Emerson - Nevada (Everyone, but Biden, trails Trump)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 05:17:55 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  Emerson - Nevada (Everyone, but Biden, trails Trump)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3
Author Topic: Emerson - Nevada (Everyone, but Biden, trails Trump)  (Read 3711 times)
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: March 31, 2019, 06:41:17 PM »

And so it begins.














Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: March 31, 2019, 06:42:30 PM »

And before anyone says "But Emerson's final poll in 2018 was accurate!", that's what we call "saving face." Unless you seriously believe there was a 12 point swing in the final 3 weeks of the election for literally no reason.

Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,805
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: March 31, 2019, 06:44:09 PM »


The Dem are to the left of Biden, Biden has yet to prove himself to the left side of the Dem party. He might not be the nominee
Logged
swords
Rookie
**
Posts: 81
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: March 31, 2019, 07:07:47 PM »

Emerson still hasn't learned anything about Nevada. Yawn.


Emerson   11/1 - 11/4   1197 LV   3.0   Rosen 49   Heller 45   Rosen +4
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_rosen-6304.html

Emerson*   11/4 - 11/5   600 LV   3.9   trump 46   clinton 47   johnson 4   Clinton +1

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6004.html
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: March 31, 2019, 07:10:32 PM »

Emerson still hasn't learned anything about Nevada. Yawn.


Emerson   11/1 - 11/4   1197 LV   3.0   Rosen 49   Heller 45   Rosen +4
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_rosen-6304.html

Emerson*   11/4 - 11/5   600 LV   3.9   trump 46   clinton 47   johnson 4   Clinton +1

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6004.html


Emerson*   10/10 - 10/12   625 LV   4.2   41   48   Heller +7

If the election was in 2 days, maybe you'd have a case to make.
Logged
swords
Rookie
**
Posts: 81
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: March 31, 2019, 07:18:38 PM »

Emerson still hasn't learned anything about Nevada. Yawn.


Emerson   11/1 - 11/4   1197 LV   3.0   Rosen 49   Heller 45   Rosen +4
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_rosen-6304.html

Emerson*   11/4 - 11/5   600 LV   3.9   trump 46   clinton 47   johnson 4   Clinton +1

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6004.html


Emerson*   10/10 - 10/12   625 LV   4.2   41   48   Heller +7

If the election was in 2 days, maybe you'd have a case to make.

During the race people change their minds.

Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,562
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: March 31, 2019, 07:29:31 PM »

I used to be skeptical of Nevada being a lean D state, but last year's elections have finally converted me. IceSpear, Xingkerui and others are indeed prophets when it comes to their knowledge of Nevada's voting habits and how consistently awful polling of the state seems to be.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: March 31, 2019, 07:30:06 PM »

Emerson still hasn't learned anything about Nevada. Yawn.


Emerson   11/1 - 11/4   1197 LV   3.0   Rosen 49   Heller 45   Rosen +4
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_rosen-6304.html

Emerson*   11/4 - 11/5   600 LV   3.9   trump 46   clinton 47   johnson 4   Clinton +1

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6004.html


Emerson*   10/10 - 10/12   625 LV   4.2   41   48   Heller +7

If the election was in 2 days, maybe you'd have a case to make.

During the race people change their minds.

Literally nothing happened in the final 3 weeks of the Nevada Senate race to change any minds, let alone that many. Occam's Razor says the poll was simply way off, as most Nevada polls tend to be (see post #26.)
Logged
swords
Rookie
**
Posts: 81
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: March 31, 2019, 07:38:43 PM »

Emerson still hasn't learned anything about Nevada. Yawn.


Emerson   11/1 - 11/4   1197 LV   3.0   Rosen 49   Heller 45   Rosen +4
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_rosen-6304.html

Emerson*   11/4 - 11/5   600 LV   3.9   trump 46   clinton 47   johnson 4   Clinton +1

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6004.html


Emerson*   10/10 - 10/12   625 LV   4.2   41   48   Heller +7

If the election was in 2 days, maybe you'd have a case to make.

During the race people change their minds.

Literally nothing happened in the final 3 weeks of the Nevada Senate race to change any minds, let alone that many. Occam's Razor says the poll was simply way off, as most Nevada polls tend to be (see post #26.)

A ‘Kavanaugh bump’ is boosting GOP Senate candidates – but its impact on Trump’s ratings is unclear
Published Sat, Oct 13 2018 • 10:45 AM EDT | Updated Mon, Oct 15 2018 • 7:59 AM EDT
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/13/kavanaugh-bump-is-boosting-gop-senate-candidates-but-trump-is-a-different-story.html

exactly same time.


Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: March 31, 2019, 08:54:11 PM »

After so many years, people still don't learn their lesson about NV polling.

NeVaDa PoLLs aRe iNacCuRaTe, sO tHe 2012-2018 and 2016-2018 R tReNd DoEsN’t MaTtEr.

TrUmP oVeRpErFoRmEd PoLlS iN 2016, sO rEpUbLiCaNs WiLl AlWaYs OvErPeRfOrM pOlLs AnD iT dOeSn'T mAtTeR tHaT nEvAdA pOlLs HaVe AlWaYs UnDeReStImAtEd DeMoCrAtS aNd RePuBlIcAnS hAvE hArDlY wOn AnY rAcEs In NeVaDa ReCeNtLy
Logged
lfromnj
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,221


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: March 31, 2019, 09:20:20 PM »

Ah sweet NV, the place where polls go to die.

That said, I don't believe this is an impossible state for Trump. If he wins the popular vote, he certainly can win the state.

I think the point of the meme is rather making fun of all the states Emerson polled today.

Nevada is not voting R while the other swing states vote D.
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,933
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: March 31, 2019, 09:32:50 PM »


You two most be new here.
Logged
Hammy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,711
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: April 01, 2019, 04:47:22 AM »

Emerson and Nevada should never be placed in the same paragraph together.
Logged
Sirius_
Ninja0428
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,086
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.00, S: -7.91


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: April 01, 2019, 07:58:18 AM »

After so many years, people still don't learn their lesson about NV polling.

NeVaDa PoLLs aRe iNacCuRaTe, sO tHe 2012-2018 and 2016-2018 R tReNd DoEsN’t MaTtEr.
Maybe you'd have a point if there was an R trend.
Logged
GM Team Member and Senator WB
weatherboy1102
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,629
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.61, S: -7.83

P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: April 01, 2019, 08:06:03 AM »

just proof that THE BEST PRESIDENT IN AMERICAN HISTORY will cruise to re-election. Let us also remember Nevada polls are usually biased in favor of Democrats
Logged
Annatar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 976
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: April 01, 2019, 08:14:35 AM »

I the poll is believable with Trump approval being 49% considering the 2018 exit polls had him at 48%. 

Nevada is one of the few Clinton states Trump has a chance to flip in 2020, in the 2018 exit polls Trump had an approval of 48% and Nevada has trended Republican in the past 2 elections, in 2008-2012 it shifted from a partisan lean of  D+5.3 to D+2.8, a R+2.5 trend, from 2012-2016 there was another R+2.5 trend which shifted the state to D+0.3. Nevada in 2016 basically had the same partisan lean as it did in 2004 when it voted exactly in line with the nation.

Clark County was also the only county with 2 million plus people where Trump did better then Romney. Nevada has very few liberal college whites and a lot of Hispanics and non-college whites where Trumps numbers haven't really fallen and might improve in 2020.
Logged
lfromnj
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,221


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: April 01, 2019, 08:48:21 AM »

After so many years, people still don't learn their lesson about NV polling.

NeVaDa PoLLs aRe iNacCuRaTe, sO tHe 2012-2018 and 2016-2018 R tReNd DoEsN’t MaTtEr.
Maybe you'd have a point if there was an R trend.


there literally was an R trend in 2016.
Logged
Sirius_
Ninja0428
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,086
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.00, S: -7.91


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: April 01, 2019, 08:51:59 AM »

After so many years, people still don't learn their lesson about NV polling.

NeVaDa PoLLs aRe iNacCuRaTe, sO tHe 2012-2018 and 2016-2018 R tReNd DoEsN’t MaTtEr.
Maybe you'd have a point if there was an R trend.


there literally was an R trend in 2016.
From 2016 to 2018 Nevada trended D.
Logged
lfromnj
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,221


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: April 01, 2019, 09:09:07 AM »

After so many years, people still don't learn their lesson about NV polling.

NeVaDa PoLLs aRe iNacCuRaTe, sO tHe 2012-2018 and 2016-2018 R tReNd DoEsN’t MaTtEr.
Maybe you'd have a point if there was an R trend.


there literally was an R trend in 2016.
From 2016 to 2018 Nevada trended D.

Not really.

In 2016 it was D+2 around. It was around +4.5(senate +5 Gov+4.1 the other races were a bit closer). Nation went from D+2 to D+8 or 9.

Even house went from D+1 in 2016 to D+6 in 2018.

Thats the definition of an R trend lol.
Logged
Sirius_
Ninja0428
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,086
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.00, S: -7.91


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: April 01, 2019, 09:10:25 AM »

After so many years, people still don't learn their lesson about NV polling.

NeVaDa PoLLs aRe iNacCuRaTe, sO tHe 2012-2018 and 2016-2018 R tReNd DoEsN’t MaTtEr.
Maybe you'd have a point if there was an R trend.


there literally was an R trend in 2016.
From 2016 to 2018 Nevada trended D.

Not really.

In 2016 it was D+2 around. It was around +4.5(senate +5 Gov+4.1 the other races were a bit closer). Nation went from D+2 to D+8 or 9.

Even house went from D+1 in 2016 to D+6 in 2018.

Thats the definition of an R trend lol.
You really have to twist numbers to make that an R trend. How some people are able to convince themselves that a 5 point shift towards Democrats is the definition of an R trend is beyond me.
Logged
lfromnj
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,221


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: April 01, 2019, 09:13:54 AM »

After so many years, people still don't learn their lesson about NV polling.

NeVaDa PoLLs aRe iNacCuRaTe, sO tHe 2012-2018 and 2016-2018 R tReNd DoEsN’t MaTtEr.
Maybe you'd have a point if there was an R trend.


there literally was an R trend in 2016.
From 2016 to 2018 Nevada trended D.

Not really.

In 2016 it was D+2 around. It was around +4.5(senate +5 Gov+4.1 the other races were a bit closer). Nation went from D+2 to D+8 or 9.

Even house went from D+1 in 2016 to D+6 in 2018.

Thats the definition of an R trend lol.
You really have to twist numbers to make that an R trend. How some people are able to convince themselves that a 5 point shift towards Democrats is the definition of an R trend is beyond me.


But thats literally the definition of a trend. It moved right compared to the rest of the nation. For example NC moved left in 2016 to the rest of the nation despite swinging R. Trend does not mean swing.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,354


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: April 01, 2019, 09:22:23 AM »

After so many years, people still don't learn their lesson about NV polling.

NeVaDa PoLLs aRe iNacCuRaTe, sO tHe 2012-2018 and 2016-2018 R tReNd DoEsN’t MaTtEr.
Maybe you'd have a point if there was an R trend.


there literally was an R trend in 2016.
From 2016 to 2018 Nevada trended D.

Not really.

In 2016 it was D+2 around. It was around +4.5(senate +5 Gov+4.1 the other races were a bit closer). Nation went from D+2 to D+8 or 9.

Even house went from D+1 in 2016 to D+6 in 2018.

Thats the definition of an R trend lol.
You really have to twist numbers to make that an R trend. How some people are able to convince themselves that a 5 point shift towards Democrats is the definition of an R trend is beyond me.


But thats literally the definition of a trend. It moved right compared to the rest of the nation. For example NC moved left in 2016 to the rest of the nation despite swinging R. Trend does not mean swing.

No, it's not.  Unsurprisingly, some states trend more than others.  By your logic, any state that trends less than the average amount toward one party, is trending toward the other party.  This is completely nonsensical. 

Let's turn it around: suppose that in the next election, the national average is R+20.  Some states are R+30, while others are R+10.  Did the R+10 states trend D?  Of course not; they trended R, but the trend was less than the average.

Basically, if a state is D+(any significant number), it trended D.  If it's R+(any significant number), it trended R.  That's the definition of trend.
Logged
lfromnj
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,221


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: April 01, 2019, 09:23:29 AM »

After so many years, people still don't learn their lesson about NV polling.

NeVaDa PoLLs aRe iNacCuRaTe, sO tHe 2012-2018 and 2016-2018 R tReNd DoEsN’t MaTtEr.
Maybe you'd have a point if there was an R trend.


there literally was an R trend in 2016.
From 2016 to 2018 Nevada trended D.

Not really.

In 2016 it was D+2 around. It was around +4.5(senate +5 Gov+4.1 the other races were a bit closer). Nation went from D+2 to D+8 or 9.

Even house went from D+1 in 2016 to D+6 in 2018.

Thats the definition of an R trend lol.
You really have to twist numbers to make that an R trend. How some people are able to convince themselves that a 5 point shift towards Democrats is the definition of an R trend is beyond me.


But thats literally the definition of a trend. It moved right compared to the rest of the nation. For example NC moved left in 2016 to the rest of the nation despite swinging R. Trend does not mean swing.

No, it's not.  Unsurprisingly, some states trend more than others.  By your logic, any state that trends less than the average amount toward one party, is trending toward the other party.  This is completely nonsensical. 

Let's turn it around: suppose that in the next election, the national average is R+20.  Some states are R+30, while others are R+10.  Did the R+10 states trend D?  Of course not; they trended R, but the trend was less than the average.

Basically, if a state is D+(any significant number), it trended D.  If it's R+(any significant number), it trended R.  That's the definition of trend.


https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html

This is literally the defintion of trend as used by atlas forum. Look at 2016 trends.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,354


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: April 01, 2019, 09:27:14 AM »

After so many years, people still don't learn their lesson about NV polling.

NeVaDa PoLLs aRe iNacCuRaTe, sO tHe 2012-2018 and 2016-2018 R tReNd DoEsN’t MaTtEr.
Maybe you'd have a point if there was an R trend.


there literally was an R trend in 2016.
From 2016 to 2018 Nevada trended D.

Not really.

In 2016 it was D+2 around. It was around +4.5(senate +5 Gov+4.1 the other races were a bit closer). Nation went from D+2 to D+8 or 9.

Even house went from D+1 in 2016 to D+6 in 2018.

Thats the definition of an R trend lol.
You really have to twist numbers to make that an R trend. How some people are able to convince themselves that a 5 point shift towards Democrats is the definition of an R trend is beyond me.


But thats literally the definition of a trend. It moved right compared to the rest of the nation. For example NC moved left in 2016 to the rest of the nation despite swinging R. Trend does not mean swing.

No, it's not.  Unsurprisingly, some states trend more than others.  By your logic, any state that trends less than the average amount toward one party, is trending toward the other party.  This is completely nonsensical. 

Let's turn it around: suppose that in the next election, the national average is R+20.  Some states are R+30, while others are R+10.  Did the R+10 states trend D?  Of course not; they trended R, but the trend was less than the average.

Basically, if a state is D+(any significant number), it trended D.  If it's R+(any significant number), it trended R.  That's the definition of trend.


https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html

This is literally the defintion of trend as used by atlas forum. Look at 2016 trends.

OK, I'll concede the point.  I think the problem in the discussion, though, is confusion between the terms swing and trend (and I'll admit I was one of those mixing them).
Logged
lfromnj
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,221


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: April 01, 2019, 09:36:09 AM »

After so many years, people still don't learn their lesson about NV polling.

NeVaDa PoLLs aRe iNacCuRaTe, sO tHe 2012-2018 and 2016-2018 R tReNd DoEsN’t MaTtEr.
Maybe you'd have a point if there was an R trend.


there literally was an R trend in 2016.
From 2016 to 2018 Nevada trended D.

Not really.

In 2016 it was D+2 around. It was around +4.5(senate +5 Gov+4.1 the other races were a bit closer). Nation went from D+2 to D+8 or 9.

Even house went from D+1 in 2016 to D+6 in 2018.

Thats the definition of an R trend lol.
You really have to twist numbers to make that an R trend. How some people are able to convince themselves that a 5 point shift towards Democrats is the definition of an R trend is beyond me.


But thats literally the definition of a trend. It moved right compared to the rest of the nation. For example NC moved left in 2016 to the rest of the nation despite swinging R. Trend does not mean swing.

No, it's not.  Unsurprisingly, some states trend more than others.  By your logic, any state that trends less than the average amount toward one party, is trending toward the other party.  This is completely nonsensical. 

Let's turn it around: suppose that in the next election, the national average is R+20.  Some states are R+30, while others are R+10.  Did the R+10 states trend D?  Of course not; they trended R, but the trend was less than the average.

Basically, if a state is D+(any significant number), it trended D.  If it's R+(any significant number), it trended R.  That's the definition of trend.


https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html

This is literally the defintion of trend as used by atlas forum. Look at 2016 trends.

OK, I'll concede the point.  I think the problem in the discussion, though, is confusion between the terms swing and trend (and I'll admit I was one of those mixing them).



I mean its literally my sig. Anyway thx for conceding the point as it is a pretty common but funny mistake. Still waiting for Ninja.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.101 seconds with 12 queries.