Emerson - Nevada (Everyone, but Biden, trails Trump)

[Annatar]

Well Nevada did trend R if you want to look at the 2016-18 swing but I don't believe in using midterm results to figure out trends, trends are calculated only using Presidential results and what happens in a midterm in any case doesn't really say much about future trends.

Look at Pennsylvania in 2006, Casey defeated the incumbent Republican Senator by 17%, I'm pretty sure that's one of the biggest margins of defeat for an incumbent senator in history and the Democratic governor won re-election by 21% and Dems picked up 4 house seats, complete slaughter for the GOP in Pennsylvania, yet in 2008 the state trended R+1.9 moving from a lean of D+5 in 2004 to D+3.1 in 2008 despite the 2006 outcome.

[lfromnj]

Well Nevada did trend R if you want to look at the 2016-18 swing but I don't believe in using midterm results to figure out trends, trends are calculated only using Presidential results and what happens in a midterm in any case doesn't really say much about future trends.

Look at Pennsylvania in 2006, Casey defeated the incumbent Republican Senator by 17%, I'm pretty sure that's one of the biggest margins of defeat for an incumbent senator in history and the Democratic governor won re-election by 21% and Dems picked up 4 house seats, complete slaughter for the GOP in Pennsylvania, yet in 2008 the state trended R+1.9 moving from a lean of D+5 in 2004 to D+3.1 in 2008 despite the 2006 outcome.

Oh im not that big a fan of using midterm results. For example Iowa/OH and other #populist areas trended D while #shrillneoliberal areas had a light R trend mostly due to bounceback. Im just stating the definition of a trend and by that definition Nevada Trended R in 2016 and 2018 relative to 2012 and 2016.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Based on observing the results of every single federal election in Nevada in the past 15 years, Trump will lose Nevada by between 2 and 5 points.

[S019]

Warren losing by 8, shows that with her, it would be a Tossup, Lean D with everyone else, also this corresponds to Emerson's new poll, showing Warren losing the PV

[SCNCmod]

Why is Beto (arguably the only Top candidate from the Southwest) ... not included in a Nevada head-to-head poll?