent that the poor start seeing improvements in their lives; America has a right-leaning religious revival analogous to the rise of the Religious Right about as Reagan faced Carter... 54%? Heck, Reagan got 58% in 1984, and no incumbent has even gotten close to that since then. This would be against an incredibly-flawed Democratic nominee. Democrats are not going to nominate someone like Walter Mondale, basically for 'long and loyal service to the Party' when nobody else really wants the nomination.

This is the "100% less 46%" model, 46% of Americans saying that they will not vote to reelect Trump under any circumstances.

That says little.  It is practically impossible to see any binary split of the vote going more than 54-46 either way under any but the most unusual circumstances -- major scandals, military defeat, a diplomatic debacle, or a full-blown depression (for the latter there is no longer enough time for a recession to become recognized as a full-blown depression; consider the worst meltdown since the Great Depression, a downturn that began in 2007 and that was over in 2009 -- Obama got only 53% of the popular vote).

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Coincidentally, or not so coincidentally, the 2018 CNN exit polls has the "Strongly Disapprove" numbers for Trump at 46%. When you combined "Strongly Approve," "Slightly Approve," and "Slightly Disapprove" it added up to 54%.

[538Electoral]

A poll with a C+ rating according to FiveThirtyEight showing 54% of voters could vote for Trump isn't too bad for Trump.

Again, This shows the Mueller probe collapsing might have an impact in 2020.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

A poll with a C+ rating according to FiveThirtyEight showing 54% of voters could vote for Trump isn't too bad for Trump.

Again, This shows the Mueller probe collapsing might have an impact in 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A poll with a C+ rating according to FiveThirtyEight showing 54% of voters could vote for Trump isn't too bad for Trump.

Again, This shows the Mueller probe collapsing might have an impact in 2020.

The economy is a factor, not just Mueller probe collapsing

[538Electoral]

A poll with a C+ rating according to FiveThirtyEight showing 54% of voters could vote for Trump isn't too bad for Trump.

Again, This shows the Mueller probe collapsing might have an impact in 2020.

The economy is a factor, not just Mueller probe collapsing

The economy is doing good right now as well.

[DrScholl]

A poll with a C+ rating according to FiveThirtyEight showing 54% of voters could vote for Trump isn't too bad for Trump.

Again, This shows the Mueller probe collapsing might have an impact in 2020.

How did it collapse when Trump is hiding the report? That report not being released gives the idea that he's hiding something and a lot voters will see that. Besides, any fake bounce he might have gotten is gone because he's trying to overturn healthcare again.

[Comrade Funk]

Lol. If this is what you want to cling on to, go ahead

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A poll with a C+ rating according to FiveThirtyEight showing 54% of voters could vote for Trump isn't too bad for Trump.

Again, This shows the Mueller probe collapsing might have an impact in 2020.

The economy is a factor, not just Mueller probe collapsing

The economy is doing good right now as well.

Yeah, but the natl debt, poverty due to wage stagnation is up. More people are homeless.  The samething is happening under May's govt. Economy good, but poverty up and homeslessness due to high rent, income inequality and wage stagnation

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

just wait until the dems keep infighting, drawing more true americans to the light

[Hollywood]

A poll with a C+ rating according to FiveThirtyEight showing 54% of voters could vote for Trump isn't too bad for Trump.

Again, This shows the Mueller probe collapsing might have an impact in 2020.

How did it collapse when Trump is hiding the report? That report not being released gives the idea that he's hiding something and a lot voters will see that. Besides, any fake bounce he might have gotten is gone because he's trying to overturn healthcare again.

There’s a simple problem with your assertion that he’s hiding the report. He’s been saying that he will release the report, and it will likely come out this week.  So everyone that was told by the Democrats that he’s hiding the report is going to assume the Democrats were being dishonest with their narrative.  Dems are trying to attack this man’s credibility to the point where they sacrifice their own.  As a result, your unwittingly reducing your own voter ceiling. 

[here2view]

Lol. If this is what you want to cling on to, go ahead

[DrScholl]

A poll with a C+ rating according to FiveThirtyEight showing 54% of voters could vote for Trump isn't too bad for Trump.

Again, This shows the Mueller probe collapsing might have an impact in 2020.

How did it collapse when Trump is hiding the report? That report not being released gives the idea that he's hiding something and a lot voters will see that. Besides, any fake bounce he might have gotten is gone because he's trying to overturn healthcare again.

There’s a simple problem with your assertion that he’s hiding the report. He’s been saying that he will release the report, and it will likely come out this week.  So everyone that was told by the Democrats that he’s hiding the report is going to assume the Democrats were being dishonest with their narrative.  Dems are trying to attack this man’s credibility to the point where they sacrifice their own.  As a result, your unwittingly reducing your own voter ceiling. 

"No report" has been released yet, so it is being hidden. If a document truly exonerated him he would have released it by now and there really is not guarantee that it will be released next week or ever. The longer the release is put off the more likely it is that the report is being edited of anything negative about him. He demonstrates every day that he has no credibility without Democrats ever questioning it. He is the one who has lowered his voter ceiling by flipping out or lying all the time.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

46% also say that they will not even consider voting for Trump

Not a good poll for Trump, on the surface


Dem floor: 46%
GOP ceiling:54%

Even if just 10% of total voters are Tossup voters

That leaves this:

Dem floor: 46%
GOP floor: 44%

Dem ceiling: 56%
GOP ceiling: 54%

Average
Dem: 51
GOP: 49
Weighting the numbers this way, shows Trump would improve by 0.1%, but probably not uniform swing, so he could theoretically lose MI and PA and win NH, with those numbers, or he could win all three of lose all three and lose WI, it's a tossup

What makes you assume the dem floor is 46? This poll didn’t ask how many people will definitely vote democrat. It just asked how many were for/against Trump.

The floor for any major party nominee (who isn't a pedophile or murderer or something extreme like that) is around 45% in the two-party vote.