IL06/IL14

[jamestroll]

https://www.rollcall.com/news/campaigns/challengers-circle-democrats-work-hold-key-chicago-suburbs

I will obviously provide my own analysis later but my quick feeling is that Underwood is bit more popular than Casten even though Casten's district is far more likely to switch to voting Democratic downballot.

Former Lt. Gov. Evelyn Sanguinetti announcing she may for IL-06 should not be treated as a laughing matter. Her ticket did carry that district while losing by 15 statewide. But IL-06 probably goes for the Democratic nominee for President by 7 to 10 points.

Oberweis obviously landslided in IL-14 against Durbin in 2014 but those were different times and retreads have not exactly been doing well lately. He is basically an office shopper.

Hillary Clinton carried Casten’s seat by 7 points in 2016, while Underwood’s district, which includes more rural parts, backed Trump by 4 points. Those results have some strategists thinking the latter could be an easier target for the GOP this time around. But insiders in both parties also pointed to Underwood as the more formidable opponent, citing her reputation as a disciplined campaigner.

Sums my thoughts exactly. Underwood may outperform Casten lol.

[S019]

Umm, no

Candidate quality is overrated and political leanings of districts is underrated

[HarrisonL]

I still think Casten will overperform Underwood, I think Underwood may lose.

[Frenchrepublican]

Casten should be OK in 2020, as for Underwood she will have a difficult race next year but if she survives in 2020 her district will be redrawn significantly in 2022 in order to be more democrat and should be relatively safe for the next decade

[Boobs]

Underwood ran a good campaign last year and won even as Rauner was winning IL-14. I don’t think Trump is going to do better than Rauner in the district, and Oberweis is a joke. IL-14 is Lean D imo, probably close to likely.

Casten is Safe.

[lfromnj]

IL 14th is just around tilt or Lean D. Its not zooming left or anything.

Il 6th is Safe D.

[Nyvin]

IL-6's dem trend is most likely too powerful for the GOP to overcome in 2020.   Safe D.

IL-14 will probably be on the edge of being a bonafide swing district in 2020, and Underwood is quite popular.   I'd say lean D.

[jamestroll]

Umm, no

Candidate quality is overrated and political leanings of districts is underrated

Did you not notice I said the word "may".

[jamestroll]

https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-met-ted-gradel-congress-lauren-underwood-20190423-story.html

The ranks of Republicans lining up to challenge first-term Democratic U.S. Rep. Lauren Underwood next year grew Tuesday with the entry of Ted Gradel of Naperville.
Gradel’s announcement video was narrated by former University of Notre Dame football coach Lou Holtz. It includes scenes of Gradel from his time as a walk-on field goal kicker who, in his final year at Notre Dame in 1987, was the team’s leading scorer and an NCAA first team Academic All-American.

I would bet on Lauren Underwood winning re-election and hope for better boundaries after the next census. However, my main worry for Underwood is counter intuitive. The fact that many GOP candidates are throwing their hat into the ring will only bring them attention and make the GOP base energized. Whoever emerges will be seen as a proven winner.


Still holding out that Underwood will win due to these factors:

1) It seems local issues still factor in elections in the upper Midwest and she is personally popular.


2) Trump and whoever the Democrat is will likely be exactly tied in the 14th district.

This district is still down ballot very Republican though. Pritzker lost it by eight and Raoul lost it by 7. Only Underwood for Congressional, White for Secretary of State (ofc) and Mendoza for Comptroller won it and the last one was by 1.6%. Still am improve from 2016 and before numbers.

But if there is any part of the country that will have a large divergence between down and up ballot voting this is it.

Tilt Underwood and Likely Casten.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wtf

https://www.rawstory.com/2019/05/gop-spokesperson-repeatedly-calls-nurse-turned-democrat-lawmaker-a-fake-nurse-and-gets-buried-on-twitter/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump will underperform in IL, thus, giving this race to the Democrats.

[jamestroll]

https://www.kendallcountynow.com/2019/06/17/democratic-republican-officials-react-to-nazi-salute-incident-at-prairiefest-parade/apl2e3y/

The GOP is doing everything they can to lose this race.

Wouldn't it be funny Lauren Underwood outperformed Sean Casten in 2020 despite the fact that Trump will probably [barely] win IL-14?

[Gracile]

https://www.kendallcountynow.com/2019/06/17/democratic-republican-officials-react-to-nazi-salute-incident-at-prairiefest-parade/apl2e3y/

The GOP is doing everything they can to lose this race.

Wouldn't it be funny Lauren Underwood outperformed Sean Casten in 2020 despite the fact that Trump will probably [barely] win IL-14?

You keep saying this, yet there is nothing to indicate that will be the case. IL-06 is far more Democratic on the whole than IL-14. The GOP will also surely pour a lot of money into IL-14 (unlike last year) which could bring Underwood's margin down.

[HarrisonL]

https://www.rollcall.com/news/campaigns/challengers-circle-democrats-work-hold-key-chicago-suburbs

I will obviously provide my own analysis later but my quick feeling is that Underwood is bit more popular than Casten even though Casten's district is far more likely to switch to voting Democratic downballot.

Former Lt. Gov. Evelyn Sanguinetti announcing she may for IL-06 should not be treated as a laughing matter. Her ticket did carry that district while losing by 15 statewide. But IL-06 probably goes for the Democratic nominee for President by 7 to 10 points.

Oberweis obviously landslided in IL-14 against Durbin in 2014 but those were different times and retreads have not exactly been doing well lately. He is basically an office shopper.

Hillary Clinton carried Casten’s seat by 7 points in 2016, while Underwood’s district, which includes more rural parts, backed Trump by 4 points. Those results have some strategists thinking the latter could be an easier target for the GOP this time around. But insiders in both parties also pointed to Underwood as the more formidable opponent, citing her reputation as a disciplined campaigner.

Sums my thoughts exactly. Underwood may outperform Casten lol.

Jim Hagedorn was a three time retread that finally won.

[jamestroll]

https://www.rollcall.com/news/campaigns/challengers-circle-democrats-work-hold-key-chicago-suburbs

I will obviously provide my own analysis later but my quick feeling is that Underwood is bit more popular than Casten even though Casten's district is far more likely to switch to voting Democratic downballot.

Former Lt. Gov. Evelyn Sanguinetti announcing she may for IL-06 should not be treated as a laughing matter. Her ticket did carry that district while losing by 15 statewide. But IL-06 probably goes for the Democratic nominee for President by 7 to 10 points.

Oberweis obviously landslided in IL-14 against Durbin in 2014 but those were different times and retreads have not exactly been doing well lately. He is basically an office shopper.

Hillary Clinton carried Casten’s seat by 7 points in 2016, while Underwood’s district, which includes more rural parts, backed Trump by 4 points. Those results have some strategists thinking the latter could be an easier target for the GOP this time around. But insiders in both parties also pointed to Underwood as the more formidable opponent, citing her reputation as a disciplined campaigner.

Sums my thoughts exactly. Underwood may outperform Casten lol.

Jim Hagedorn was a three time retread that finally won.

Where did I say that retreads never finally win? If everything was absolute in politics every single result from presidential to partisan local seats would have had the exact same results the past few years.