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November 13, 2019, 08:48:44 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions close today at noon

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, x)
  Dems & the South
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Poll
Question: Do you believe the Dems will ever win in the South anytime soon ?
#1YES: demographic changes in several Southern states  
#2NO  
#3Too Soon to Tell  
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 64

Author Topic: Dems & the South  (Read 1994 times)
LoneStarDem
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« on: March 27, 2019, 03:55:27 pm »

What's your take on the outlook for the Dems winning again in the South ?
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Frenchy
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« Reply #1 on: March 27, 2019, 04:10:03 pm »

North Carolina, Florida, VA, and Texas: Yes
The rest: Not for a long time
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Ses
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« Reply #2 on: March 27, 2019, 04:16:26 pm »

North Carolina, Florida, VA, and Texas: Yes
The rest: Not for a long time

Georgia?!?!?!
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Ishan
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« Reply #3 on: March 27, 2019, 04:17:10 pm »

They won Virginia in 2016.
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Arch
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« Reply #4 on: March 27, 2019, 04:46:05 pm »

North Carolina, Florida, VA, and Texas: Yes
The rest: Not for a long time

Georgia?!?!?!
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #5 on: March 27, 2019, 04:48:22 pm »

The near future prospects for Democrats are quite good in places like Virginia, Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina. Republicans will not get the opportunity to enjoy their own prolonged Solid South period.

The most noteworthy development, however, is that when the Democrats start flipping these states, it will be the first time since Reconstruction that conservative whites arenít part of the ruling coalition.
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Georgia Is A Swing State
RFKFan68
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« Reply #6 on: March 27, 2019, 08:33:15 pm »

By 2028: Virginia will be Safe D, Georgia will be Lean D, Texas will be Tilt D, Florida and North Carolina will be toss-ups.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #7 on: March 27, 2019, 10:38:41 pm »

By 2028: Virginia will be Safe D, Georgia will be Lean D, Texas will be Tilt D, Florida and North Carolina will be toss-ups.

This, but Florida might actually move right for a while as the youngest retirees are notably more conservative than the oldest ones.

It's not about the South.  It's about large cities starting to vote the same way regardless of where they are located. 

So much this.

 What we are seeing in our political system arent random shifts, but rather a standardization of our politics. Back in the 1960s-2000s, you had Urban, Suburban, Exurban, and Rural areas that all voted in their own way. From Solid D Boston, to the Swing area of Los Angeles, to the R strongholds of Ft. Worth, such differences were the norm. But now, if its an urban area, it will shift D, and it will vote D by large margins. If its an exurban area, it will vote R, and it will vote R by large margins.

The difference isnt really that the South is trending Dem, moreso that the Urban areas and their outer suburbs are getting in line with the rest of the Nation. Of course, there will always be areas that break such standardization, but it appears that areas like GA, TX, NC, etc. will flip not due to rising education levels, or income changes, but moreso because of the fact that the Urban Areas will finally vote like Urban areas, along with their suburban partners, just as the North had been doing for the past 20 years(except you Milwaukee and WOW).
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #8 on: March 28, 2019, 03:05:39 am »

The realignment was gonna take place: due to Va becoming a Dem stronghold, but Dems should try to make IA, OH and AZ Dem strongholds again. Where Dem majority lies: VA, IA, Az as well as upprr midwest.

Tim Ryan, Conor Lamb, Mark Kelly and Dem Senator in WI, by 2022, will make that happen
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JGibson
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« Reply #9 on: March 28, 2019, 05:46:05 pm »

FL, GA, NC, TX, and VA.

The rest: Not happening, unless in a blue moon scenario (Moore v. Jones).
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #10 on: March 28, 2019, 05:47:32 pm »

FL, GA, NC, TX, and VA.

The rest: Not happening, unless in a blue moon scenario (Moore v. Jones).

You're saying LA & maybe AR is a lost cause for Dems ? What's this I'm hearing about AR having a lack of African Americans in the state ?
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #11 on: March 29, 2019, 03:07:15 am »

FL, GA, NC, TX, and VA.

The rest: Not happening, unless in a blue moon scenario (Moore v. Jones).

You're saying LA & maybe AR is a lost cause for Dems ? What's this I'm hearing about AR having a lack of African Americans in the state ?

IMHO - for the near fututre both LA and AR are almost lost cause for Democrats. LA - because of sharrp shift to the right in Acadiana and vicinity since about 2007-08 (as a result - many termed-out Democratic legislators there will, most likely, be replaced by Republicans this fall), and relatively slow movement of suburban NO and Baton Rouge areas to Democrats (AFAIK - Livingston parish is still "Republican and white heaven"). In Arkansas - there are relatively few Blacks, no big cities (even Little Rock is not so big), and thus - not very big suburbs. Add to this the fact, that Arkansas whites began to vote in a way similar (less so, but - still...) to whites in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama - and chances of victory become really slim....
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #12 on: March 29, 2019, 04:30:15 am »

As far as the overall vote in the south? Difficult, because they would have to get good enough margins in VA, NC, GA, FL, and TX to offset everything else, but as a region, it's slowly trending Democratic. That's not to say it will continue to do so.
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TML
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« Reply #13 on: March 29, 2019, 10:44:39 am »

Here's what I think right now (I'm using the Census Bureau's definition of the South):

Virtual lock: Delaware, DC, Maryland
Not a lock, but pretty much safe: Virginia
Competitive: Florida, Georgia, North Carolina
Possibly competitive within the next generation: Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, Texas
Unlikely to be competitive within the next generation: Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Tennessee, West Virginia

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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #14 on: March 29, 2019, 01:58:10 pm »

Are we talking about Senate and/or presidential races here? If so..

Lock, no matter what: Delaware, DC, Maryland, Virginia
Competitive: North Carolina, Georgia
Competitive, but Republicans currently have a slight edge: Florida, Texas
Probably competitive within the next generation: Mississippi, South Carolina
Unlikely to be competitive within the next generation: Alabama, Kentucky, Louisiana, West Virginia, Oklahoma
LOL: Arkansas, Tennessee
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Jbrase
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« Reply #15 on: March 29, 2019, 03:38:39 pm »

Do you mean the combined popular vote of all southern states? And how is the South defined?
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #16 on: March 29, 2019, 03:48:45 pm »

I believe OK is part of the Midwest.
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R.P. McM
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« Reply #17 on: March 29, 2019, 11:00:27 pm »

The most noteworthy development, however, is that when the Democrats start flipping these states, it will be the first time since Reconstruction that conservative whites arenít part of the ruling coalition.

I'm sure they'll adjust to the impending democratic order with prudence and moderation /s. Get ready for a cavalcade of Nathan Bedford Forrests and Dylann Roofs!!!

I believe OK is part of the Midwest.

"Interesting," in the MN parlance.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #18 on: March 30, 2019, 12:30:34 pm »

Dems dont need to win South, House majority encompassing: IA,AZ and 279 freiwal. 2022 Senate proves it as Dems attempt to win OH, IA, WI, PA and sure up AZ
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Skunk
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« Reply #19 on: March 30, 2019, 12:40:44 pm »

I believe OK is part of the Midwest.
Leave it to a Texan to say some stupid s**t.
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NoobMaster69
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« Reply #20 on: March 30, 2019, 07:22:49 pm »

I also see Mississippi being competitive in 15 years or so.
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Grand Mufti of Northern Virginia
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« Reply #21 on: March 31, 2019, 10:04:46 am »

The near future prospects for Democrats are quite good in places like Virginia, Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina. Republicans will not get the opportunity to enjoy their own prolonged Solid South period.

The most noteworthy development, however, is that when the Democrats start flipping these states, it will be the first time since Reconstruction that conservative whites arenít part of the ruling coalition.

We don't even need a Southern or Sunbelt Strategy of our own.  
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #22 on: April 02, 2019, 08:17:37 pm »

Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas will all be tossups at worst. Virginia will be safe D, if it isn't already. Every other southern state will remain safe R.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #23 on: April 03, 2019, 05:08:03 pm »

Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas will all be tossups at worst. Virginia will be safe D, if it isn't already. Every other southern state will remain safe R.

In other words: In 10-20 years, the Dems will eventually get control of VA (trending safe Blue), NC, GA, FL (possible, but it'll take 20 years) & TX.

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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
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« Reply #24 on: April 04, 2019, 09:20:15 pm »

I think Democrats are too bullish about North Carolina.  NC had one abrupt shift left in 2008, but has held that PVI ever since.  Additionally, 2016 exit polls showed that people who are now moving to NC are quite Republican (as opposed to a prior wave of more Democratic transplants).  I think NC is starting to have a similar effect of retirees as Florida is.
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