WA-Chism Strategies: Bill Bryant (R), Bob Ferguson (D) lead jungle primary

[ON Progressive]

Bill Bryant (R) 46.3%
Bob Ferguson (D) 24.6%
Dow Constantine (D) 6.2%
Hilary Franz (D) 1.8%
Unsure 21.1%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yyY5DPHDq6WNXB5iA2cvUEoXYPSS1tvv/view

[S019]

Interesting, but I think Bryant with these numbers will do as well as Dino Rossi in 2010.

Likely D for now, but if Bryant is doing this well, I just have to wonder how Dave Reichert, Kim Wyman, or Duane Davidson are doing, anyway I think of these Reichert could probably get 48%, it’s going to be hard to get over 50% and this is Washington, but to have above 46% before the primary starts for a retread candidate and not even the GOP’s best candidate in the state is not horrible

[Yellowhammer]

Safe D.

[_]

If the GOP wants to run anyone who can win, they should put up Wyman

[ON Progressive]

I really like how this poll has a 90% white electorate in a 77% white state.

[Crumpets]

Surprised Constantine is as low as he is, but Ferguson has done everything right to succeed Inslee.

[Xing]

If McKenna couldn't pull off an open race, I'm not sure which Republican could against Ferguson. While gubernatorial races are often a lot closer here, I think it would take a perfect storm for Republicans to even get a 2012 type of result. There are definitely a decent number of people here who voted for McKenna who would not give another Republican the time of day in the current climate. Assuming Ferguson runs (I think he will), he should have nothing to worry about.

[Ye We Can]

Likely D.

[UncleSam]

I really like how this poll has a 90% white electorate in a 77% white state.

Most of the minorities in Washington are low-propensity voters, but yes this poll is heavily Republican skewed.

[KaiserDave]

Yawn.

Safe D unless a God Tier Phil Scott/Charlie Baker candidate emerges.

[LoneStarDem]

What happens if & when Inslee drops out of the POTUS 2020 campaign ?

You know he'll probably seek 3rd term.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt D DEL, KY, MS and NC
Tossup Wa and La
Tilt R NH, VT, MT, ND, WVa, MO and UT

As of now Gov races

[LoneStarDem]

Tilt D DEL, KY, MS and NC
Tossup Wa and La
Tilt R NH, VT, MT, ND, WVa, MO and UT

As of now Gov races

WA St: Inslee could still jump in here & I do NOT see his Presidential campaign going anywhere once his $$$ dries up.

NC: Cooper is popular & he's NEVER lost an election at all since he got into politics in 1986.

VT: Scott can be Governor as long as he wants it.

NH: Safe GOP if Sununu runs for 3rd term. However, don't rule out the possibility of POTUS Trump pushing him to run for the United States Senate.

UT (Open): Safe GOP regardless who the nominee is.

DE: Carney is super SAFE Dem.

MO: Parson isn't going anywhere. I wonder if he's allowed to seek a 2nd full 4-year term in 2024 ?

MT: Safe GOP Pick-Up because the MT Dems just don't have anybody on their bench to carry on the legacies of Schweitzer & Bullock, plus the MT Dems have controlled the MT Governor's Residence since 2005.

[ElectionsGuy]

Likely D.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely D.

States can go differently than should go, especially, like OR, WA is an independent Democratic state.

[MT Treasurer]

Imagine unironically believing that this race is more competitive than MT-GOV, lol. Safe D as always.

[Sestak]

Yeah this ain't flipping in this day and age.

[LoneStarDem]

Something tells me Inslee will drop out soon & run for reelection as WA St Governor in 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Inslee doesn't have to run, any Generic democrat can win. Hopefully, Dems can get a candidate in MT, win KY and upset Sununu in NH. In NH, gap closes dramatically, when election nears.

[LoneStarDem]

I like to see Inslee seek a 3rd term as WA St Governor because he still has a job to go back to since his White House campaign is going downhill.

[sg0508]

The state GOP has actually put out some decent candidates every since Gary Locke was governor and still couldn't win (unless you count the stolen race from Rossi in '04).   

It may take some celebrity-like candidate to push the GOP across back into the mansion.  Otherwise, it will yet again be King County and the surrounding burbs overwhelming the more rural areas of the state.